Dual meet season is officially over with the conclusion of National Duals last weekend, which means it's time to start thinking about the big tournaments to cap off the 2016-17 college wrestling season. Up first: the Big Ten Wrestling Tournament, which takes place next weekend (March 4-5) in Bloomington, Indiana. The pre-seeds at each weight for that event should be released next week (likely on Monday), but who wants to wait until then? I've gone ahead and done some projections for each weight with the help of our old friend bscaff. Many thanks to him for helping with the logistical end of this endeavor.
I've only gone ahead and done the projections for the Top 8 at each weight, although the Big Ten may seed more at each weight (depending on how many automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament that the Big Ten gets at each weight). Honestly, the wrestlers who may be seeded 9-14 aren't likely to make much noise at the Big Ten Tournament.
125
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | RECORD | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Gilman | Iowa | 24-0 | 11-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Nick Suriano | Penn State | 16-2 | 9-1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Tim Lambert | Nebraska | 25-5 | 8-4 | 7-2 |
| 4 | Ethan Lizak | Minnesota | 21-5 | 5-5 | 3-4 |
| 5 | Elijah Oliver | Indiana | 13-6 | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| 6 | Conor Youtsey | Michigan | 3-4 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| 7 | Johnny Jimenez | Wisconsin | 14-8 | 4-5 | 3-3 |
| 8 | Brandon Paetzell | Rutgers | 14-8 | 4-5 | 4-4 |
This weight is straightforward at the top -- Gilman beat everyone and Suriano only lost to Gilman (in the Big Ten, at least). Lambert only lost to Suriano and Gilman in Big Ten duals, but he also lost to Gilman and Lizak outside of the Big Ten. Lizak has a worse record than Oliver, but he also has a win over Lambert (better than any win on Oliver's resume) and his "bad" loss was to Ohio State's Jose Rodriguez (ranked in the Top 20 at one point), while Oliver's "bad" loss was to Illinois' Travis Piotrowski, which is a worse loss. Youtsey is a difficult one to seed given his small number of matches (he was actually retired earlier this season but returned to action when Michigan suffered an injury crisis at 125), but that seems to weigh against him a bit, as does his loss to Michigan State's Mitch Rogaliner.
This weight should boil down to Gilman-Suriano II in the finals (Gilman narrowly won their first encounter, 3-2), although that could depend on Suriano's health -- he injured an ankle during the Penn State-Oklahoma State dual on Sunday and had to injury default out of the match. It remains to be seen what condition his ankle will be in 10 days from now. If Lizak gets a 4/5 seed (as seems likely), Gilman could see him in the semifinals, which could be interesting -- Lizak had him on the ropes for two periods, before getting blown out (and pinned) in the third.
133
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | RECORD | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan Tomasello | Ohio State | 16-0 | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Eric Montoya | Nebraska | 23-2 | 8-2 | 7-2 |
| 3 | Cory Clark | Iowa | 12-2 | 6-1 | 5-1 |
| 4 | Zane Richards | Illinois | 21-2 | 7-2 | 7-1 |
| 5 | Stevan Micic | Michigan | 20-4 | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| 6 | Billy Rappo | Maryland | 13-11 | 7-3 | 5-2 |
| 7 | Luke Welch | Purdue | 18-11 | 5-7 | 5-4 |
| 8 | Mitch McKee | Minnesota | 17-15 | 4-6 | 4-5 |
Tomasello is a no-brainer as the 1 seed, thanks to his undefeated record. Montoya is a solid bet as the 2 seed, given that he has wins over Clark (at the dual) and Richards (at Midlands), although he also has a head-scratching loss to Micic. The big question mark is Clark or Richards at the 3 seed; Clark has the better conference record, but the weaker overall record due to missing several matches due to injury. Richards' only losses were to Montoya and Tomasello this year; he and Clark never faced off. I gave Clark the nod by virtue of only having one loss against Big Ten competition this year, but I would not be surprised if Richards earned the 3 seed instead.
The 3/4 seed distinction is significant in that a 4 seed would mean seeing Tomasello in the semifinals rather than the finals, although realistically for Clark to repeat as Big Ten champion he's going to have to beat Richards/Montoya and Tomasello to do -- the only question is what order he has to do it in. A 4 seed could also mean a match with Micic in the quarters; Clark edged him via narrow 2-0 decision earlier this year.
