I completely agree on the aggressive perimeter hedging/switching by our bigs. Garza made a lot of improvements last season in terms of rim protection and I think he'd be even better if they schemed to keep him closer to the rim. We will have a couple of taller options to use at forward as well this season (Pat McCaffery and the Murray twins) so that might also improve the rim protection.
Syracuse 2003 (Melo) is one of them.
Does anyone want to take a guess at who the three teams to win a national championship without a top 10 offense were?
Thanks for the kind words!
I do think the on-field product has improved since Brian showed up and I have generally liked the overall direction of the program during the last few seasons - the talent level has seemed to be on the rise - compared with 2011-2014.
That said, if Brian is abusive then he needs to change or be gone - or just be gone and he can change somewhere else.
That bit about permanent lung damage was more of a guesstimate than anything else. It was irresponsible of me to present that in the manner that I did. I apologize. I have also been looking for an official stat on that, without success.
The guesstimate was based on intuition, if a person is being intubated that means their lungs have become severely damaged. I was also assuming that the lung has poor regenerative capacity, which actually may not be the case:
The bottom line is that long-term lung damage is probably only going to be occurring in patients with the most severe symptoms and a significant fraction of those patients die, so the number of long-term lung damage patients is going to be within, say, an order of magnitude of the deaths.
I also subscribed to that "well that's just Iowa as a state" way of thinking. It's notable, throughout all of this, that I don't think I've ever heard a single player complain about the fanbase or, more generally, the people of the state.
I have some thoughts about the calculations in the Dodd article.
First, it is quite reasonable to project that 30-50% of college football players will become infected with COVID if they play the season. The players spend so much time in close proximity + the fact that it can be spread by asymptomatic people => it will spread rampantly within teams.
So I think there will be thousands of players infected. The question is how many of them die. To calculate that, we need to know the probability of an infected person dying (IFR), for 18-22 year old males. I don't know that number, but it sounds to me like the Dodd article uses a 0.1% IFR. I think 0.1% IFR might be a significant overestimate for 18-22 year olds. In China, the 10-19 year old age group had an IFR of 0.007%. In France, and on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship, the IFR in the 20-29 year old age group was also 0.007%. In China, the 20-29 year old age group had an IFR of 0.03%. So a 0.1% IFR seems too high to me. 0.1% is more in line with the CFR (percentage of identified cases who die), which for 20-44 year olds, is about 0.1-0.2% in the USA. CFR is always higher than IFR because not all cases are identified (asymptomatic and weak cases). (All numbers from wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_due_to_COVID-19)
I ran some rough calculations on this a few days back and estimated 0.4 player deaths and a 33% probability of at least one player dying (with IFR = 0.007%) and 1.73 player deaths and an 82% probability of at least one player dying (with IFR = 0.03%). So there is a very significant chance that at least one player will die from this, even if the IFR is much better than that assumed in the Dodd article
Furthermore, it should be noted that coaches and support staff will also get this and, since they are older, some of them will die.
Lastly, permanent lung damage occurs in patients who require intubation. Based on the fact that about half of intubated patients die, I'd estimate the number of players who receive permanent lung damage to be approximately equal (or maybe a few fold higher) than the number of players who die.
I did a little digging yesterday and found a review https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3809029/ that cobbled together lethality data from the 2009 H1N1pdm09 influenza, and breaks it down by age group. That flu also showed increased lethality (CFR, deaths / confirmed cases) in elderly populations with at least a 10X CFR increase in patients 65+ relative to patients under 20. So at least for that bad 2009 flu, there was also dramatically increased risk in elderly patients. Not sure if it holds for other influenza strains but I'd be surprised if it didn't.
Great info! Thanks!
This whole thing is extremely disturbing; however, the selective testing of black football players is particularly appalling. Whoever is responsible for that needs to be fired. There can't possibly be any justification for such a policy. Just awful.
It pains me to read these things.
Samson Evans should have tried growing his hair out. I bet that would have done the trick and he would have become powerful enough to raze Camp Randall Stadium, or at least trash the visitors locker room.
B makes logical sense if Bollers sees himself as a 3-4 OLB. Both Wisconsin and Nebraska play a 3-4, right?
Garza and Haluska. One could make arguments in favor of Uthoff but, at the end of the day, Garza is just way more confident, way more determined and will simply refuse to allow himself to be stopped. Uthoff will settle for some fadeaway long twos, miss some of them and that will be that.
White vs. Haluska was a tough call but I went with Haluska simply because he has a better overall offensive skill set and has an easier time scoring on plays when he's being defended. White was great at exploiting defensive lapses and finding easy buckets that way. True, White absolutely RUINED undersized defenders (Marc Loving of Ohio State comes to mind). But I think Haluska will have the easier time scoring.
I agree with what you say about shooters who can't create off the dribble. But in a one on one game, if there is a dramatic size mismatch, the larger player can simply back down the smaller player and, since there are not going to be any double teams, the smaller player would be helpless to stop it.
Uthoff, Moss and White for me. Kinda shaky about Moss vs. Fuller but I think Moss's excellent jump shot would see him through here.
lol, the technical issues are being remedied.
IMO, Gesell was a good player and solid contributor on four good teams but I think Horner is better at shooting the ball.
Dude! I was Ames High '01. Did you play for Newton? If so we probably went up against each other. I was the really tall, lousy dude on Ames' roster. I had a friend at UI from Newton by the name of Friedman. You guys were more of a football school but you got loud for basketball too, iirc.
Horner's deep range was crazy in high school. As soon as he got across the half court line, there was a chance it was going up.
I went with Bru, Haluska and Horner. CJ isn't at Haluska's level, though he might get there. Horner was a better outside shooter than Gesell. Brunner was my favorite player from the Alford era.
Good find! I briefly tried to find info on that game but had no luck.
I seem to remember Recker nuking a very good Iowa State team (Tinsley and co.) back in 2000. That was an extremely impressive performance. Does anyone else remember it?
I also seem to remember thinking that Recker looked a bit out of shape in the 2001-2 season.
I have heard something similar about Recker as well. :(