Iowa's quest for a third-straight Big Ten championship gets underway tomorrow in Lincoln, NE, at Pinnacle Bank Arena. The first session (first round + quarterfinals) begins at 10 AM, with coverage on BTN and BTN+ (no TV). The second sessions (semifinals + consolation rounds) begins at 5:30 PM (consos) and 7:30 PM (semifinals), with TV coverage on BTN (semifinals-only), as well as additional coverage on BTN+. And now we have brackets to see how it shakes out for Iowa at each weight.
SPOILER: Getting that three-peat isn't going to be easy for Iowa -- at all.
Dual meet results definitely matter when it comes to setting seeds for postseason tournaments, as Iowa wrestlers found out with the seeds at this year's Big Ten Tournament. Key defeats in regular season dual meets dropped Alex Marinelli (165) and Michael Kemerer (174) a seed (or two), setting up more challenging routes to potential Big Ten titles for them. But Iowa wrestlers who stormed through the Big Ten schedule -- like Kaleb Young (157) and Tony Cassioppi (285) benefited from those league wins when it came to seeding. So, yes, those wins and losses in January and February do matter -- quite a bit, as it turns out.
125
1) Nick Suriano, Michigan
2) Drew Hildebrandt, Penn State
3) Eric Barnett, Wisconsin
4) Malik Heinselman, Ohio State
5) Devin Schroeder, Purdue
6) Drake Ayala, Iowa
7) Michael DeAugustino, Northwestern
8) Patrick McKee, Minnesota
9) Dylan Shawver, Rutgers
10) Justin Cardani, Illinois
11) Tristan Lujan, Michigan State
12) Jacob Moran, Indiana
13) Jerimiah Reno, Nebraska
14) Zach Spence, Maryland
ANALYSIS: Ayala earned the 6-seed, which isn't bad, since it keeps him on the opposite side of the bracket from Nick Suriano (the heavy favorite at this weight) as well as Patrick McKee (who Ayala is 0-3 against this year). Ayala's first round match is against Lujan, who went 10-10 this year. If Ayala wins that match, he should get Barnett, who he didn't face in the regular season. Win that match and he could see Penn State's Hildebrandt; that match could be big for the team race if it happens.
WINNER: Suriano over Barnett
IOWA PREDICTION: Ayala -- 4th
133
1) Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State
2) Austin DeSanto, Iowa
3) Lucas Byrd, Illinois
4) RayVon Foley, Michigan State
5) Dylan Ragusin, Michigan
6) Brock Hudkins, Indiana
7) Chris Cannon, Northwestern
8) Joe Oliveri, Rutgers
9) Matt Ramos, Purdue
10) Dominick Serrano, Nebraska
11) Kyle Burwick, Wisconsin
12) Jake Gliva, Minnesota
13) King Sandoval, Maryland
14) Dylan Koontz, Ohio State
ANALYSIS: No shock that DeSanto gets the 2nd seed. He'll get either Cannon or Serrano in the second round. He didn't wrestle either guy in the regular season. Should he win that, he'll likely get Byrd, which could be an interesting match. DeSanto edged Byrd in a very close match (5-4) at last year's Big Ten Tournament, their only prior encounter. And, of course, if DeSanto gets past Byrd, he'll almost certainly get yet another clash with RBY.
WINNER: Bravo-Young over DeSanto
IOWA PREDICTION: DeSanto - 2nd
141
1) Nick Lee, Penn State
2) Jaydin Eierman, Iowa
3) Sebastian Rivera, Rutgers
4) Chad Red, Nebraska
5) Jakob Bergeland, Minnesota
6) Stevan Micic, Michigan
7) Dylan D'Emilio, Ohio State
8) Joseph Zargo, Wisconsin
9) Dylan Duncan, Illinois
10) Frankie Tal Shahar, Northwestern
11) Parker Filius, Purdue
12) Matt Santos, Michigan State
13) Cayden Rooks, Indiana
14) Danny Bertoni, Maryland
ANALYSIS: It wouldn't have been inconceivable for Eierman to be the 3-seed here, given that Rivera was undefeated this year (22-0, 8-0 in Big Ten duals) and absolutely steamrolled opponents (86% bonus rate), but there's not much difference between 2 and 3 in the bracket. Eierman has a bye in the first round, then will see either D'Emilio or Tal Shahar. He didn't face Tal Shahar this year, but beat D'Emilio 4-0. Win that match and he's likely staring at a showdown with Rivera in the semis, which could be one of the best matches of the year. Let's hope we see the best possible Eierman this weekend.
