Now that I’ve discussed Iowa’s returning players and the new players who should add to Iowa’s depth, let’s take a look at the schedule Iowa faces this year and the expectations for this season.
Non-Conference Schedule
11/9 vs. New Hampshire
11/11 vs. Samford
11/14 at Northern Iowa
11/17 vs. Southern University
11/21 vs. Drake
11/25 vs. Seton Hall (at Cancun Challenge)
11/26 vs. USC (at Cancun Challenge)
12/2 at Duke
12/8 at #12 Iowa State
12/18 vs. UCF
12/21 vs. IUPUI
This is a fairly typical Iowa non-conference schedule. The Hawks play each of their three in-state rivals, travel south for a holiday tournament, participate in the Big-Ten/ACC challenge, and otherwise play several mid-majors who should do well enough in their respective conferences not to kill Iowa’s strength of schedule.
On paper, Iowa should be favored in each of these games, except perhaps at Iowa State. But Iowa has also beaten Iowa State in five consecutive games, so Iowa might even be the favorite in that one, despite Iowa State’s high ranking.
My only real complaint with the non-conference schedule is the lack of marquee opponents. A non-conference match-up against a Top 10 team or two would’ve given Iowa a great chance to see where they stand among the best teams in the country. It would’ve also offered the opportunity for a marquee win early in the season. Outside of Iowa State, Iowa will likely need to wait for Big Ten play to add major victories to its resume.
Big Ten Predictions
The other 13 Big Ten teams are listed below in descending order based on how I think they will finish. If they are ranked in the AP Poll, their ranking is to the left of the school’s name. Their 2020-21 Big Ten record is to the right of the school’s name.
#4 Maryland 17-1
Maryland was one of the best teams in the country last season, and returns every key contributor from that team. At its best, Maryland is the best offensive team in women’s college basketball, and a threat to take out any team in the country. There are questions about Maryland’s defense, though, and they occasionally come out flat and lose a game they have no business losing like last year’s Sweet 16 game against Texas.
This year, Maryland should be a heavy favorite to win the Big Ten. Frankly, anything short of a Final Four appearance would be a disappointment.
Unfortunately for Iowa, Maryland is arguably Iowa’s worst matchup in the conference. The Terps play just as fast as Iowa, shoot nearly as well from three, and are significantly more athletic. Neither of Iowa’s two games with Maryland last year were particularly close, and I don’t expect that gap to have closed much this year.
#8 Indiana 16-2
Last year’s Indiana team made a run to the Elite 8, and came agonizingly close to upsetting eventual runner-up Arizona to make the Final Four. The Hoosiers return one of the best starting lineups in basketball, led by Grace Berger, Mackenzie Holmes, and 7th year point guard Ali Patberg. But there are some questions about Indiana’s depth and their three-point shooting.
Last year, Iowa played in two very close games with Indiana, before fading late. The two teams are fairly evenly matched, and Indiana doesn’t pose the style issues for Iowa that Maryland does.
#11 Michigan 9-4
The general consensus is that the Big Ten will have four very good teams this season, and Michigan is the last of the four. Last year, Michigan finished fourth in the Big Ten in the regular season, then went on a surprise run to the Sweet 16, before losing to 2-seed Baylor by three in overtime.
The Wolverines are led by Naz Hillmon, who was Big Ten Player of the Year last year and averaged 23.9 ppg and 11.4 rebounds per game last season. She is the best Big Ten post player since Megan Gustafson. And while Hillmon is nearly impossible to stop, and has several very good teammates to compliment her, the Wolverines do have a significant weakness: three-point shooting. Last year, they shot just 30% from 3-point range (Iowa shot 40%), and had only two players who averaged even one made three-pointer per game.
Iowa actually matched up well with Michigan last year, beating them 89-67 in a game that was over partway through the third quarter.
#17 Ohio State 9-7
Ohio State looked like one of the best teams in the conference last year, before suffering a series of surprising defeats in the season’s final month. Even with those defeats, I would have projected Ohio State as one of the best teams in the conference again this year if they returned every player that they were expected to return.
Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, that didn’t happen. Former All-Big Ten forward Dorka Juhasz transferred to UConn, and two-year starting forward Aaliyah Patty transferred to Texas A&M. The Buckeyes also didn’t add any notable transfers to replace them.
Ohio State’s backcourt should still be very good, but there are major questions now about their front court. Frankly, I think Ohio State is overrated in the AP Poll, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished a spot or two below this in the final conference standings.
RV Michigan State 8-7
Michigan State has finished in the middle of the conference for the last five years now, but finished last year strong, upsetting Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament and sticking fairly close to Iowa for most of the semifinal. The Spartans return most of the contributors from last year’s team, and should finish in the upper portion of the middle of the conference. I wouldn’t be shocked if they finish higher than Ohio State this year.
Northwestern 11-7
Northwestern has had a very good last couple seasons, tying for the regular season conference championship two years ago, and almost beating 2-seed Louisville in the second round of last year’s NCAA Tournament. In both seasons, Northwestern was one of the best defensive teams in the conference, especially on the perimeter.
This year’s Northwestern team has more questions. First among those is post defense. Northwestern did a good job at limiting Caitlin Clark in both of its games against Iowa last season, but Monika Czinano dominated instead. The Big Ten has plenty of great posts who can do just what Czinano did if Northwestern’s post defense hasn’t improved.
