Week One has come and gone and it was a doozy. Spread Awareness did what we always do, and that is win. We went 9-5, which is three safeties and a field goal vs one safety and a field goal. GREAT JOB BY US! There were some bad beats (looking at you, Illinois) and some surprising bets that actually won (Buffalo and Notre Dame, never a doubt!).
We should probably mention something about the queen dying but I don’t see how that will change my bets this week so why would I talk about her…except…isn’t she also the Queen of Australia? How does that work? Is this good news or bad news for them? I feel like Australians probably hate the queen, but I could be very wrong. My knowledge of the world outside of the US is basically that Jamaica has nice beaches and Canadians talk funny, so someone help me out here. Mainly, I just want to know if Tory Taylor is going to be mourning her loss, or possibly hungover from partying. I am starting to get worried that he might not be 100% focused Saturday…These are things we need to know, which is why you come to Spread Awareness. I bet no other gambling blog has asked these tough questions.
*** Note before we get to the picks – there are some really bad games this week that I will not be betting on because I already have to watch the Iowa offense play football, I don’t need more misery in my life. Sorry, Wagner vs Rutgers, Indiana State vs Purdue, and Idaho vs Indiana.
BIG TEN GAMES OF THE WEEK OF THE CENTURY
Iowa State +3.5 @ Iowa (3:00 PM CST, BTN)
A lot of the talk this week focused on how bad Iowa's offense looked last weekend. Sure, Saturday was a national embarrassment, but let’s not overlook the fact that we scored seven points without a touchdown, and won a game. That my friends, is called efficiency. Is it sustainable? Who knows, I don’t think any team has ever spent the offseason perfecting the "don’t score touchdowns and just punt the ball and play suffocating defense" strategy before but it looks like Iowa is giving it a shot. Maybe you are all just dumb and this strategy will revolutionize the game of football. Who are YOU to question Kirk and Brian Ferentz? HOW MANY BIG TEN GAMES HAVE YOU WON??????
What I am trying to say is relax. We are FINE! The Ferentzes have this completely under control, no reason to think they won’t get the offense turned around! You know, Spencer Petras is due for a big game. He just needs to find his RHYTHM, because he is a RHYTHM quarterback. Sure, he lost the RHYTHM like nine games ago, but he will find it soon! And to be fair, we can't put all the blame on him. Sure, the receivers did a good job getting open but they need to be better about being taller. Can’t be out there wide open just letting the ball sail six feet over your head. MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT AND GROW.
Oh well, at least we get to play Iowa State this week. They scored 42 points in their opener including four touchdown passes. That is probably four more than Iowa will throw all season. Luckily for us, we don’t need the offense to beat Iowa State. Need I remind you of what happened last year?
FUN FACT: We know Iowa didn't score a TD last week, but it only had 166 yards of offense as well. It's the first time an FBS team has won a game with 175 yards or fewer since Iowa did it last season (173) in a 27-17 win over Iowa State.— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) September 8, 2022
So yeah, if the Iowa offense looks like it did last week Iowa State should probably blow us out, but it is Iowa State. It is Matt Campbell. Iowa is winning this game, could be 4-0, or maybe the offense will randomly show up and score 40 points…Who knows! Bet on the Hawks, bet on the under.
PICK: Iowa -3.5, UNDER 40.5
Duke +10 @ Northwestern (11:00 AM CST, FOX)
The nerds are back to fight again this year, wooo! Duke won this game last year after scoring three touchdowns in the first quarter before letting Northwestern back into the game. Sure, Northwestern dominated Nebraska, but that is Nebraska, they are not a football powerhouse like Duke.
PICK: Duke +10, UNDER 57
Arkansas State +44.5 @ #3 Ohio State (11:00 AM CST, BTN)
This is a huge spread for a team that didn’t look great offensively versus Notre Dame last week. I am not touching the spread, but Ark State scored 58 points in their opener so I will dabble in the over because why wouldn't you??
PICK: OVER 68.5
Ohio +24.5 vs Penn State (11:00 AM CST, ABC)
Penn State knocked off Big Ten preseason darling Purdue in Week One, but now they have to face off against the dangerous Ohio Bobcats, who are undoubtedly playing this season for their former coach and our lord and savior Frank Solich. It is a shame this game isn’t at Frank Solich field, if it was then Penn State would be in trouble. The Nittany Lions take out the Bobcats here with ease, which is what would probably happen if a nittany lion and a bobcat actually fought.
PICK: Penn State -24.5
Washington State +17.5 @ #19 Wisconsin (2:30 PM CST, FOX)
Wisconsin didn’t have any issues with Illinois State last week, winning 38-0. Braelon Allen had an easy 148 yards and two touchdowns, including a 96-yard run. Damn, that must be nice. Graham Mertz went 14/16 for 219 yards and a touchdown…Damn, that must be nice.
Washington State barely snuck by Idaho, they will not be doing any sneaking here. Badgers win BIG.
PICK: Wisconsin -17.5
Maryland -27 @ Charlotte (3:00 PM CST, BTN)
Why is Maryland playing at Charlotte? What are we doing here? THIS IS THE BIG TEN! You can’t be sending teams to play at Conference USA stadiums, just a terrible look for the mighty Big Ten. No wonder THE ALLIANCE crumbled.
Charlotte lost by 17 to William and Mary and is on their 3rd string QB. I don't like betting on Maryland, but it feels like the only option here.
PICK: Maryland -27
Virginia +4 vs Illinois (3:00 PM CST, ESPNU)
Well, Illinois had a perfect chance to get to 2-0 last week and make my futures bet on them winning over 4.5 games look really good. Instead, they choked and now they are going to have to scramble to win five games. The next two are winnable, but then they are in trouble.
PICK: Illinois -4
Akron +34.5 @ Michigan State (3:00 PM CST, BTN)
Michigan State looked very good last week versus Western Michigan, a MAC team that is miles better than Akron. The Spartans have some dudes at receiver and aren’t going to have any issues moving the ball against a Zips team that will finish towards the bottom of the MAC, the only question is when does MSU call off the dogs. Hopefully, they call them off when up by 33.
PICK: Akron +34.5, OVER 55.5
Georgia Southern +23.5 vs Nebraska (6:30 PM CST, FS1)
Nebraska finally broke its seven-game losing streak and despite rumors swirling that Urban Meyer is definitely going to be the next Nebraska coach, Scott Frost trudges on, doing stupid things at every turn. Last week he used three timeouts while North Dakota was driving to end the first half which basically let them score the game-tying touchdown. Sick! A lot of rain on tap for Saturday in Lincoln, look for this to be a sloppy game that Georgia Southern keeps close for far too long.
PICK: Georgia Southern +23.5
Hawaii +51.5 @ #4 Michigan (7:00 PM CST, BTN)
I often say teams stink at football, but Hawaii, well, they may be the stinkiest. I love the Rainbow Warriors, but they have major issues. They lost by 53 to Vanderbilt and followed it up with a 32-point loss to Western Kentucky. It is going to be a long year on the Big Island.
51.5 points is an absurd line, but Michigan is going to do exactly what they did they Colorado State, which is score 50 points and then give up a late TD. It will be a blowout, but Hawaii covers.
PICK: Hawaii +51.5, UNDER 67
- Overall: 12-8
- ATS: 9-6
- O/U: 3-2