Wisconsin 78, Iowa 75 (OT): Almost

By RossWB on December 11, 2022 at 10:00 pm @rosswb
go hawks go
© Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
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Iowa and Wisconsin spent the first five minutes of Sunday night's game barely able to make a shot; they spent the final five minutes of the game (in overtime) barely able to miss a shot -- especially the Badgers. In-between those two extremes, both teams went on short scoring runs, especially in the second half, when they traded the lead back and forth several times. Unfortunately, the Badgers made a few more shots than Iowa in the extra session and came away with a 78-75 victory. 

This game didn't look like a potential almost got 'im -- let alone a win -- when it tipped off. At tip, Iowa looked like a team playing its third game in six nights, and doing so without two regular starters (Kris Murray, out with a foot injury, and Ahron Ulis, sidelined with a hip bruise). Iowa looked flat after emotional, high energy games against Duke and Iowa State earlier in the week and shots weren't falling. The Hawkeyes missed their first six shots; the only thing saving them from being on the wrong end of a 15-0 start like they had against Iowa State the other night is that Wisconsin wasn't shooting the ball much better -- they led just 6-0 five minutes into the game. Iowa's first bucket came on a Connor McCaffery three-pointer and they clawed their way back into the game over the course of the half. A Patrick McCaffery layup gave Iowa its first lead of the game, 27-25, before Wisconsin answered before half. 

Iowa ran off a 10-0 run early in the second half to take a 37-31 lead and they maintained a lead for the first 10 minutes of the second half. But they were unable to grow the lead beyond six points -- every time they would get ahead a bit, Wisconsin would go on a mini-run to reel the Hawkeyes back in. The offense really clanged to a halt for Iowa with 10:34 to go in the game and holding a 48-42 lead. Iowa made two field goals (and scored six points total) over the next nine minutes. Remarkably, Wisconsin wasn't able to put the game away in that stretch because the Badgers' offense could only do enough to get a small lead, not blow the game open. Still, an 8-point Wisconsin lead with two minutes to play looked ominous -- until Iowa engineered one final run, with some truly improbable twists. Iowa held Wisconsin scoreless for the final two minutes and got 8 points in the final minute -- a jumper and and-one with 54 seconds to go, a layup by Tony Perkins with 21 seconds to go (on a critical possession that was kept alive by two Iowa offensive rebounds), a steal on the subsequent inbounds play, and a Patrick McCaffery three with 15 seconds remaining tie the game. That was just a stunning turnaround. 

Overtime started well for Iowa too -- Patrick converted a tough layup in traffic and made an and-one, then got two free throws on Iowa's next possession, followed by a Connor layup on the possession after that. But Wisconsin answered each Iowa bucket with a bucket of their own. Iowa was unable to get separation from Wisconsin and unable to build a lead. Eventually Iowa stopped making shots (and started turning the ball over) while Wisconsin kept making shots (or free throws). Back-to-back turnovers Patrick McCaffery and Tony Perkins with under a minute to play in overtime were brutal and too much to overcome. Patrick McCaffery did get a decent look at a three-pointer to tie the game as time expired in overtime, but it rattled out. 

Offensively, this game was very much the McCaffery show. Patrick McCaffery had a career-high 24 points on 8/16 shooting, including 3/8 from long range. His three-pointer with 15 seconds to go to tie the game was probably the biggest shot he's made in his Iowa career, though it probably won't be remembered as such since Iowa went on to lose the game. Connor McCaffery chipped in 17 points on 6/14 shooting (2/8 from deep), along with 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals. It wasn't all sunshine and roses -- Connor had an uncharacteristic three turnovers and a few defensive breakdowns -- but Iowa doesn't remotely have a chance to win this game without the McCafferys balling out the way they did tonight. With Murray out, Iowa has needed other players to step up and carry the load -- Filip Rebraca did a great job of that against Iowa State on Thursday night and the McCafferys did the same here. (Rebraca 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assists tonight, so he was far from bad, although his effectiveness seemed slightly diluted by the Badgers and their oafish front line.) Iowa also got 17 points from Tony Perkins on 7/15 shooting, plus 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. 

Perkins also had four turnovers, which was part of a game-long problem for the Hawkeyes. They were simply far too careless with the ball, coughing up 15 turnovers in the game. Those giveaways killed too many Iowa possessions (especially late in the game/overtime) and also led to 13 Wisconsin points. That many turnovers, plus subpar shooting (42% overall and just 26% from 3-point range) was a bit too much to overcome in this game. 

Fran got a bit frisky with the lineups in this game, especially in the first half when the offense seemed to be stuck in sludge and in desperate need of a sparkplug. Josh Dix and Carter Kingsbury both got extended run; Kingsbury even drained a three-pointer, which was great to see (and an exceptionally powerful bolt of nostalgia). Was this a one-game thing or might we see more minutes for them going forward? The next two games -- home contests against Southeast Missouri State (5-5) and Eastern Illinois (2-9) -- could offer opportunities for experimentation. They might also be one last shot to try and get Payton Sandfort unstuck before Big Ten play starts in earnest; he was 0/7 tonight and just can't buy a shot right now. 

Given the key injuries that have hit this Iowa team and the compressed nature of the schedule over this past week, a loss here is certainly understandable. But losing this game is also going to sting for a while -- because this was a very, very winnable game for Iowa, at home, against a Wisconsin team that looks decent but far from great. With a stronger finish, Iowa could have gotten a win here and wrapped up the week with wins over Iowa State and Wisconsin and headed into the finals week break on a high. The good news is that Iowa has a light schedule coming up -- just two games (home games versus Southeast Missouri State and Eastern Illinois on 12/17 and 12/21, respectively) in the next 18 days, until Big Ten play resumes with a trip to Nebraska on December 29. Hopefully Iowa can use that time get healthy, get rested, and get ready for the grind of the Big Ten. 

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