Four Things We Learned From the 2022 Big Ten Wrestling Tournament

The 2022 Big Ten Wrestling Tournament is in the books and the 2022 NCAA Wrestling Tournament is just over a week away. What did we learn from Big Tens? And how do things look heading into NCAAs?

1. Injuries are a killer

As we saw over the weekend, this is one very banged-up Iowa wrestling team at the moment, dealing with injuries at multiple weights. That (as well as the season-ending surgery for Spencer Lee earlier in the year) dashed Iowa's hopes of completing a Big Ten title three-peat from 2020-2022. Can we quantify just how much injuries hurt Iowa? Well... here's a comparison of the finishes at each weight in 2021 and 2022.

And here are the final team scores for the Top 3 in 2021:

And in 2022: 

Michigan-Penn State-Iowa were a more dominant Top 3 this year than we saw last year, when Penn State was able to secure a runner-up finish with just 124 points. Iowa ran away with the title last year by fielding a lineup with strong balance (the only weakness at Big Tens last year was 149, where Max Murin had a very forgettable 0-2 effort) and excellent top-end ability (Iowa had six finalists and four champions last year, compared to four finalists and just one champion this year). 

But those injuries... Iowa scored 30 fewer points this year than last year. And you can find almost all of those 30 points in the differences at 125 and 174. Drake Ayala, injured himself and in the impossible position of replacing Spencer Lee, scored 18.5 fewer points than Lee did at 125 last year, while an injured Michael Kemerer scored 11 fewer points this year (when he defaulted to a sixth-place finish) than last year (when he won a Big Ten championship). There's 29.5 points right there. 

And it's really probably just the Spencer Lee factor. If he's in the lineup and wins another title, that's another 15+ points for Iowa -- in a title race that they lost by 13.5 points. Even if Lee doesn't win a title here (apologies for the heretical hypothetical, but two things: one, Nick Suriano looked absolutely sensational at 125 this year; and two: if we got Lee on the mat this year, he clearly would not have been the all-conquering dynamo we're accustomed to -- we saw that much from this performances in Florida earlier in the season), a runner-up finish would have netted another 10 points or so, which would have put Iowa squarely in the title race. Obviously there's no use crying over spilled milk -- Spencer's been gone for a few months now and it is what it is -- but it's still a little reminder of just how much his absence hurts Iowa. 

That said, while the drop-offs at 125 and 174 were the most pronounced, in all Iowa had fewer points at seven different weights between this year and last year. Two weights were pushes (133 and 165, where Austin DeSanto and Alex Marinelli not only matched their finishes from last season, but also their individual point totals) and just one weight (149) was improved from a year ago. That was a pretty big improvement -- Max Murin went from an 0-2 DNP finish a year ago to a 3rd place, 15.5-point finish this year, which was great to see -- but this improvement basically washed out the declines at 141, 157, 184, 197, and 285. The most curious decline was probably 285, where Tony Cassioppi scored 3.5 fewer points this year despite improving from a 3rd place finish to a Big Ten runner-up finish. How? Well, he wrestled two extra matches last year and he was a bonus point demon -- in his four wins a year ago he had two pins and two major decisions (six extra points). This year his wins were two decisions (no extra points).  

2. Is Michigan for real? 

I, like a lot of observers, though that the Big Ten Tournament was mainly a two-horse race this year, with Penn State as solid favorites and Iowa having the best chance to knock them off if a few things broke their way. I did not factor in Michigan as a major challenger, partly because I hadn't seen them much this year (they didn't wrestle Iowa in a dual meet, which didn't help) and and partly because they'd gotten their clocks cleaned by Penn State in a dual meet earlier this season. Well... whoops. (And further evidence that dual meets are entertaining, but often not great predictors for what will happen in tournaments.) 

Michigan roared to a their first Big Ten championship in almost 50 years (last title: 1973!) on the backs of five finalists and two champions, Nick Suriano at 125 and Myles Amine at 184, who won maybe the match of the tournament over Penn State's Aaron Brooks in the final. That match was some good-ass wrestling. But can Michigan duplicate this success at the NCAA Tournament in Detroit, Michigan in a little over a week? Well... maybe. 

Michigan had five finalists at Big Ten this year, but two of them -- Will Lewan at 157 and Cameron Amine at 165 -- took advantage of (or caused) upsets to get to the finals. Their path back to the finals at NCAAs may be challenging, considering they're unlikely to be seeded better than 5th or 6th at their respective weights. Suriano and Myles Amine will be Top 2 seeds at their respective weights and should have excellent shots to get to the finals. That leaves Logan Massa at 174, where he's likely to be the 3- or 4-seed. Even if Massa is able to get to the finals, can Michigan win a title with three finalists? Maybe, but they'll need the rest of their team to show up at other weights, too.