WINNER: Lee over Rivera
IOWA PREDICTION: Eierman - 3rd
149
1) Sammy Sasso, Ohio State
2) Austin Gomez, Wisconsin
3) Ridge Lovett, Nebraska
4) Max Murin, Iowa
5) Yahya Thomas, Northwestern
6) Mike Van Brill, Rutgers
7) Beau Bartlett, Penn State
8) Christian Kanzler, Illinois
9) Graham Rooks, Indiana
10) Michael Blockhus, Minnesota
11) Kanen Storr, Michigan
12) Michael North, Maryland
13) Peyton Omania, Michigan State
14) Alec White, Purdue
ANALYSIS: The 4-seed seems about right for Murin, although that does put him on the same side of the bracket as Sasso. He'll get Omania in the first round; they didn't wrestle this year. Win that and he'll face either Thomas or North. Murin beat Thomas 4-3 on a late takedown earlier this year. If he gets by that match, he'll likely get Sasso in the semis.
WINNER: Sasso over Lovett
IOWA PREDICTION: Murin - 4th
157
1) Ryan Deakin, Northwestern
2) Kaleb Young, Iowa
3) Will Lewan, Michigan
4) Kendall Coleman, Purdue
5) Peyton Robb, Nebraska
6) Chase Saldate, Michigan State
7) Garrett Model, Wisconsin
8) Robert Kanniard, Rutgers
9) Bryce Hepner, Ohio State
10) Brady Berge, Penn State
11) Derek Gilcher, Indiana
12) Joseph Roberts, Illinois
13) Lucas Cordio, Maryland
14) Sebas Swiggum, Minnesota
ANALYSIS: Kaleb Young, 2-seed? Yes, really. That's due to a few things. 157 isn't the strongest weight in the Big Ten (and it got even weaker when Minnesota's Brayton Lee suffered a season-ending injury at the end of the year). And Young did go 7-1 in Big Ten duals, losing only to Lee. He has a bye in the first round and he'll face either Kanniard or Berge in the second round; he didn't wrestle either guy in the regular season. If Berge upsets Kanniard, a Berge-Young match in the second round would be a sneaky-important match in the team race. If Young gets by that match, he should see Michigan's Lewan, who he's never faced previously.
WINNER: Deakin over Young
IOWA PREDICTION: Young - 2nd
165
1) Carson Kharchla, Ohio State
2) Alex Marinelli, Iowa
3) Dean Hamiti, Wisconsin
4) Camerone Amine, Michigan
5) Caleb Fish, Michigan State
6) Dan Braunagel, Illinois
7) Hayden Lohrey, Purdue
8) Clayton Wilson, Nebraska
9) Cael Carlson, Minnesota
10) Creighton Edsell, Penn State
11) David Ferrante, Northwestern
12) Andrew Clark, Rutgers
13) Kasper McIntosh, Indiana
14) Gaven Bell, Maryland
ANALYSIS: That upset loss to Kharchla earlier in the season cost Marinelli the 1-seed at this weight. The impact of that is that he now will probably have to beat both Hamiti and Kharchla if he wants to win his 4th Big Ten Championship. Not impossible by any means, but certainly a harder path than if he only had to beat one of them. Marinelli has a bye in the first round and he'll face either Lohrey or Edsell in the second round; he didn't wrestle either guy in the regular season. Win that and he's likely got a rematch with Hamiti in the semis; he beat him 8-5 earlier in the season.
WINNER: Marinelli over Kharchla
IOWA PREDICTION: Marinelli - 1st
174
1) Carter Starocci, Penn State
2) Logan Massa, Michigan
3) Mikey Labriola, Nebraska
4) Michael Kemerer, Iowa
5) Ethan Smith, Ohio State
6) Bailee O'Reilly, Michigan State
7) Troy Fisher, Northwestern
8) Gerrit Nijenhuis, Purdue
9) Dominic Solis, Maryland
10) DJ Shannon, Illinois
11) Andrew McNally, Wisconsin
12) Nick South, Indiana
13) Connor O'Neill, Rutgers
14) Nate Jimenez, Michigan State
ANALYSIS: Kemerer's loss to Labriola in the regular season finale was costly, dropping him from the 2- or 3-seed to the 4-seed and putting him on the same side of the bracket as Starocci. If you're a glass half-full person, you could say that Kemerer was probably going to have to beat Starocci at some point in order to win a title and this way he gets a chance to drop Starocci to the consolation bracket, which could be meaningful in the team race. Still, facing Starocci in the semis -- in what would be Kemerer's third match of the day -- is going to be tough sledding if that's how things shake out. Kemerer gets O'Neill in the first round and either Smith or South in the next round if he wins that match. He beat Smith 6-3 earlier this season, but didn't face the other two.
