Welcome to Championship Week! Like we all predicted when the Hawkeyes were down 21-9 vs Nebraska last Friday, Iowa is in the Big Ten Championship Game. WHAT A WONDERFUL WORLD.
A lot of people are saying Iowa is bad and doesn’t deserve to be in the title game. A lot of people, including Hawkeye fans, are saying we are probably going to lose this week. If that is you, GET OUT OF HERE, RIGHT NOW. YES YOU, YOU AND YOUR GODDAMN NEGATIVITY, WE DON’T NEED YOU RIGHT NOW.
OK, now that all of the negative Nancies/energy vampires have left the blog, we can actually chat. We have some beautiful football games this weekend, and we are fully expecting to correctly pick all of them after a poor showing last week. We went 7-8-1, but that is mostly because we had to make our picks on Wednesday, a full day earlier than what we usually do. This did not give our team of scientists, meteorologists, psychologists, and astrologists enough time to properly do their research. We will be back and correctly betting games this week, no doubt.
Let's gamble (responsibly).
FRIDAY NIGHT APPETIZERS
Iowa +11.5 @ #2 Purdue (8:00 PM CST, BTN)
Well, uh…Purdue basketball probably the best team in the country? They somehow found another guy that is eight feet tall, which is problematic, but at least David Bell doesn’t play basketball! I love what our Hawkeyes have done on the court this year but uhm…yeah…. this one might not be pretty…
**NOTE: I am notoriously bad at betting on college basketball, so the fact that I think Purdue is going to win and cover means there is a pretty decent chance Iowa covers and wins.**
PICK: Purdue -11.5, OVER 160
Western Kentucky -3.5 vs UTSA (FRIDAY, 6:00 CST, CBSS)
Well, the Meep Meep movement was officially crushed by the Mean Green of North Texas last weekend. The Meepers looked BAD, which is not good because Western Kentucky is scary, and not just because their mascot is something you see in your nightmares.
UTSA won a shootout against WKU earlier this season, that isn’t happening this time.
PICK: WKU -3.5
PAC 12 Championship: #10 Oregon +2.5 vs #17 Utah (Friday, 7:00 PM CST, ABC)
These teams played two weeks ago and Utah absolutely boat raced the Ducks. 38-7 and, as someone who watched most of the game, there really isn’t any reason to think Oregon will be better this time. We made the mistake of betting on the Ducks earlier, let’s not make that mistake again. Enjoy your last title appearance, Utah, I have a feeling Lincoln Riley and USC are going to be occupying that spot from now on.
PICK: Utah -2.5
Conference Championship Games of the Week of the Year of the Century
Big Ten Championship: #2 Michigan -10.5 vs #13 Iowa (7:00 PM CST, FOX)
Are you ready? This is a HUGE game, obviously, and I have some breaking news…I love the Hawkeyes +10.5. It may be because my brain is broken, or because I glutton for punishment, but I really do like our chances this weekend.
Why?
Think about it like this. If this game was being played any other week, all the talk would be about how Michigan was due for a big letdown after finally beating their mortal enemy following years and years of getting their butts kicked. You probably saw the celebrations after the game. Ann Arbor was a giant party. I am fairly certain the fans and players stayed on the field and sang "Mr. Brightside" for 24 hours straight. They put everything they had into that game, won, and now they have to step back onto the field to play an Iowa team that has been labeled “bad” by a lot of people.
I think there are two things that could happen here.
- Michigan does have a gigantic hangover and has nothing in the tank. This turns into an ugly slugfest which is exactly what Iowa wants.
- Last week was an “Oh shit, we are actually amazing, no one is touching us” game. They destroy Iowa on the way to the playoff.
I am thinking option #1. Michigan has not been all that dominant this year. People can put a lot of stock into the Ohio State game, but before that, they hadn’t exactly been destroying teams. Sure, they killed Maryland (so did Iowa -- remember that???), they barely beat Penn State team (just like Iowa), squeaked by Nebraska (just like Iowa…….), and only beat Rutgers by 7 (OK, Iowa didn’t do this). This team can be very, very good, but let’s not act like Iowa is going up against the 2019 LSU Tigers just because they finally beat Ohio State.
My worries for our Hawkeyes are, well just about anything and everything that has to do with the offense. Petras is starting again, but that doesn’t really matter. Check out this thread about Iowa’s QB play recently, it is bonkers.
Absurd: Over the last two years, Iowa is 14-1 when its QBs manage a passer rating over 100.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 1, 2021
100 is terrible! Thats the lowest bar imaginable! Top 120 (which theyve only done in 8 of 20 games), and theyre untouchable. And theyre still 2-3 when the rating is UNDER 100!
I am also worried about that Aidan Hutchinson guy. He seems good and our offensive line is “sus” as the kids say. This man is so good that if he has another dominant game, he will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. THAT scares me.
