I think the key for Iowa this year is that every wrestler has the potential to get to the semi-finals. In the first 6, Lugo will need a good draw and it will be a reach for Teasdale/Murin, but Young, ADS, and Lee should all be counted on for SF appearance with a legitimate chance at Finals appearances. That's actually quite exciting. If I'm betting, I would honestly bet on 4 of the 5 making the semis (not Teasdale/Murin, but I'm hopeful), and then 2 of the 4 making the finals - Lee and one of ADS or Young. The fact that all 3 could would be great.
As we go on, I'm hoping that Iowa will have 6 of the first 7 weights in semifinals and 7 of 10 overall with an outside but legitimate shot at 8. That would be quite exciting. When my HS won state, we only took 11 (of 14 weights) wrestlers, but we had 9 in the semis. 6 of us made it to the finals, and though only 2 of us ended up winning, nailing the semis and getting a healthy number into the finals helped us destroy the competition (largest ever point total by a big school).
So yeah, get 7-8 into the semis and 3-4 in the Finals, and I like their chances.
I don't think that's PROBABLE like I might for past PSU teams, but it's definitely possible.
And 4 hours later, just to see 6-8 Iowa wrestlers in the semis would be outstanding.
I think you can divide the likely semi-finalists into a few distinct categories.
Heavy favorites (based on skill and/or weight composition):
Spencer, (DeSanto at 133, and probably at 141 too), Young, Bull, and Kemerer.
Legitimate possibilities (based on seeding and/or weight composition):
Lugo, Warner, Cassioppi
Outside chances (depending on draws and/or a major level jump that we have yet to see):
Teasdale/Murin (33/41) and Wilcke
So the good news is that you've got eight guys between the legitimate/heavy favorite categories, regardless of what you get from Teasdale/Murin and Wilcke.
I think a realistic path to a title could look something like 8-9 AA's, six semi-finalists, 3-4 finalists, and two champs. Obviously those things could fluctuate and Iowa would still be in decent shape (i.e. only eight AA's but 4-5 finalists, or only three finalists but all three win a title).
And what helps any of the various permutations is that they've got what looks to be some serious bonus point scorers in the lineup (Spencer, DeSanto, Bull, Kemerer, Cassioppi). That helps negate potential unexpected pitfalls that a guy or two might suffer in the bracket, and if things are going well it only buoys the team points you're already racking up.
New phone, who dis?