Iowa Basketball Better Be Ready To Sprint

So here's the good news, Iowa fans: after that ugly stretch of losing three out of four games a few weeks ago (which included a pair of truly gross road losses to Rutgers and Penn State), Iowa has rattled off three wins in a row. Granted, they've kind of been beating up on the Big Ten's lightweights -- Minnesota, Maryland, Nebraska (aka, the Big Ten's three lowest-rated teams in the KenPom rankings) -- but hey. Wins are wins, especially this time of the year. 

Those wins have pushed Iowa to 17-7 overall and 7-6 in the Big Ten, their first over-.500 record in Big Ten play all season. That brings us to another piece of good news: right now, Iowa is firmly in the NCAA Tournament. Team Rankings pegs them for a 9-seed currently and gives them an 87% chance of making the Field of 68. The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix aggregates 115 mock brackets from around the interwebs and Iowa currently appears on all 115 of those brackets, ranging from a 4-seed (!!!) to a 12-seed, with an average of an 8-seed.

The high-profile bracketologists are divided on where Iowa might land on the seed lines. ESPN's Joe Lunardi is pretty bullish on the Hawkeyes; he has them as a 7-seed. CBS' Jerry Palm is much less bullish; he has Iowa as an 11-seed. NCAA.com's Andy Katz has Iowa as a 7-seed, SBN's Chris Dobbertean has them as an 8-seed, which is also where SI.com's Kevin Sweeney has them. USA Today's Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson have them as a 10-seed. 

All of which is to say that Iowa is in a pretty good position at present, at least in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. (Our long-held goal of seeing Iowa return to the Sweet 16 would be looking a lot better if Iowa was projected as a Top-5 seed, but baby steps.) But they also still have work to do, which brings us to this week -- or really the next 12 days. Because Iowa wraps up the season in March with two road games at Michigan and Illinois and it would be really good for the Hawkeyes to have locked up an NCAA Tournament spot by then; we really don't want to have to go into Ann Arbor or Champaign needing to pick up a win, you know? 

Getting to that position will mean taking care of over the next two weeks, which feature five games in 12 days to wrap up February. Here's the slate: 

Iowa's resume so far has been solid, but mainly based around having quite a few wins and no bad losses. One glaring absence from their resume: good wins. Iowa is currently 0-6 in Quad 1 games this season (though their wins over Virginia and Utah State could become Quad 1 wins if the Cavaliers and Aggies could win a few more games and move up in the NET rankings). But two of the next three games offer fresh opportunity for Iowa to claim a Quad 1 victory. To recap, Quad 1 wins are wins over a Top 30 team at home, a Top 50 team on a neutral court, and a Top 75 team on the road. Right now, Iowa's home game with Michigan (NET: 37) would not qualify, but the road game with Ohio State (NET: 17) and the home game with Michigan State (NET: 27) would. 

So far Iowa has defended its home court well against everyone except Illinois and Purdue. There's not much shame in losing those games (though a win over either would have been a very nice feather in Iowa's cap). It would be very good if Iowa can maintain that level of home court success in their final three home games: Michigan, Michigan State, and Northwestern (NET: 66). Iowa is just 2-4 in Big Ten road games this season and their odds of getting more wins away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena look difficult (aside from the trip to Lincoln). 

This five game stretch opens with three games in six days, but I would categorize those games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State as primarily positive opportunities. Winning them would provide a nice boost to Iowa's case for making the NCAA Tournament, while losing them wouldn't be crippling (although losing all of them would be bad and losing both home games would also be pretty damaging, I think). The games against Nebraska and Northwestern are better categorized as negative opportunities. Winning them isn't going to boost Iowa's resume in the slightest -- but losing them could be very damaging. Again, one of Iowa's strongest arguments this season is the lack of bad losses (the Rutgers and Penn State losses were painful, but not truly bad in terms of the NET rankings). Iowa is 12-0 in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games and 5-1 in Quad 2 games.

Iowa is certainly a better team than Nebraska or Northwestern this season, but those games still smell like trap games. The Nebraska game comes just a few days after Iowa completes the Michigan-Ohio State-Michigan State gauntlet and will be played on a Friday night in a sleepy gym against a Nebraska team that would love to spring an upset. And we've certainly seen Iowa stumble through some road games this year and toss up truly rotten shooting efforts (Iowa State, Rutgers, Penn State). Northwestern is feisty. Only one of their 12 losses this season has been by double-digits and they've had several close calls and almost got 'im efforts this year; Iowa needs to make sure that almost got 'im doesn't turn into a got 'im. 

As far as this week's games go, Michigan has been hot-and-cold all season, and that's been particularly true of late. Last week they followed up a one-point road win over Penn State with a 24-point hamblasting of Purdue at home... and followed that up by getting torched by Ohio State in Columbus. In Big Ten play, the Wolverines have been good on offense (4th in offensive efficiency) and lousy on defense (11th in defensive efficiency, three spots worse than Iowa). They've had success on offense by making shots (52.7 3FG%, 3rd), especially 2-point shots (52.6%, 3rd). They've also been very good at getting offensive rebounds (30.9%, 2nd). Rebounding could be a critical factor in the game -- Michigan has been great in Big Ten games at hauling in their own misses and preventing opponents from doing so, while Iowa has been OK at hauling in their own misses but terrible at preventing opponents from getting offensive boards. If Michigan wins that battle decisively, things could be very difficult for Iowa in this game. 

Iowa-Ohio State will feature the regular season's lone showdown between the two best players in the league, per KenPom's player rankings, Keegan Murray and EJ Liddell. As good as Murray has been, Liddell has also been excellent this season. He's averaging 19.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.5 bpg, and 0.5 spg, while shooting 51.7% from the field and 40.2% from 3-point range. He's been dynamite this year and slowing him down will be a big ask for Iowa's defense. But Ohio State, like Iowa and Michigan, is another team that marries a very potent offense with a fairly limp defense. Ohio State ranks 8th nationally in offensive efficiency -- but just 82nd nationally in defensive efficiency. Whichever offense is hotter is likely to win that game. 

Finally, Michigan State could be entering their game with Iowa next Tuesday on the heels of a major slide. They've currently lost three of their last four games, including somewhat head-scratching defeats at Rutgers and Penn State (those results were sandwiched around a home loss to Wisconsin and a home win over Indiana). Their only game before the Iowa game next Tuesday is a home game against Illinois on Saturday. This feels like a slightly unusual Sparty team in that they're good on offense (32nd nationally) and defense (48th nationally), but not exceptional in either area. They also turn the ball over a lot and don't force many turnovers themselves, which could be good for an Iowa team that doesn't give the ball away much on offense and is at its best when it can force turnovers on defense and get into transition. One area of concern: MSU is making 38.3% (10th best, nationally) of their three-point tries this season; if they get hot from deep it could be a painful night for Iowa. 

Iowa basketball is headed into the stretch run now. The games are about to come (very) fast and furious over the next few weeks and while Iowa is in pretty good position to at least make the NCAA Tournament at present, too much slippage could put them squarely on the bubble. That could make for a very stressful final week of the season and anxiety-inducing journey to the Big Ten Tournament. Let's see if Iowa can seize the opportunities in front of them over the next two weeks.