SPREAD AWARENESS WEEK 5: BIG NOON, BIGGER GAMES, BIGGEST BETS

By Nickdo on September 30, 2022 at 10:46 am
BERT BOWL
© Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
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Week 5 is here and we had a slight bounce back following our first losing week of the year by going 7-6-1. The good? Iowa, Miami (OH), and Wake Forest were all top-tier picks that were needed because our Wisconsin pick was maybe the worst one of the year (and that is saying A LOT).

This week is a big week. Iowa vs Michigan. I probably don’t have to remind you of what happened the last time these two teams met, but let’s reminisce.

I drove all the way from Lincoln, NE to Indianapolis. I was feeling so confident in the Hawkeyes as the day went on that I decided to place a SUBSTANTIAL wager on our beloved Hawkeyes and on the UNDER. This was a terrible idea. We got murdered and Michigan ran the score up so much that the under did not hit. It was brutal and I will never forget leaving the game, buying the cheapest cigar I could find because I didn’t deserve anything nice, and smoking it outside of the Iowa bar while the live band sang "Shallow." It was maybe the lowest point in my sports fan life, which is saying a lot because I've been a Kansas City Royals fan for 30 years.

OK, enough chitchat, Let’s get to the picks.

BIG TEN GAMES OF THE WEEK OF THE CENTURY

#4 Michigan -10.5 @ Iowa (11:00 AM CST, Fox)
Revengers

Revenge game! What happened during the Iowa vs Michigan Big Ten Championship Game was gross, rude, and very disrespectful. I am, of course, talking about the Michigan fan who, in the middle of the third quarter turned to me and said, “Well, sorry Iowa is going to lose but at least the under is going to hit!” The under did not hit. I hope that guy is sitting at home with gout.

As for the actual game, well it was bad! Is there anything that makes you think the same thing won’t happen this weekend? Not really! Yes, the game is at Kinnick Stadium,which helps. I am sure you have all seen Iowa’s record at home versus Top 5 Teams, and having Kinnick get called “the place where top 5 teams go to die” all week which is kind of awesome. But besides that, can we ACTUALLY win? Sure, but only if the Hawks follow the SPREAD AWARENESS KEYS TO THE GAME™:

  • Score 1 (one) offensive touchdown.
  • Score defensive touchdown(s).
  • Let Tory Taylor cook.
  • Don’t let Blake Corum run for 500 yards.

That's it. If we can do those four things, we can win the game, it's that simple! A safety or four would also help, but beggars can’t be choosers.

As for the pick, well, the scars of the Big Ten Championship game are still fresh. I would love to take our Hawkeyes to cover here but I just can’t do that. I hope I am wrong. We are also on the #UNDER for this one. Michigan and Iowa have both gone UNDER in three out of their four games this season, so this was an easy choice…maybe too easy?? Oh no, should we take the OVER????

PICK: Michigan -10.5 GAME, UNDER 42.5

Purdue +12 @ #21 Minnesota (11:00 AM CST, ESPN2)

The Gophers continue to row along. They dominated Michigan State on the road last week and have only given up 24 points through four games. The Gophers might be for real, which makes my stomach hurt.

Purdue gave up 419 yards as they squeaked out a win over FAU last week. They might be without Aidan O’Connell at QB again, so we could get the version of Purdue where they run a different QB onto the field after every play. Unfortunately, that only works against Iowa. Minnesota stays hot and wins big.

PICK: Minnesota -12

Illinois +7 @ Wisconsin (11:00 AM CST, BTN)

The Bert Bowl! Bret Bielema returns to Madison to take on a Wisconsin team that just isn’t very good. Ohio State manhandled them in a way I don’t think I have ever seen a Wisconsin team get manhandled. They looked slow, unathletic, and like they wanted to be anywhere but on that field. Now they get to play their former head coach who leads a team with a defense that enjoys smacking the crap out of people.

Will Bert be able to take down his former team? Probably not, but they should be able to keep it close in what will surely be a low, low, low-scoring game.