WINNER: Starocci over Labriola
IOWA PREDICTION: Kemerer - 3rd
184
1) Aaron Brooks, Penn State
2) Myles Amine, Michigan
3) Kaleb Romero, Ohio State
4) Taylor Venz, Nebraska
5) Abe Assad, Iowa
6) Layne Malczewski, Michigan State
7) John Poznanski, Rutgers
8) Kyle Cochran, Maryland
9) Donnell Washington, Indiana
10) Isaiah Salazar, Minnesota
11) Christopher Weiler, Wisconsin
12) Zach Braunagel, Illinois
13) Max Lyon, Purdue
14) Jack Jessen, Northwestern
ANALYSIS: Assad got the 5-seed, which puts him on the same side of the bracket as top seed Aaron Brooks and 4-seed Taylor Venz -- who just pinned Assad the last time they faced off. Gulp. Assad was doing some nice things in that match until the third period and he does have a win over Venz from earlier in their careers. He'll face Braunagel in the first round; he beat him 5-2 earlier this year. Win that and he'll likely face Venz.
WINNER: Brooks over Amine
IOWA PREDICTION: Assad - 5th
197
1) Eric Schultz, Nebraska
2) Max Dean, Penn State
3) Cameron Caffey, Michigan State
4) Jacob Warner, Iowa
5) Patrick Brucki, Michigan
6) Thomas Penola, Purdue
7) Greg Bulsak, Rutgers
8) Braxton Amos, Wisconsin
9) Gavin Hoffman, Ohio State
10) Andrew Davison, Northwestern
11) Jaron Smith, Maryland
12) Michial Foy, Minnesota
13) Nick Willham, Indiana
14) Matt Wroblewski, Illinois
ANALYSIS: Warner got the 4-seed, which puts him on the same side of the bracket as Brucki (a potentially tricky 5-seed) and Schultz (the 1-seed, and Warner's nemesis of late). But there isn't too much separating the top four guys at this weight, frankly. Warner gets Willham in the first round; he's 2-0 against him lifetime, including a major decision win in the Big Ten Tournament two years ago. Win that match and he'll face either Brucki or Foy; Warner beat Foy 6-4 earlier this year and split two matches with Brucki (when Brucki was at Princeton) two years ago. Get by that and he's probably looking at another match with Schultz in the semis.
WINNER: Schultz over Caffey
IOWA PREDICTION: Warner - 4th
285
1) Gable Steveson, Minnesota
2) Tony Cassioppi, Iowa
3) Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State
4) Mason Parris, Michigan
5) Lucas Davison, Northwestern
6) Christian Lance, Nebraska
7) Trent Hillger, Wisconsin
8) Tate Orndorff, Ohio State
9) Luke Luffman, Illinois
10) Jacob Bullock, Indiana
11) Michael Woulfe, Purdue
12) Boone McDermott, Rutgers
13) Brad Wilton, Michigan State
14) Zach Schrader, Maryland
ANALYSIS: Big Ten scheduling played a key role in the seeds here. Parris faced Steveson and Kerkvliet; he lost both. Cassioppi faced Steveson and Kerkvliet; he lost to Gable but beat Kerkvliet. Kerkvliet faced Cassioppi and Parris; he lost to Cassioppi but beat Parris. All that means is that Parris drops to the 4-seed, setting up a possible Big Ten semifinal (Steveson-Parris) that most people had penciled in as the Big Ten and NCAA final this year. Cassioppi has a bye in the first round, then faces either Hillger or Bullock in the second round. He didn't face Bullock this year, but he's had a lot of success against Hillger, including a 10-0 win a few weeks ago. Win that match and he's probably getting another clash with Kerkvliet, who he beat 7-2 at the dual this year.
WINNER: Steveson over Cassioppi
IOWA PREDICTION: Cassioppi - 2nd
Would that predicted performance be good enough for Iowa to earn a Big Ten title? I doubt it. My predictions have Penn State winning four Big Ten titles (133, 141, 174, 184) and Iowa winning just one (165). Two keys for Iowa to upset Penn State this weekend: maximize points at 149-157-165 and win as many head-to-head matches as possible.
]Penn State may not get many points at 149-157-165, so those weights could be a big opportunity for Iowa to make up ground on them; Marinelli and Young have legit opportunities to be finalists, while Murin showed that he could hang with Sasso in their match earlier this year; if he can pull the upset this time, that would be a big deal. And while I projected Penn State champs at 133, 141, and 174, their toughest challengers could all be Iowa wrestlers and they could face Iowa wrestlers in big matches this weekend; if that happens, we need DeSanto, Eierman, and Kemerer to overcome their recent losses and get some big wins. Do that and suddenly Iowa could be the one with 3-4 Big Ten champions, which would change the complexion of the title race quite a bit.
We'll find out how it all shakes out starting tomorrow.
