Here's a wild-but-totally-true statement: Iowa men's basketball controls its own destiny to earn a Top-4 seed -- and a double-bye -- in the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis next weekend. Writing that sentence did not seem like a realistic possibility before the season began. Writing that sentence a month ago did not seem like a realistic possibility, back when Iowa was sitting at 14-7 overall and a grisly 4-6 in Big Ten play. But then Iowa had a Frantastic February, going 7-1 and rocketing up the league standings.
Also important? Several league teams expected to challenge for a conference championship -- or at least a Top-4 finish -- have struggled recently. Ohio State entered February at 13-5 overall and 6-3 in Big Ten play; they went 5-4 in February and they've lost three of five, including back-to-back defeats to Maryland and, uh, Nebrasketball (!). Michigan wasn't in world-beating form prior to February -- despite high preseason expectations they were just 10-8 overall and 4-4 in Big Ten games. February was more of the same for them: 6-4 overall and an almost-perfect trend of alternating wins and losses. (That's potentially good news for Iowa tonight, given that the Wolverines beat Michigan State in their last game, on Tuesday.)
Speaking of Sparty, I'm not sure anyone had a worse February than Michigan State. They were 16-4 overall and 7-2 in Big Ten play as the month began. They ended February 19-9 and 10-7 in league action, thanks to a stretch where they lost five of six games. They ended that with a win over Purdue -- and then promptly got beat by almost 20 by Michigan in the following game. Wait, someone else may have had a worse February than the Spartans -- Indiana was 16-5 overall and 7-4 in Big Ten games as January ended. They ended January at 18-10 overall and 9-9 in league games, courtesy a five-game losing streak to start the month.
All of that chaos has left Iowa sitting in the 4-seed spot as we head toward the final weekend of the season. Here's how things break down among the teams vying for that final double-bye:
| TEAM | OVR | B1G | GAMES REMAINING | H2H RESULTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 21-8 | 11-7 | @ Michigan, @ Illinois | 2-2 (W: OSU, MSU; L: RUT, MICH) |
| Ohio State | 18-9 | 11-7 | Michigan State, Michigan | 1-2 (W: MICH; L: RUT, IOWA) |
| Rutgers | 17-12 | 11-8 | Penn State | 4-1 (W: MICH, MSU, OSU, IOWA; L: MICH) |
| Michigan | 16-12 | 10-8 | Iowa, @ Ohio State | 3-3 (W: IOWA, RUT, MSU; L: RUT, MSU, OSU) |
| Michigan State | 19-10 | 10-8 | @ Ohio State, Maryland | 1-3 (W: MICH; L: RUT, IOWA, MICH) |
The good news? Well, remember what I said in the very first line of this post: Iowa controls its own destiny. If they win out, they'll be (at least) the 4-seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Granted, doing so also requires that they win back-to-back road games against Michigan and Illinois -- not easy.
The bad news? Iowa may have to win out in order to earn a double-bye.
In terms of ties, Iowa wins tiebreakers with Ohio State and Michigan State by virtue of their head-to-head wins over the Buckeyes and Spartans this year. They would lose tiebreakers with Rutgers and Michigan. They would lose to Rutgers because of their head-to-head loss to the Scarlet Knights (sigh). They would lose to Michigan either on head-to-head merits (if Michigan wins both games in the regular season and both teams teams finish 12-8) or by the next tiebreaker (record against highest-finishing Big Ten opponents; Michigan has a win over Purdue, while Iowa went 0-2 against the Boilermakers).
The biggest threat to Iowa's bid for a double-bye? It's not Ohio State, although they are tied with the Buckeyes in the standings right now. It's neither Michigan nor Michigan State, lurking right behind. The biggest threat is actually... Rutgers. Seriously.
Rutgers is improbably well-positioned to earn a Top-4 finish. Their win over Indiana last night -- in Bloomington! -- was extremely bad news for Iowa and all of the chasing pack for the 4-seed. At 11-8 in league play, the Scarlet Knights are right on the heels of Iowa and Ohio State. They also have the easiest remaining game of the teams vying for that spot, home against Penn State. And, on top of that, they're also in absurdly good shape in terms of tiebreakers. They would win two-team tiebreakers against Iowa, Michigan State, and Ohio State thanks to their head-to-head wins against all teams, and they would likely win a two-team tiebreaker against Michigan as well, thanks to their wins over Wisconsin and Purdue. They're also in good shape in a multi-team tiebreaker, given all their wins over the teams they'd likely be tied with. Rutgers, a team with Big Ten losses to Penn State, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern (and non-league losses to UMass and Lafayette), and a team that is squarely on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament (the metrics hate them and their resume is a confounding mix of great wins and baffling losses) is in tremendous shape to earn the 4-seed. What a world.
Again, if Iowa wins out and beats both Michigan and Illinois, this is a moot point. It won't matter what any other Big Ten team does. The Hawkeyes will be 13-7 in Big Ten play; the only team among the chasing pack that can match that would be Ohio State and Iowa has the tiebreaker over them.
If Iowa loses both of its remaining games, this is also a moot point -- they have no shot at earning a double-bye at 11-9 in league play. If Iowa splits its remaining games, they have a shot to earn a double-bye. For that to work:
- Rutgers has to lose to Penn State (hey, it happened once this year!), since Iowa won't win any tiebreakers with Rutgers
- beating Michigan is probably more important than beating Illinois, since that win would help Iowa more in tiebreaker scenarios
Let's look at your rooting interests in the games involving these teams:
- Thursday, March 3: Iowa at Michigan -- duh
- Thursday, March 3: Michigan State at Ohio State -- MSU. An MSU loss eliminates them from Top-4 contention, but a win increases the potential of a multi-team tie at 12-8 with Iowa and Ohio State, which would go in Iowa's favor. An OSU win means Iowa either needs to sweep its remaining games or root for Michigan to beat Ohio State on Sunday.
- Sunday, March 6: Iowa at Illinois -- also duh
- Sunday, March 6: Penn State at Rutgers -- GO PENN STATE
- Sunday, March 6: Michigan at Ohio State -- If Iowa loses to Michigan, then go Buckeyes. If Iowa beats Michigan, then Michigan beating OSU is probably advantageous, because that might give Iowa a little wiggle room against Illinois.
- Sunday, March 6: Maryland at Michigan State -- Go Turtles? This game is mostly irrelevant to Iowa's hopes for a Top-4 finish.
We'll know a lot more after the Iowa-Michigan and Michigan State-Ohio State games tonight. Iowa and Ohio State wins would eliminate Michigan and Michigan State from Top-4 contention. Michigan and MSU wins could lead to a wild slate of games on Sunday. And don't forget to root for Penn State to upset Rutgers, too. If that doesn't happen, Iowa (or Ohio State) has to win out to prevent the Scarlet Knights from being the 4-seed. Time to see how it all plays out.