141
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | RECORD | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Ashnault | Rutgers | 26-3 | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Colton McCrystal | Nebraska | 26-8 | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 3 | Jimmy Gulibon | Penn State | 13-7 | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 4 | Tommy Thorn | Minnesota | 15-4 | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| 5 | Luke Pletcher | Ohio State | 23-6 | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| 6 | Topher Carton | Iowa | 12-6 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| 7 | Javier Gasca | Michigan State | 22-7 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| 8 | Sal Profaci | Michigan | 13-12 | 4-6 | 4-5 |
Another weight with an undefeated wrestler at the top, which makes things easy there. McCrystal has losses to Carton and Pletcher, but he also beat Gulibon and Thorn. Gulibon's only B1G losses were against Ashnault and McCrystal. Thorn's only losses were to Gulibon and McCrystal. Pletcher lost to Ashnault, Gulibon, and Thorn. Carton beat McCrystal, but lost to Gulibon, Thorn, and Pletcher; he was close in all three matches, though, and could easily be the 2 or 3 seed here if he had just won a few of those matches.
If these seeds hold, Carton could get a quarterfinal rematch with Gulibon; he was beating him after two periods in their first encounter, before Gulibon made a furious comeback and defeated him in the third. A rematch wouldn't be so bad, although Gulibon is also wrestling very well lately and a match-up with Thorn of Pletcher might be preferable.
149
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | RECORD | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zain Retherford | Penn State | 19-0 | 10-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Brandon Sorensen | Iowa | 22-3 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Micah Jordan | Ohio State | 25-2 | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| 4 | Alfred Bannister | Maryland | 19-3 | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | Ken Theobold | Rutgers | 18-7 | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| 6 | Eric Barone | Illinois | 9-6 | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| 7 | Andrew Crone | Wisconsin | 25-9 | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| 8 | Chris Perez | Indiana | 9-8 | 5-5 | 5-4 |
Zain's dominance makes the top easy here. Sorensen's loss to Edinboro's Pat Lugo over the weekend shouldn't have any impact on his Big Ten seeding and he beat every Big Ten opponent he faced except Retherford. Jordan lost to Retherford and Sorensen. Bannister missed several matches, but he did beat Theobold and Barone. Theobold lost to Retherford, Jordan, and Bannister. Barone also lost to Retherford, Jordan, and Bannister.
Per these seeds, Sorensen could have a quarterfinal showdown with Crone, who has wrestled him fairly closely (losses of 9-5 and 6-3 over the last two seasons), before a semifinal match with Jordan (who Sorensen beat just 2-0 earlier this year), and a possible finals match-up with Retherford. That would be a challenging path for Sorensen.
157
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | RECORD | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jason Nolf | Penn State | 19-0 | 9-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Michael Kemerer | Iowa | 25-1 | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Tyler Berger | Nebraska | 26-3 | 7-3 | 6-2 |
| 4 | Kyle Langenderfer | Illinois | 21-5 | 7-3 | 7-2 |
| 5 | Jake Short | Minnesota | 20-10 | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| 6 | Brian Murphy | Michigan | 13-6 | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| 7 | TJ Ruschell | Wisconsin | 14-6 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| 8 | John Van Brill | Rutgers | 19-9 | 4-4 | 4-3 |
Nolf beat everyone he faced, so he's the easy 1 seed. Kemerer beat everyone except Nolf, including two wins over Berger. Berger's only losses were to Nolf and Kemerer. Langenderfer avoided Kemerer and Berger, and lost to Nolf and Van Brill. Short beat Murphy, but lost to Kemerer, Berger, (x2), Ruschell, and Nolf. Murphy lost to Langenderfer, Kemerer, Berger, and Short. Ruschell and Van Brill have a few decent wins between them, but also some bad losses (and both largely missed the top guys at this weight).
Obviously the most important factor for Iowa at this weight is Kemerer's health -- hopefully the knee injury he appeared to suffer against Edinboro on Saturday night was a minor scare and nothing significant. He could be looking at Ruschell in the quarterfinals and Round III with Berger in the semifinals before a possible finals showdown with Nolf.
