BRACKETWATCH: The Waiting Is the Hardest Part

The regular season has come to an end, and Iowa is in a remarkably steady position: Probably a 2 seed at worst, with an extremely outside shot at a top spot with a great showing in the Big Ten Tournament.  The bracket presents the Hawkeyes with some opportunities at score-settling.  Presuming things play out according to seed, the Hawks could see Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan in three consecutive nights this weekend.  That's three top-tier games, the latter two against presumed top seeds.  Win them all (and the tournament title of the nation's toughest conference in the process), and you could make a reasonable case for Iowa in the spot currently held by the Illini.

That could be significant, because Iowa's course through the NCAAs as a 1 seed looks far different than that as a 2.  The NCAA's bracketing rules dictate that the top seeds are to be placed in their respective regions, with the remaining seeds largely following the "S-curve"; the best 2 seed paired with the worst 1 seed, the second-best 2 with the third 1, etc.  The advent of pod locations for the first weekend have eliminated any geographic consideration for anyone beyond the top seed; with this year's tournament wholly in Indianapolis, even the top seeds don't matter. 

However, there is one absolute, must-not-break rule in bracketing: Each of the top four teams selected from a conference must be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines (the top sixteen seeds).  We most recently saw this in the 2019 tournament, where the ACC got three top seeds.  The fourth-ranked ACC team, Florida State, was a four seed, and was therefore forced into the only region not topped by a conference mate.

The top four Big Ten teams this season are established, and all will be in the top sixteen seeded teams (they'll all be in the top seven, most likely):  Michigan, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio State, arguably in that order.  As it stands, Michigan and Illinois are likely getting top seeds; if Illinois doesn't get a one seed, it's the best two-line team, and would be opposite Alabama regardless of which is a one-seed.  That leaves Iowa and Ohio State as established two-seeds, with two regions where they can go: Gonzaga and Baylor.  If Iowa is ahead of the Buckeyes -- and I think they are -- that likely means Iowa goes to Baylor's bracket, regardless of whether the Hawkeyes end up as the top-rated two-seed or the third-rated two-seed. 

In other words, barring a deep Big Ten run by Iowa (or Ohio State, I suppose), we mostly know where the Hawks will be on Sunday.

ESPN (Joe Lunardi) (update 3/7 late night):  2 seed, Region 2, vs. Grand Canyon

Lunardi started February with Iowa as a 2 seed against Grand Canyon.  That's where he has them again as the regular season comes to an end.  Frankly, I want nothing to do with the rest of the bracket Lunardi has posted: San Diego State, which hasn't lost a game since January 16, as a likely opponent in the second round, with Villanova, Oklahoma or Georgia Tech potentially in the Sweet 16.  Yikes.

CBS (Jerry Palm) (update 3/8 morning):  2 seed, Region 1, vs. Georgia State

I'm not sure what Palm is doing with this: His S-curve has Iowa as the seventh overall seed, with Ohio State eighth, yet he continues to put the Hawkeyes in Gonzaga's bracket and OSU in Baylor's.  Of course, Jerry Palm is a Purdue guy, so this might just be disrespect born out of hatred for the Boilermakers' most natural, intense and longest-lasting rival.

Speaking of hatred, an Iowa-Georgia State matchup would have an interesting-but-maybe-only-to-me storyline: The Panthers are coached by Rob Lanier.  Rob took over at Georgia State just last year; he'd been a major-program assistant for the 15 years prior.  But Lanier's last head coaching gig before Georgia State was at Siena, where he went 6-24 in his fourth season, was fired, and got replaced by...Fran McCaffery.

SB Nation (Chris Dobbertean) (update 3/8 morning):  2 seed, Region 2, vs. Morehead State

Speaking of awesome first-round matchups: Luka Garza against Morehead freshman center Johni Broome has the capacity to go nuclear.  Broome has scored in double digits in 17 of Morehead's last 18 games, averaging 16.3 ppg over that stretch.  Morehead is 17-1 during that run, too. 

Of course, Broome also scored all of three points in a 33-point loss to Ohio State on December 2, so maybe not.

Fox Sports (Mike Decourcy) (update 3/5 noon): 2 seed, Region 2, vs. Northeastern

The Colonial tournament is in progress, but top seed James Madison is already out, so the 10-8 Northeastern Huskies are the favorite to make the field now.  This would be a bloodbath: Northeastern's center is undersized, he only plays about 16 minutes per game, he's scored 59 points all season, and his backups are essentially small forwards.  Luka might double the Iowa career scoring record on this game alone.

The Bracket Matrix: 2 seed, Region 3

This is all relative, because Michigan and Illinois are considered the third and fourth one-seeds, so Iowa would go to Baylor's region (see above).  But we've reached the point where the only bracket not listing Iowa as a two-seed is the same Clownshoes who makes Iowa a 6, Illinois a 3, Purdue (a projected 4 seed) as a 7, and Clemson, Missouri and BYU as twos.  He doesn't even have Wisconsin in the field.  

NCAA NET rankings: No. 6

No change in the NET, at least at the top.  Colgate is up to no. 8, and Loyola jumped into the top ten with a win in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final against Drake.

GAMES OF NOTE:

None.  The conference tournaments are fun for the next few days, but there's nothing left to change Iowa's position beyond the Big Ten tournament and, very tangentially, the SEC Tournament.  If Alabama was to go down early, it would take out one potential hurdle to a B1G Tournament champion Iowa as a one seed.  If Alabama was to win it and Illinois or Michigan lose early, the Tide could potentially grab a one of its own, and Iowa off a deep run might get into their bracket.  But both require an Iowa tournament run, and there's not much of consequence outside that.