The second question is scoring. Northwestern doesn’t need to score a ton with their defense, but they lost one of their leading scorers from last season in Lindsey Pulliam. Will their returning players be able to score as well without Pulliam on the court?
Northwestern should make the NCAA Tournament again even if those questions don’t have great answers, but I don’t think they will be as good as they have been the last two seasons.
Nebraska 9-10
The Huskers have been a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big Ten the last three seasons, and that looks like where they will end up this season. They lost a big post presence in 6’5" Kate Cain, but otherwise return most of the players from last year’s team. The big question this year is whether they will return to the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Amy Williams has just one tournament appearance in her first five seasons at Nebraska.
Rutgers 10-3
Rutgers is easily the biggest enigma in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights finished third in the conference last year, but that result was deceptive. They were hit hard by Covid and missed a large chunk of the season. As a result, they played just 13 of the 20 games on their conference schedule, and many of those games were against teams that finished in the bottom half of the conference. In the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments, Rutgers looked far from one of the top teams in the conference.
Most of the core of last year’s team is gone now, due to transfer or graduation. Rutgers has brought in several transfers to replace them, but it remains to be seen what chemistry those players will have and how they will perform in the Big Ten.
Frankly I won’t be surprised if Rutgers finishes several spots above or below this come season’s end.
Minnesota 7-11
Minnesota looked like it hit a home run when it hired Lindsay Whalen as head coach in 2018. But in her first three seasons as head coach, she has gone 9-9, 5-13, and 7-11 in conference play. This year’s Minnesota team returns a lot from last year, so the team should be better. But most of the Big Ten returns a lot from last year, so even a better team might not achieve noticeably better results.
I don’t think Whalen is particularly close to the hot seat yet, but this situation is starting to remind me a lot of Scott Frost and Nebraska football. It’s fair to question when the wins are going to come.
Penn State 6-13
Penn State was arguably the worst team in the conference in 2019-2020, but looked noticeably better last season. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lions improve again this season and finish one or two spots higher than this.
Purdue 4-14
It’s been a brutal off-season for the Boilermakers. Last year’s conference record was awful, and several key players from that team transferred. Then longtime coach Sharon Versyp retired in September amid reports that she was being investigated for creating a toxic and hostile environment.
Taking over for Versyp is Katie Geralds, whose only prior head coaching experience was at the NAIA level. In fairness, she had plenty of success at that level, winning two National Championships with Marian University, but the NAIA is also a far cry from the Big Ten.
With a head coach new to Division I basketball and a roster that is arguably worse than last year’s on paper, I would be shocked if Purdue finished higher than 12th in conference this year.
Illinois 2-16
Nancy Fahey is 6-64 in Big Ten games in her first four seasons at Illinois, and I didn’t see anything last year that makes me think Illinois is going to take a leap this season. I will be very surprised if Illinois doesn’t finish 12th or lower this year.
Wisconsin 2-18
Wisconsin was arguably the worst team in the conference last year, lost its best player to the transfer portal, and also fired its head coach. New head coach Marisa Moseley had some success at Boston University before coming to Wisconsin, but she is facing a huge rebuild. Wisconsin has made just one NCAA Tournament appearance since 2002.
Conference Schedule
Home and Away: Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern
Home Only: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State
Away Only: Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin
This conference schedule gives Iowa a great chance to fight for a Top 2 or 3 conference finish. They play three of the top six projected teams in the conference only once, and each of those games is at home. Four total games against Indiana and Michigan will be tough, but also gives Iowa a chance to control their own destiny against the teams most likely to finish near them in the conference standings.
Home and away games against Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern won’t be easy, but Iowa has routinely beaten the Huskers and Gophers in recent years, and Northwestern might well take a step back this year. Finally, if you are going to play the worst teams in the conference only once, it’s better to play them on the road and save your home games for better opponents.
Iowa’s 2021-2022 Expectations
The expectations for last year’s Iowa team were pretty low going into the season. Some experts projected that Iowa would miss the NCAA Tournament completely. Others thought the 2020-21 team would make the NCAA Tournament as a middle seed and lose in the first weekend. Virtually no one predicted a run to the Big Ten Tournament championship game and a Sweet 16 appearance where Iowa played 1-seed UConn close into the fourth quarter.
This year’s expectations should be set much higher. My two big expectations for the season are: 1) another Sweet 16 appearance, and 2) a Top 4 finish in the Big Ten regular season.
Last year’s Sweet 16 run was somewhat of a surprise, but this year it shouldn’t be. Iowa should be good enough to earn a Top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament this year. If they do, they will be able to play the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Getting upset in the NCAA Tournament with home court advantage would be fairly hard to swallow.
I don’t think it’s time to start expecting an Elite 8 or Final Four appearance yet, however. This Iowa team is still relatively young, and the very top of women’s college basketball is deeper than it has been in years thanks to players getting an extra year of eligibility and thanks to the transfer portal. This year’s team could certainly go on a run to the Elite 8 or Final Four, but I think we’re still a year away from that being a plausible expectation.
I also think Iowa needs to finish in the Top 4 in Big Ten play this year. Last year’s team got noticeably better as the season went on, and by year’s end, it was likely one of the four best teams in the conference. It’s time to prove that this year, and to avenge some of the agonizingly close loses that Iowa suffered early in conference play.
