We are here, the penultimate weekend of the season, with eight Big Ten teams bowl-eligible, three eliminated from the postseason (Indiana, Nebraska, and Northwestern), and three (Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers) clinging tightly to bowl hopes. One of Maryland or Rutgers is guaranteed to make it since they are both 5-5 and they play each other next week, so one of them has to finish with six wins. Illinois is eliminated with a loss to either Iowa or Northwestern, and you can about guess how I want that to end up.
It is not at all clear who will wind up in Indianapolis, though. The top three teams in the East -- Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State -- all have at least one game left against the other two. Ohio State is the league’s sole undefeated team (in conference games) and the favorite to win the division. Michigan State would need to win out and root for Michigan to beat aOSU in The Game; Michigan would need to win out and have Sparty lose out.
In the West the Badgers and Hawkeyes are tied at 5-2 but the Badgers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Iowa, so the Hawks will have to win out (very possible) and have either Nebraska or Minnesota beat Wisconsin (more than theoretically possible, but don’t count on it). At any rate, whoever goes, they’ll lose to Ohio State.
I have biffed on a couple important games this season but I think overall this is my best season picking games since I started twenty seasons ago. Once again this week I only missed one game but, like usual, holy crap did I miss it:
- Rutgers at Indiana: I said IU 24, RU 20; actual score RU 38, IU 3. I am beginning to think Tom Allen is not actually a football genius, you guys.
- Minnesota at Iowa: I said Iowa 30, Minny 13; actual score, Iowa 27, Minny 22. I grew up in Fort Dodge and I thank the Hawks for protecting our pig.
- Maryland at Michigan State: I said Sparty 42, Maryland 23; actual score, Sparty 40, Maryland 21. I think this is my closest prediction all year.
- Purdue at Ohio State: I said aOSU 44, Undue Perversity 24; actual score, aOSU 59, Undue Perversity 31. At least someone stopped the Boilermakers.
- Michigan at Penn State: I said UM 27, PSU 17; actual score, UM 21, PSU 17. I am still not sure Michigan is actually any good, you guys.
- Northwestern at Wisconsin: I said Wiscy 48, jNWU 10; actual score, Wiscy 35, jNWU 7. Fitz is behind us so I can laugh now at Odd-Year Northwestern.
So let’s look at this week as the warm-up to a Thanksgiving weekend full of heated rivalries, plus the Iowa-Nebraska game!
PURDUE AT NORTHWESTERN (11 AM CST, BTN)
Purdue is bowl-eligible and likely to finish 8-4, with wins over two Top Ten teams. This resume, or something slightly worse than it, has gotten Iowa to enough Outback Bowls that we have all started to wonder what Bloomin’ Shrimp and Coconut Onions would taste like. (Like an argument, that’s what.)
Anything witty or insightful I could say about this game is overriden by the fact that this is the worst Northwestern team since Fitz’s first couple of seasons. I mean, they’re just bad. Purdue is about as complete as a garage sale Scrabble set, but it has far more offensive firepower than jNWU does and enough defense to stop Northwestern should the Wildcats fail to stop themselves first.
Aiden Comfort 38, Fight For Your Right To Marty 10.
#7 MICHIGAN STATE AT #4 OHIO STATE (11 AM CST, ABC)
This is the Game of the Week, and not just in the Big Ten. It’s impossible not to be dazzled by what Mel Tucker has done in East Lansing under difficult circumstances. People are talking about Sparty positively again, and I didn’t think that would ever happen, for reasons we shan’t discuss.
But every story has to have a villain, and Ohio State has been filling that role for the rest of the Big Ten all season. After looking mortal during the first 3-4 weeks of the season, the Buckeyes have congealed like turkey fat on the side of a garbage can. It doesn’t matter what else happens. All hope in the Big Ten, especially in the East, is false hope until the Buckeyes finally screw up a coaching hire. Which they didn’t after Urban walked off.
Woody Earle John Jim Urban Ryan 45, We’re Still Better Off Than We Were 21.
RUTGERS AT PENN STATE (11 AM CST, BTN)
Amaze your friends. Tell them this is a game between a 6-4 team and a 5-5 team. They’ll swear Penn State’s record is better than that, but it isn’t.
It would be amazing and hilarious if Rutgers could pull off the upset here but I don’t see it happening, the Nits have more than pride left to play for. Rutgers is playing for pride and a trip to Detroit in December.
Coaching Rumor Mill 27, Same Old New Jersey 17.
MINNESOTA AT INDIANA (2:30 PM CST, BTN)
I have obtained Indiana’s hype video for this game:
… I mean, how can Minnesota lose?
What The Bleep Was THAT? 34, We Don’t Know But We Paid $75K For It 12.
#6 MICHIGAN AT MARYLAND (2:30 PM CST, BTN)
Maryland has struggled with injuries all season, which is unfortunate, but is also part of football. I think the Terps are markedly improved, but next week it’s likely that they’ll be fighting Rutgers for the Big Ten’s last bowl bid.
As for Michigan, as I said above (and have said for the last four or five weeks), I have no idea if they’re any good or not, and a match against an overmatched Maryland team won’t tell me anything. I smell a heartbreaking Game next week, though.
Almost As Good As We Think We Are 41, The Spoilers Are Spoiled 24.
NEBRASKA AT #15 WISCONSIN (2:30 PM CST, ABC)
There is literally nothing that points to Scott Frost being on solid ground right now. If he loses the last two games of the season to finish 3-9 I think he’s cooked, even after firing a chunk of his staff. He might get another season but after his fifth loss next year they’d cut him loose and start all over. Again. But who can blame them? His players aren’t progressing and he keeps making the same mistakes. He’s a living argument why there are some leagues where success means little because every year they are random results generators.
Wisconsin is boring. You know you are boring if an Iowa fan calls you boring. But boring isn’t a problem unless you’re also bad. Wisconsin is boring and good. Therefore, it will beat Nebraska.
U Mad, (i)Son? 44, From Lincoln To LinkedIn 20.
And finally …
ILLINOIS AT #17 IOWA (1 PM CST, FS1)
I had high hopes for the return of Bert to Iowa City, but he got the virus and won’t be there. I am not sure how much effect this will have on the game, though.
Illinois is better right now than it ever was under Lovie Smith. That sounds like faint praise, and it kind of is, but I think the Illini hired the right coach. Illinois is not the recruiting hotbed people make it out to be. So embracing a power-oriented, player-development scheme is a great move for them. I think they’ll be dangerous. Someday. But not now.
As I write this on Wednesday night, Iowa’s starting QB has not been announced. You can count me among the many who believe the offense has performed better under Alex Padilla than it did under Spencer Petras. But my opinion doesn’t count. At least in this game it’s not going to matter much who’s under center as the Hawks simply out-talent the Illini. But I’ll tell you this much: I never again want to see Iowa’s o-line and run game perform as poorly as they both did this season. Stop me if you’ve heard this one: Iowa, in a game that’s closer than it should be.
Playing Out The String 23, Get Well Soon 13.
Last week: 5-1 (.833)
Season: 58-23 (.716)