Penn State's advantage remains their top-end strength -- they had five finalists and four champions at Big Tens (133, 141, 174, 184, and 197) and all of them should have very strong opportunities to make the NCAA finals as well. Bravo-Young, (Nick) Lee, and Starocci should be 1-seeds at their respective weights and Max Dean might also be the 1-seed at 197, although that weight is a bit hard to sort out. Aaron Brooks won't be seeded any lower than the 2-seed and he'll be a heavy favorite to get to the finals from there at 184 lbs. If Penn State is able to get all five of those guys into the finals, that will probably be almost 100 points in the team race right there.  They tripped up at Big Tens because they got one point total out of two weights (125 and 165) and just 7.5 out of 149. That could bite them again, but having such a strong base with Bravo-Young, Lee, Starocci, Brooks, and Dean gives them a very high floor in the NCAA title team race. 

3. Those plucky Wildcats 

Shout-out to Northwestern, who became the only Big Ten team aside from Iowa to qualify all wrestlers for the NCAA Tournament at all 10 weights and who tied Ohio State for fourth place at Big Tens this year with 91.5 points. If you had told me a Big Ten NU would finish in the Top 5 at Big Tens, I would have bet the farm on the home mat-having Cornhuskers being the team to do so. They could only muster a 7th place finish, though, after a 3rd-place finish a year ago at Big Tens. Northwestern was paced by 157 lb champion Ryan Deakin, as usual, but they had five other wrestlers finish in the Top 5 at their respective weights, most of whom were not seeded to do so. And they even did that with one of their best wrestlers (Yahya Thomas at 149) going 1-2. This was kind of a messy year for the Big Ten's second tier, with Ohio State in the midst of a rebuild and Minnesota being ravaged by injuries, but Northwestern seized their opportunities and got a Top 5 finish to show for it. Kudos.

4. What do Iowa's seeds look like at NCAAs? 

The official brackets and seeds are due to be released later today (5 PM CT), but let's look at where Iowa's wrestlers might get slotted: 

• 125 Drake Ayala -- did not help his case at Big Tens, though he does have some good wins from earlier in the season. A seed in the 12-16 range seems likely for him. 
   
• 133 Austin DeSanto -- He won't be any higher than 3 (RBY and Dalton Fix will be 1/2), but the question is whether he falls to 4 or 5 behind champions from other conferences. I hope not (and it helps that his only losses are to RBY and Fix), but I don't think it's a sure thing. 
   
• 141 Jaydin Eierman -- I don't think he'll be any lower than the 2 or 3. 
   
• 149 Max Murin -- One of the few Iowa wrestlers who did improve his standing at Big Tens. I think Max will be in the 7-10 range at this weight. The bad news there is that the 8/9 seed would put him in line to wrestle 1-seed Yianni Diakomihalis in the quarters, but I guess we can cross that bridge if we get there.
   
• 157 Kaleb Young -- The 9-12 range seems about right for Young. I think he'll need to do most of his damage in the consolation bracket. 
   
• 165 Alex Marinelli -- 3 looks right for The Bull, since there are two undefeated conference champions at this weight (Cal Poly's Evan Wick and Missouri's Keegan O'Toole). That would be a good spot for him, too, as it would likely keep Wick (1-seed) and Wisconsin's dangerous Dean Hamiti (possible 4/5-seed) on the opposite side of the bracket. 
   
• 174 Michael Kemerer -- Since 2/3 are off the table, I would like to see Kemerer fall to 6/7 here, to keep him on the opposite side of the bracket from Starocci until the finals. Alas, it seems like he could be the 5-seed here, which could give him a tough quarterfinals draw with NC State's Hayden Hidlay and and a possible semifinal match with Starocci. Yuck. 
   
• 184 Abe Assad -- Probably in the 17-20 range, given his underwhelming run at Big Tens (and largely underwhelming run to end the season, for that matter). Hopefully Assad can shock the world a bit at NCAAs. 
   
• 197 Jacob Warner -- A slot in the 5-7 range seems about right for Warner after his 4th place finish at Big Tens. A spot at 6/7 might not be bad for Warner if it keeps Max Dean and Michigan's Patrick Brucki (possible 4-5 seed who beat him twice at Big Tens) on the other side of the bracket. 
   
• 285 Tony Cassioppi -- Cassioppi's huge comeback win over Penn State's Greg Kerkvliet in the Big Ten semis should make him the 3-seed here, behind Gable Steveson at 1 and Arizona State's Cohlton Schultz at 2. That's big, since the strategy at heavyweight is "avoid Gable Steveson as long as possible." If Kerk and Michigan's Mason Parris wind up at 4/5 here and also on the opposite side of the bracket from Tony... even better.