165
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | OVERALL | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Martinez | Illinois | 23-0 | 10-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Logan Massa | Michigan | 25-1 | 11-1 | 7-1 |
| 3 | Isaac Jordan | Wisconsin | 21-2 | 8-2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | Vincenzo Joseph | Penn State | 14-3 | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| 5 | Joey Gunther | Iowa | 17-6 | 7-4 | 5-3 |
| 6 | Nick Wanzek | Minnesota | 23-11 | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| 7 | Drew Hughes | Michigan State | 21-6 | 5-6 | 3-5 |
| 8 | Johnny Sebastian | Northwestern | 16-8 | 4-4 | 4-3 |
IMar beat everyone he saw, so the 1 seed isn't in doubt. Massa beat everyone he faced except IMar. Jordan lost a pair of matches to Massa, but beat Joseph, Gunther, and Wanzek. Joseph beat everyone except IMar and Jordan. Gunther quietly put together a nice Big Ten record, only losing to Massa, Jordan, and Joseph and beating Wanzek and Hughes. Hughes has a lot of losses, but also has an 11-0 major decision win over Sebastian, which made it hard for me to seed Sebastian ahead of him.
Given this seeding, Gunther would get a quarterfinal match against Joseph (who beat him 7-4 at the dual) and, if he pulled the upset in that one, a semifinal match against Martinez. Let's just say I think Gunther will have to do most of his damage for Iowa in the consolation bracket.
174
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | OVERALL | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Jordan | Ohio State | 11-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| 2 | Mark Hall | Penn State | 24-2 | 7-1 | 5-1 |
| 3 | Zac Brunson | Illinois | 25-6 | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | Myles Amine | Michigan | 22-4 | 8-2 | 7-2 |
| 5 | Alex Meyer | Iowa | 20-5 | 8-3 | 7-2 |
| 6 | Jordan Pagano | Rutgers | 24-7 | 5-3 | 3-1 |
| 7 | Jacob Morrisey | Purdue | 14-8 | 7-3 | 7-1 |
| 8 | Devin Skatzka | Indiana | 23-9 | 7-6 | 4-5 |
Jordan lost last weekend at National Duals, but that doesn't impact his Big Ten record and I think his unblemished mark there will be enough to get him the #1 seed. Hall lost only to Meyer and beat Brunson. Brunson's only Big Ten defeat came against Hall. Amine lost to Brunson and Minnesota's Wanzek, but beat Meyer and Pagano. Meyer lost to Jordan, Brunson, and Amine, but did beat Hall. Pagano has a lesser Big Ten record than Morrisey, but he did beat Morrisey and Morrisey didn't wrestle the top guys in the Big Ten and lost to Brunson, Meyer, and Pagano.
If this seeding holds, Meyer would get a rematch with Amine in the quarters (he lost 6-5 at the dual) and a rematch with Bo Jordan in the semis (he lost 3-2 at the dual). If he could upset Jordan, he'd get either Hall (who he surprisingly upset at the dual this year, 7-5) or Brunson (who has long been his nemesis). All things considered, this would be a pretty reasonable draw for Meyer as he was close to beating both Amine and Jordan and could be facing a semi-hobbled Jordan (he's been dealing with a persistent foot issue all season).
184
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | OVERALL | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | Penn State | 18-0 | 10-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Nate Jackson | Indiana | 28-2 | 10-2 | 9-0 |
| 3 | Sammy Brooks | Iowa | 21-2 | 9-2 | 7-1 |
| 4 | Myles Martin | Ohio State | 23-7 | 8-2 | 7-2 |
| 5 | T.J. Dudley | Nebraska | 22-2 | 7-2 | 4-2 |
| 6 | Emery Parker | Illinois | 23-6 | 6-4 | 6-3 |
| 7 | Nicholas Gravina | Rutgers | 18-7 | 5-5 | 5-4 |
| 8 | Mitch Sliga | Northwestern | 16-8 | 4-7 | 4-5 |
Nickal hasn't been touched so he's an obvious #1 seed. Jackson is a surprising face at the 2 seed, but his record speaks for itself -- he's only lost to Brooks (who he also beat) and Dudley and those losses both occurred at Midlands. Brooks split with Jackson at Midlands and had his only dual meet loss against Nickal. Martin lost to Brooks and Nickal, but beat Dudley. Speaking of... could Dudley really go from Big Ten/NCAA runner-up last year to the 5 seed this year? It seems like it. He lost to Nickal and Martin, didn't face Brooks, but beat Jackson.
Brooks could get Parker in the quarters (they've never wrestled before) and Jackson in the semis (who he split with at Midlands). This would be a pretty ideal draw for Sammy, frankly, as it would keep arguably the three most dangerous opponents for him (Nickal, Dudley, and Martin) on the opposite half of the bracket. All roads lead to Nickal in the final, but it would certainly be preferable to not have to go through Dudley or Martin to get there, I think.
