WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (3-5, 1-4 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Saturday, November 6)
WHERE: Ryan Field (Evanston, IL)
TV: BTN (Cory Provus, Matt Millen, Elise Menaker)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (TuneIn, or local listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 195
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: clear, highs in the low 50s, winds around 10 mph
LINE: Iowa -12.0 (TOTAL: 40.5)
NOTE: Don't forget to follow all the action during the game and chat with your fellow Iowa fans in the Go Iowa Awesome discord! (More info here.)
No one has ever needed a "get right" game -- ever -- more than the Iowa offense after two consecutive dismal performances that totaled a combined -- combined -- 14 points. Fortunately, not many Big Ten defense have been more accommodating to opposing offenses this season than Northwestern, who's allowing 27.1 ppg, 12th in the league. Outside of Rutgers (who managed just seven points), all four of Northwestern's other Big Ten opponents have topped 30+ points in their games against the Wildcats. That's promising!
Northwestern has been especially vulnerable on the ground, where they have been absolutely bleeding yards (and touchdowns) to opposing rushing games. The Wildcats are dead last in rushing defense -- by a mile -- at 229.9 yards per game, a full 70 yards worse than the next lousiest run defense. They're giving up 5.5 yards per carry and they've conceded a league-worst 22 rushing touchdowns.
Iowa counters with one of the Big Ten's most anemic rushing offenses, averaging a meager 105 yards per game this year and just 2.9 yards per carry. That includes a combined 100 yards rushing over the last two games against Purdue and Wisconsin. What happens when the extremely movable object meets an extremely stoppable force?
But let's be honest: if Tyler Goodson & Co. can't get the Iowa running game on track in this game, there's little reason to think that it's going to happen this season. That said, Northwestern won't make it easy for Iowa -- Fitz & Co. never do. We can expect them to load the box and try to overwhelm Iowa's offensive line and smother Goodson behind the line of scrimmage, especially since that's been an effective gameplan against Iowa pretty much all season. While we want to see the Iowa run game get going here, Spencer Petras is going to need to convert a few passes in this game and punish Northwestern if they try to put 8 or 9 defenders in the box. To do that he'll also need the offensive line to provide better pass protection than we've seen of late.
This game is a definite crossroads moment for this team and this season. A third-straight loss and the odds of this season going completely off the rails will be extremely high. A win would hardly solve all of Iowa's issues, but it would at least stop the bleeding and enable them to regain their footing for this season. Getting back to Indianapolis will still require assistance from other teams, but that goal becomes truly impossible with another loss. And even if a Big Ten West title is outside their grasp (which remains immensely frustrating) and a 9-10 win season without a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game would feel pretty hollow, it's not nothing. It would beat another spin on the 6-6/7-5 treadmill at least.
So what happens? I do think Iowa will post their best rushing performance since the Maryland game a month ago, but I expect the offense to continue to struggle to score points. I expect the defense to make it difficult for Northwestern to score and I think they'll end their turnover drought as well. Assuming Iowa can avoid gifting an opponent three turnovers inside their own 20-yard line for a second straight week, I think they'll be able to do enough to win the game. But it probably won't be too aesthetically pleasing.
IOWA 23, NORTHWESTERN 10