I am banking on Iowa to do what Iowa does. Make this a gross, disgusting game filled with good punts, hard-hitting defense, interceptions, and a lot of field goals.
If we are being honest, I would be taking Iowa here no matter what the spread was, because I love them, and I would rather lose my money backing them than win money if they lose. I know, I am a true romantic.
Give me the Hawkeyes +10.5 all day and give me the Under. Maybe a nice little 14-13 win?? Yes, please.
PICK: Iowa +10.5, UNDER 43.5
Big 12 Championship: #9 Baylor +5.5 vs #5 Oklahoma State (11:00 AM CST, ABC)
Much like Michigan, Oklahoma State could be due for a letdown after their win in Bedlam last week. I know it sounds crazy to think that a team could have a letdown game when playing for a title, but those rivalry games mean EVERYTHING to these teams, especially when you end a giant losing streak.
OSU won this game by 10 earlier in the year, I think they win again, but it will be a lot closer.
PICK: Baylor +5.5
SEC Championship: #1 Georgia -6.5 vs #3 Alabama (3:00 PM CST, CBS)
I watched the Iron Bowl last weekend and one thing was very clear: this Alabama team does not have “it”. Don’t get me wrong, they are very good, but they don’t have all of the weapons that they normally do. The offense looked pretty awful for 3.8765 quarters, and it will only get worse when Georgia is standing on the other side of the ball. Georgia rolls, the only real question is: Will the playoff committee be able to find a way to put Alabama in after a second loss?
PICK: Georgia -6.5
American Championship Game: #21 Houston +10.5 vs #4 Cincinnati (3:00 PM CST, ABC)
In a few years, these two teams could be playing against each other for the Big 12 Championship… weird.
We have done our best to avoid betting on Cincinnati lately because you just don't really know what you're going to get. They were bashed for most of the season for not winning by enough but have looked better the last two weeks. Houston, on the other hand, has won 11 in a row since their season-opening loss to Texas Tech. They might be the real deal.
Cincinnati gets to play this one at home and it should be a wild crowd with a CFP berth on the line. Our computers don’t really know who to pick here… Cincinnati needs to win big if they want to not get screwed out of the playoff, but they haven't exactly installed a lot of confidence in their ability to cover this season.
Houston is also pretty good. The Cougars have scored over 30 points in all but one game this season and have won 11 in a row… Should we flip a coin for this one? Heads Houston, Tails Cincy??? **Flips coin**
PICK: Cincinnati -10.5, OVER 52.5
ACC Championship: #15 Pittsburgh -3 vs #16 Wake Forest (7:00 PM CST, ABC)
This is on at the same time as the Iowa game so who cares. The total is 71.5, and we are taking the over because say it with me, ALL WAKE FOREST DOES IS SCORE TOUCHDOWNS AND GIVE UP TOUCHDOWNS.
PICK: OVER 71.5
MACtion Championship: Kent State -3.5 vs Northern Illinois (11:00 AM CST, ESPN)
I hate to say this, but I have to be honest: the MACtion this year has not been great. There has been very little chaos/stupid football and I can’t help but think it is because our Lord and savior Frank Solich retired. NIU looked awful without their starting QB Rocky Lombardi, but he should be back for this one. Kent State won this matchup earlier this season, NIU gets its revenge here, even if Kent State is busting out some A+++ jerseys.
Throwback Thursday: MAC Championship Edition.
— Kent State Football (@KentStFootball) December 2, 2021
We are excited to honor the 1972 team by wearing the same helmet logo that was worn by that team when they took home the MAC Championship title.#FlashFAST| #BeTheAlpha pic.twitter.com/VHccPBWv4Y
Also, it's the last MACtion game of the year, so you are required to take the over. Those are the rules.
PICK: NIU +3.5, OVER 73.5
Mountain West Championship: Utah State +6 vs SDSU (2:00 PM CST, FOX)
I know nothing about this game. I watched SDSU play Hawaii at like 2 AM a few weeks ago though, and they did not look great. Based solely on that one game where I was half asleep, I am confident in this pick.
PICK: Utah State +6, UNDER 50.5
FUN Belt Championship: App State -3 vs #24 Louisiana (2:30 PM CST, ESPN)
Billy Napier’s final game as the coach of Louisiana before leaving for Florida and they are a 3-point dog, excuse me? They already beat App State 41-13 this year, is this some sort of trap? Is someone on Louisiana hurt? I sure hope not because I am going to take them without looking into this more.
PICK: ULL +3
That's it for Championship Week! I'll see you all in Indianapolis. If you see a man at the Winner’s Pub Sportsbook screaming and pulling his hair out while watching MACtion at 11:00 AM, it's most likely me. Love you all, HAWKS BY A MILLION.
2021 RECORD
Overall: 103-87-2
ATS: 80-59-2
OU: 23-28-1