197
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | OVERALL | CONF REc | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Pfarr | Minnesota | 24-1 | 11-0 | 9-0 |
| 2 | Kollin Moore | Ohio State | 24-3 | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Aaron Studebaker | Nebraska | 24-6 | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 4 | Matt McCutcheon | Penn State | 15-3 | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| 5 | Ricky Robertson | Wisconsin | 23-12 | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| 6 | Cash Wilcke | Iowa | 14-8 | 5-4 | 5-3 |
| 7 | Jackson Striggow | Michigan | 11-11 | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| 8 | Jacob Berkowitz | Northwestern | 22-7 | 8-5 | 5-3 |
Pfarr has owned the rest of the Big Ten this year, so he's an easy 1 seed. Moore's only losses this year are to the #1 (J'Den Cox) and #2 (Pfarr x2) ranked guys at this weight. Studebaker's only Big Ten losses are against Pfarr and Moore. McCutcheon's only losses are to Pfarr, Moore, and Studebaker. Did you know Wilcke was 5-3 against B1G opposition this year? Probably not, given how he seemed to be struggling, but he generally struggled against the better guys (lost to Moore, Studebaker, McCutcheon, and Robertson) and beat everyone else. Robertson has a lesser record, but did beat Wilcke 6-3 at Midlands, which I think gets him the nod over Wilcke here.
That's unfortunate because it sets up a possible quarterfinal for Wilcke against Studebaker, who beat him 12-2 earlier this year in a match that didn't even feel that close. But match-ups with Pfarr, Moore, or Studebaker would be mighty challenging for Wilcke and it seems unlikely that he could get a 4 or 5 seed. Like Gunther, he may need to do most of his damage in the consolation bracket.
285
| RANK | WRESTLER | SCHOOL | OVERALL | CONF REC | CONF DUALS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Snyder | Ohio State | 9-0 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| 2 | Connor Medbery | Wisconsin | 22-0 | 11-0 | 9-0 |
| 3 | Nick Nevills | Penn State | 16-2 | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| 4 | Michael Kroells | Minnesota | 23-7 | 8-3 | 7-2 |
| 5 | Brooks Black | Illinois | 11-5 | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| 6 | Collin Jensen | Nebraska | 24-10 | 5-6 | 4-4 |
| 7 | Youssef Hemida | Maryland | 16-9 | 6-4 | 6-2 |
| 8 | Conan Jennings | Northwestern | 15-11 | 5-4 | 5-4 |
There's an argument to be made for Medbery as the 1 seed, given Snyder's part-time schedule this year and the fact that Medbery has twice as many Big Ten and overall wins. But I think Snyder gets the edge here as the defending Big Ten champion (not to mention the World and Olympic champion, even if those accomplishments shouldn't actually factor in here). Not that it really matters a whole lot who is the 1 seed and who is the 2 seed here as they appear to be on a collision course for the finals. Nevills only lost to Medbery and Snyder. Kroells lost to Medbery (x2) and Nevills. Black only lost to Nevills, but missed several duals. Jensen has a lot of losses, but all of them came against quality opponents. Hemida has a better record, btu he wrestled an exceptionally weak schedule.
285 is the only weight where Iowa shouldn't have a wrestler seeded in the Top 8 and that's down to Sam Stoll's unfortunate season-ending injury. A healthy Stoll would likely have pushed for a 3 or 4 seed here. I'll be happy if Holloway can steal a win at the Big Ten Tournament, frankly.
So that's what I think the Big Ten Tournament seeds will look like when they're announced next week. As far as how that looks in terms of the team title race, here's how that would look in terms of just placement points if those projected seeds held up.
| TEAM | 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184 | 197 | 285 | TEAM PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 2 | N/A | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 135 |
| Iowa | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | N/A | 108 |
| Ohio State | N/A | 1 | 5 | 3 | N/A | N/A | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 104 |
| Nebraska | 3 | 2 | 2 | N/A | 3 | N/A | N/A | 5 | 3 | 6 | 84.5 |
Again, that's just placement points, so it doesn't include bonus points (where PSU is likely to hoover up a bunch more points). Penn State looks like pretty heavy favorites to win; the most intriguing battle could be between Iowa and Ohio State for second place.
Thoughts? Hit up the comments.
H/T to Jennifer Steffen and IAWrestle for the photo assistance. Check out IAWrestle and follow them on Twitter at @jenphotag and @IAwrestle.
