Did you survive Iowa’s bye week? I mean, I know not everyone who reads this column is an Iowa fan, but I have to ask anyway. I spent yet another Saturday at a high school marching band competition, supporting my middle child by driving halfway across Missouri to pay $10 for a wristband and $2 for a Coke to watch a show I’d already seen eleven times. I’d do it again, but next time I’d bring more cash. Had a nice drive back home along the Mississippi river, passing through some very quaint and scenic towns about 32 hours before they got hit by a tornado. I was unaware of the outcome of Penn State-Illinois until I got home. Reader, I LOLed. My pick for that game was very wrong but I didn’t care.
In fact “wrong” is becoming a theme for my picks. Let’s take a look:
- Ohio State at Indiana: I said aOSU 48, IU 28; actual score, aOSU 54, IU 7. Remember when Indiana was a Top Ten team? Pepperidge Farms remembers.
- Northwestern at Michigan: I said UM 38, jNWU 10; actual score, Michigan 33, jNWU 7. My most accurate pick of the week, which ain’t saying much.
- Maryland at Minnesota: I said Maryland 34, Minny 17; actual score, Minnesota 34, Maryland 16. Look, I almost had the score right, so what if I had the teams reversed?
- Illinois at Penn State: I said PSU 34, Illinois 10; actual score, Illinois 20, PSU 18 (37 OT). Like I said, I LOLed.
- Wisconsin at Purdue: I said PU 27, Sconnie 12; actual score, Sconnie 30, Purdue 13. Apparently all you need to do is put two guys on David Bell and he’s not a factor any more. Huh.
We have been through what feels like 17 straight weeks of uninspiring and uninspired games in the Big Ten. I’m happy to report that the rest of the season looks very solid, as every game on the schedule is compelling for one reason or another. Yes, even the very first one, which is …
RUTGERS AT ILLINOIS (11 AM CDT, BTN)
Compelling? Really? Well … yeah. Illinois may not have its act entirely together this year but it’s developing an identity; specifically, an identity as what the Badgers were under Bret Bielema. The Illini simply attacked Penn State with brute force and hung with the Nits on raw physicality before finally stopping a clearly not-right Sean Clifford when they had to. College football fans have had great fun taking the mickey at Bielema’s expense since his Arkansas days, but we musn’t forget the man knows how to win in the Big Ten.
Greg Schiano knows how to win at Rutgers but the victories have been rather hard to come by this year. The DORKS are sitting at 3-4 with games remaining against Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Penn State, and Maryland. Three losses equals no bowl game. But all those teams are beatable.
Illinois is in a bit more desperate situation, 3-5 with games against Rutgers, Minnesota, Iowa, and Northwestern. Two losses will do them in. So this is absolutely a must for the Illini to keep their bowl hopes alive, even though no one seriously expected them to make a bowl this season.
I have been an Illinois semi-believer all season, so I’m going to take them here, knowing I might look the fool come Sunday morning.
The New Power I 27, The Mini Saints Of Newark 20.
INDIANA AT MARYLAND (11 AM CDT, BTN)
Indiana is going nowhere. So is Maryland. But Maryland has at least managed a few good offensive performances this season.
“But wait!” comes the objection. “They’ve all been against terrible teams!”
So what do you think Indiana is this season? Maryland wins here, easily.
College Park 41, Parked College 17.
#9 MICHIGAN AT #8 MICHIGAN STATE (11 AM CDT, FOX)
Now we’re getting somewhere. This is a simply huge matchup that should help shake out the East division. All season long I have felt like Michigan was vulnerable just due to its lack of balance on offense. That situation is improving for Harbaugh’s squad, but it is also fair to say that the Wolverines really didn’t play anyone in their first seven games.
Then again, given that Real Miami has once again failed to return to glory, you could say the same thing about Sparty as well.
Something has to give here. It may be the case that neither of these teams is as good as advertised. It may be that they both actually are Top Ten teams in the nation. It could be that one of them is good and one isn’t. I don’t know, and neither do you, and neither does anyone. But I really like the way Sparty is playing ball this season, and the game’s in East Lansing, so I’ll take MSU in what promises to be a great game.
