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houksyndrome

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MEMBER SINCE   September 27, 2016

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Comment 14 Jan 2021

That picture of the guy talking to his girl about Keegan Murray hit close to home. I think I’ve said that exact thing, verbatim, to my wife. She now knows all about things like adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, man vs zone defense and +/- data. It’s been a very educational quarantine for her. 
 

Comment 08 Jan 2021

He's only going to get 5-8 minutes per game at center this year, unless disaster strikes.  It's hard to get in any kind of groove with so few minutes.

Comment 08 Jan 2021

My $0.02 is this:  Fran knows we'll need Nunge to play a big role in the future (definitely next season and possibly this season if Garza gets in foul trouble or gets injured) so Nunge's development is important.  So Fran wants to get Nunge ~15 minutes per game.  But that means that Nunge must play alongside Garza.  Cutting Garza's minutes to 25 mpg would be a bad idea.  So that means we are stuck with ~8 minutes of Garza+Nunge lineups each game.  We can't have them both operating in the post simultaneously.  It would be a crowded mess.  If we want to keep Garza in the post then that means Nunge plays on the perimeter.  We are asking for trouble if too many of our perimeter players are unwilling to attempt outside shots.  Already Connor and Joe T rarely shoot from outside adding another non-shooter might really gum up the works (it would allow the other team to keep 2-3 defenders around Garza at all times).

Garza's outside shooting has progressed to the point where we could consider using Garza on the perimeter and having Nunge post up, that's worth exploring.

The ideal solution is for Nunge to start making 3s.  I've seen his current shooting %ages.  They aren't good.  But he's still readjusting to playing in actual games and the adrenaline associated with that.  I'm willing to wait a bit longer before cutting him off from three point land.  He shot well from outside for most of his freshman year before a late season slump and he shot well from outside in high school.

Comment 04 Jan 2021

I can certainly think of a number of players who support your theory: Fredrick, Bohannon, Oglesby (good as a Fr).

Another thing that your comment reminded me of is Ken Pomeroy's finding that players improve at shooting over the course of the season and freshmen improve more than sophomores who improve more than juniors who improve more than seniors.  I think this is due to players getting used to the quality of defense.  Fran isn't shy about giving his guys significant PT as freshmen, which could speed that developmental curve along, leading to elevated accuracy as freshmen with a flatter than usual upward trajectory thereafter.

Comment 04 Jan 2021

The way to look for evidence of that is to examine usage rate (or, alternatively, number of shot attempts) over time for each cohort.  There's no doubt that what you say happens (i.e. guys taking on larger roles as they gain experience) and there's no doubt that it is harder to maintain a particular efficiency level as your usage rate increases.  But I don't see why that would be so different for Fran versus the rest of the conference.  I'll take a look at it, though.

Comment 03 Jan 2021

You might be interested in this article by Ken Pomeroy

It's behind a paywall (and the season is ongoing so the conclusions are preliminary).  Right now it looks like home team is not getting as many favorable foul calls as usual (there's usually a 2.1 "home foul advantage" that's down to 0.8), the point differential in favor of the home team is down from +3.6 to +2.3 and the home team's victory probability has fallen from 60% to 56%.

Also, I highly recommend a subscription to The Athletic for those that can afford it.

Comment 22 Dec 2020

This is a very worrisome game for me.  They kicked the crap out of us last year and they tend to be strong in the areas where we are weak (i.e. offensive rebounding and physicality/toughness in general).  It's also very important.  You can't lose too many conference games if you're going to win the Big Ten and, for us to have the kind of NCAA Tourney performance that we are all hoping for, we will need a good seed.  We have 13 more games against the Ken Pom top 30, starting tonight, and we are going to have to win a healthy percentage of them if we are to achieve our goals this season.

Comment 12 Dec 2020

Shades of 2018, where we lost due to special teams catastrophes, in the second half there.  Still, we ended up winning by 21 against the team that I, personally, want us to beat the most each year.  There were some spectacular plays made by us too.  I would have liked a 35-0 absolute throttling even more but, yeah, we just beat Wisconsin 28-7 in a game where they were lucky to be that close.  That's actually kind of a big deal.

Comment 12 Dec 2020

Regarding the FT disparity, I've been slowly working on an article or two about that subject.  You are quite correct in that his teams are consistently very good at drawing fouls and also very good at not committing fouls.

Comment 15 Oct 2020

It doesn't sound like the report reached a conclusion about the drug testing, one way or the other.  Here is what the report actually says about drug testing (page 15):

Numerous individuals also raised more frequent drug testing of Black players as a concern. Athletic Director Barta told investigators he became aware of these complaints in June 2020 and he and his staff have started a review of the Department’s testing protocols and will work with the outside vendor, Aegis, to improve the process. The Program Manager in charge of student-athlete drug testing told investigators that testing staff does not know the race of individuals selected for testing. Student-athletes are tested randomly and if they have previously tested positive or produced a diluted sample they may be selected for further testing. The Program Manager reviews the lists of players selected for testing and removes individuals who have been tested more frequently. She explained that the Head Coach may also request that specific players be tested, but the coach must have a legitimate reason for making such a request and the request must be reviewed and approved by the supervising physician before the player will be tested. Head Coach Ferentz acknowledged that changes need to be made to the program’s drug testing policy, but he denies that Black student athletes are tested at a higher rate. He reviewed the testing data from the 2019-20 academic year and determined that three players were tested three times. Of those three players, two were White and one was Black. He identified additional ways that the testing program could be improved to provide more privacy to players. Currently, the Program Manager administers the testing program within the football building, and Head Coach Ferentz intends to remove testing from inside the football building moving forward.

What are needed to make a conclusion are the actual data (number of times tested and/or probability of being chosen for tests) for every player on the team.  Then, and only then, can we make a conclusion about whether or not the testing process was truly random.  BTW, I bolded a few lines that drew my attention.  If Ferentz can select certain players for testing then that could easily skew the testing rates, even if the testing agency's selection process is random.