PICK: UNDER 43.5, Illinois +7

Michigan State +8 @ Maryland (2:30 PM CST, FS1)

From a Top 15 ranking to being a two-score underdog to Maryland, life comes at you fast. Michigan State beat up a couple of MAC teams to open the season and some people (us) thought they were really good. Then they got steamrolled by Washington and Minnesota and now their fans are wondering why Mel Tucker is getting a billion dollars to be their coach. Rough.

Maryland gave Michigan a run for their money but at what cost? Their QB got mauled and is questionable to play, and if he doesn’t play they are in trouble. Plus, it is never really safe to put trust in Maryland. They could be good but then they remember they are Maryland and do stuff like this:

I hate this because we said we were #DONE with Michigan State, but we have to put our differences aside for this one. Spartans cover.

PICK: Michigan State +8

Rutgers -39.5 @ #3 Ohio State (2:30 PM CST, BTN)

I thought Wisconsin had a chance against Ohio State last week. WRONG. No more doubting the Buckeyes. They have been running the score up on everyone WITHOUT their best WR. Don’t expect Rutgers to put up much of a fight.

PICK: Ohio State -39.5

Northwestern +25 @ #11 Penn State (2:30 PM CST, ESPN)

Northwestern is awful, but they are getting a sweet-looking new stadium that will be great for visiting teams to take over every Saturday. Also, it will be great to go watch famous Chicago bands like Disturbed and Fallout Boy play concerts there!

Penn State has looked dominant all year but this is their last tune-up game before a bye week and then a brutal stretch where they play at #4 Michigan and then host #21 Minnesota and #3 Ohio State. We are going to find out real fast if this team is for real or if they have benefited from a soft schedule. Penn State strolls into the BYE week after beating up a lifeless Northwestern squad.

PICK: Penn State -25

Indiana +5.5 @ Nebraska (6:30 PM CST, BTN)

So, to recap: Nebraska fires their head coach, loses by 90 to Oklahoma, fires their defensive coordinator, has a BYE week, and now they are a 5.5-point favorite??? This is crazy, right? RIGHT???

crazy pills

WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE? NEBRASKA IS AWFUL. A-W-F-U-L. THEY SHOULD NOT BE FAVORED AGAINST ANYONE. Could Nebraska turn things around? Sure, but what have they done over the last 5+ years to make you think that is possible? Nothing, and until they actually show some sort of pulse there is absolutely no reason to bet on them, especially as a 5.5-point favorite.

The Hoosiers might not be a good team, but they have three wins and I am fairly certain they still hold a grudge against Nebraska because Scott Frost complained about not playing them enough. They will go into Lincoln and win this one as the Huskers continue to search for rock bottom.

PICK: Indiana +5.5

TOP 25 GAMES OF THE WEEK OF THE YEAR OF THE DAY

#14 Ole Miss -7 vs #7 Kentucky: Top Ten team as a touchdown dog? Seems like a trap. The Wildcats have no offensive line which must be Mike Stoops’ way of showing Nebraska that he is prepared to take over. The Lane Train covers.

#22 Wake Forest +7 vs #23 Florida State: This game is going to have lots of points. Maybe all of the points. OVER 64 is the play.

#2 Alabama -17 @ #20 Arkansas: Only one game between these two has been decided by single digits in the last 8 years. Don’t pick against Bama. Roll Tide.

#9 Oklahoma State +2.5 @ #16 Baylor: Big 12 title game rematch that won’t be as close as last year's game. Like Iowa, Oklahoma State has #REVENGE on their mind, the only difference is the Cowboys are actually the better team in this one.

#10 NC State +7 @ Clemson: Unlike Clemson’s game last week against Wake Forest where defense was not allowed, this game will be low scoring, especially with what's left of Hurricane Ian bringing wind and rain. NC State covers.

 

YTD Record

  • Overall: 35-28-1
  • ATS: 27-20-1
  • O/U: 8-8
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