WHO: Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-8, 1-7 Big Ten)
WHEN: 12:30 PM CT (Friday, November 26)
WHERE: Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
TV: BTN (Brandon Gaudin, James Laurinaitis, Rick Pizzo)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (TuneIn, or local listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 195
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: clear, highs in the upper 50s (!)
LINE: Nebraska -1 (TOTAL: 41)
The end of the regular season is here and with it, Iowa's chance to notch a 10-win regular season (which would be their first since 2015), retain their hopes of winning the Big Ten West division (though that will still come down to needing Minnesota to upset Wisconsin tomorrow, since Iowa does not control its own destiny in the West race), and earn a seventh straight victory over Nebraska. Those are certainly things worth playing for.
While this Nebraska team has a similar record to the sad sack Husker outfits of recent years, they've been better than that statistically, especially on defense. Nebraska is 38th nationally in scoring defense (22.2 ppg), 55th nationally in total defense (366.2 ypg), and 43rd nationally in yards per play allowed (5.27). Their run defense has been OK; they're giving up 143.4 ypg on the ground (56th nationally), including 4.07 ypc and 11 TD. In Big Ten play, the run defense has been a bit Jekyll-and-Hyde, though; they allowed 150+ yards to Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, but kept Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State under 90 yards each.
Through the air Nebraska is allowing 221.6 ypg through (58th), though opponents are completing 65.8% of their passes against the Huskers. They've also allowed 14 TD against 10 INT. Nebraska's defense hasn't generated a lot of pressure on opposing QBs -- 18 sacks (102nd), 25 QB hurries. That could be good news for an Iowa offensive line that's conceded 29 sacks this year (97th), though just four since Alex Padilla took over at QB.
On offense, Nebraska has been good this year, though they've struggled to turn production into points (and wins). They're averaging 28.5 ppg (66th nationally), but 457.5 ypg (19th) and 6.6 yards er play (18th). Nebraska is 23rd in passing offense (272.6 ypg), while completing 62.2% of their passes for 14 TD and 10 INT. 9.4 yards per attempt (7th best nationally) does indicate that their passing game has had some proficiency for hitting bigger plays, too. Their run game has also been respectable, averaging 184.8 yards per game (46th) and 4.6 yards per carry (52nd) and racking up 28 TD. But Nebraska ranks just 111th in red zone conversions, scoring on 38 of 50 trips (76%). One reason for all those failed red zone conversions? Lousy kicking -- Nebraska kickers have made just 8 of 16 field goal tries this season.
One big caveat for all of those Nebraska offensive stats, though: they were achieved with Adrian Martinez running the show at QB. Martinez is not expected to play today due to a shoulder injury, meaning the job of running the offense will (probably) fall to inexperienced backup QB Logan Smothers. How much that will impact Nebraska's offense remains to be seen, but it certainly could be problematic for them.
Two things have killed Nebraska this season: penalties and (especially) turnovers. Nebraska's overall turnover numbers this season haven't been bad -- 5.3 per game, 44.5 penalties yards per game (30th nationally) -- but they've had an uncanny knack for getting bad penalties at the worst times during games. Nebraska's turnover issues are well-documented. They've forced 12 turnovers this season (10 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries), which ranks 99th. On the flip side of the ledger, they've allowed 16 turnovers this season (10 interceptions, 4 fumble recoveries). That's middle of the pack in terms of turnovers conceded (66th nationally), but their -4 turnover margin is 94th nationally. And, much like the penalties, they've had a knack for turning the ball over at the worst possible moments (often late in close games).
In a few ways, this game does appear to play to some of Iowa's strengths this season. Iowa's defense is (as usual) good at bending but not breaking, while Nebraska's offense has been good at moving down the field, but not at turning those drives into points. Iowa's defense has also been excellent at forcing turnovers this season, while Nebraska has been prone to bad giveaways (something which could be exacerbated by the presence of an inexperienced QB). If Iowa's defense can force turnovers and/or prevent Nebraska from assembling multiple long scoring drives, they should have an excellent chance to win this game. Is that what's going to happen today? I've had a bad feeling about this game for a while, but Nebraska isn't quite as fearsome without Martinez at the helm. That, plus Iowa's knack for doing just enough this season to win (against everyone but Purdue and Wisconsin) feels like it will be enough for one more win over Big Red.
IOWA 23, NEBRASKA 14