(Just me saying that guarantees it'll be an unwatchable mess. I can blight a game, buddy.)
Walker? Hardly Know Her! 31, Harb For Me To Say I’m Sorry 20.
MINNESOTA AT NORTHWESTERN (2:30 CDT, BTN)
You can get in to this game for $4, which is about what it costs to put air in your tires in Evanston.
The nation has mostly ignored the Gophers, which is an appropriate response to any Big Ten team that loses to Bowling Green. Yet they are not terrible, even without Mo Ibrahim. Indeed, they’re tied with Iowa for the lead in the West and certainly in the running for one of the Florida bowls, with a little luck and a clear top dog emerging from the East dogpile.
Northwestern really needs this game to salvage its woebegone season, though, with the only certain win on its remaining schedule being Iowa. The problem is that there’s nothing the Wildcats do all that well, while the Gophers have fairly consistently put up thirtyish points per game. It’s not hard to go with Fleck’s crew, but this game should be dang near unwatchable.
Gilded Rodents 34, Toothless Felines That Will Still Beat Iowa 12.
PURDUE AT NEBRASKA (2:30 PM CDT, ESPN2)
If people are ignoring Minnesota’s competence, they’re really falling asleep on Nebraska’s improvement, both season over season and week over week. If this keeps up Scott Frost might actually keep his job into next year, with the West division looking like it’s somewhat in flux and more up-for-grabs than it used to be.
And we are discovering that the main reason Purdue has won four of its last five against Iowa is because Iowa refuses to make the necessary adjustments to counter Purdue’s crafty passing attack, something Wisconsin did easily last week. Take away one wideout who can beat any linebacker or safety in single coverage, and Purdue is a totally average football team.
Yet the one thing Nebraska has not done yet is conquer its propensity to make boneheaded mistakes at the worst possible time. The Huskers had a week to watch how the Boilermakers beat Iowa, and another week to watch how the Badgers beat the Boilermakers. You can expect something like Wisconsin’s gameplan, only with a more competent quarterback. And a similar result, the team in red on top.
Frost Is Killing It 38, Regression To The Mean 17.
#20 PENN STATE AT #5 OHIO STATE (6:30 PM CDT, ABC)
James Franklin clearly thought that 50% of Sean Clifford gave him a better shot at winning than 100% of anyone else on the roster. Either that or he thought Illinois would be an easy out and a great chance for Clifford to ease his way back into playing. Didn’t work out so well, did it?
Meanwhile, after the early loss to Oregon, I regret to inform you that Ohio State is Ohio State once more, it’s going to win the East and the championship game, and it will be in the College Football Playoff. You will know them by their trail of dead, which will include Penn State. Easily.
Same As It Ever Was 48, This Is Not My Beautiful House 10.
And lastly …
#9 IOWA AT WISCONSIN (11 AM CDT, ESPN)
I am trying to think of the last time a Top Ten team was an underdog, even on the road, to an unranked team. I don’t follow the odds very closely so it’s possible that happened as recently as last week.
You know why. No one believed in Iowa before the Purdue game, and no one really believes in Iowa after it, for offense-related reasons. Iowa has struggled tremendously in the run game all season (except against Maryland) while the Badgers have the nation’s best run defense and a nearly-as-stout pass defense. The Hawks are going to have to throw the ball against a defense that will be expecting them to throw the ball.
Yet for all the talk about Iowa’s offense, the key to this game will be Iowa’s run defense. If Iowa’s D can neutralize a not-quite-as-good-as-usual Wisconsin ground attack, there will be the mistake-prone Graham Mertz (3 TDs, 9 INTs this season) trying to pick up the slack. That can quickly equalize the game, even without Riley Moss for this game.
However.
I had this one penciled in as a loss for Iowa before the season, and I’m sticking to my guns. I think it’s all sunshine from here forward for the Hawks, but this will be the game that returns them to about the No. 18 ranking they started with. I don’t like saying that, but Iowa without a run game is just too hard to be bullish about when the opponent can easily take the pass away too..
Mad-ison About Iowa 13, We Mean No Offense 10.
Last week: 2-3 (.400)
Season: 43-18 (.705)
