WHO: Maryland Terrapins (4-0)
WHEN: 7:00 PM CT (Friday, October 1)
WHERE: Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium (College Park, MD)
TV: FS1 (Tim Brando & Spencer Tillman)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (TuneIn, or local listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 195
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: clear, temps in the 50s, no wind
LINE: Iowa -3.5 (TOTAL: 47.5)
NOTE: Don't forget to follow all the action during the game and chat with your fellow Iowa fans in the Go Iowa Awesome discord! (More info here.)
Iowa got a taste of conference play early this season, opening the year with a game against Indiana. They played three consecutive non-conference games after that, but now it's time to return to conference action in full. That return to Big Ten action begins with a Friday night tilt with Maryland in College Park.
Both Iowa and Maryland enter this game at 4-0, marks that few preseason observers would have expected them to have a month into the season. The Terps have played a slightly easier schedule so far -- their season opener against West Virginia was a good win over a solid opponent, but their remaining three wins have been against Howard, Illinois, and Kent State.
Maryland is riding high at 4-0 thanks to their offense, which means this game will pit strength (Terp offense) vs strength (Hawkeye defense). Maryland's offense ranks 24th in SP+, 13th in yards per game (519.3), and 23rd in yards per play (6.9). They've had an average running attack (166 ypg (62nd), 4.49 ypc (56th)), but been absolutely explosive through the air: 353.3 ypg (8th), 9.3 ypa (23rd), QB rating of 176.97 (12th). The Terps have been all about racking up yards in large chunks and big plays as well -- they're 10th nationally in 20+ yard plays (27). (Although, strange but true: Iowa and Maryland each have five plays of 40+ yards on offense.)
The main source of offense for Maryland has been star QB Taulia Tagovailoa. The Alabama transfer has been lighting up defenses so far this year: 335 ypg (8th), 173.2 QB rating (13th), 75.5% completion percentage (3rd), 9.1 ypa (23rd), and a 10/1 TD/INT ratio. He's going to be a great test for this Iowa defense -- although, conversely, the Iowa defense will also be a great test for him. The best pass defense he's faced this year was West Virginia -- and he still lit them up for 332 yards and 3 TD (0 INT) on 72% completion. Through four games, Iowa is allowing 187 yards per game, a QB rating of 101.3, a completion percentage of 54%, and three touchdowns against six interceptions.
Tagovailoa's main target has been Dontay Demus, Jr. (6-4, 215 lbs), who leads the team with 24 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns. But two other receivers, Rakim Jarrett (6-0, 190 lbs) and Jeshaun Jones (6-2, 185 lbs), have over 15+ receptions and 200+ receiving yards apiece, and in total five different players have at least 12 catches and over 100 receiving yards on the season. (Iowa has... one player with over 12 receptions and just two with more than 100 receiving yards.) That range of attacking options at receiver will put stress on Iowa's secondary.
Tayon Fleet-Davis (6-0, 215 lbs) has been a strong option in the ground game for Maryland, as well. Through four games, he's amassed 311 yards and four touchdowns on 77 carries (7.1 ypc). Iowa's done well at keeping talented backs in check this year, and they'll need to do the same to Fleet-Davis in order to make the Maryland offense as one-dimensional as possible. (Though that one dimension is still very good.)
Another key battle? The Maryland offensive line versus Iowa's defensive line. Maryland has allowed just six sacks this year, tied for 35th in the nation. Iowa has racked up 13 sacks on the season, good for 17th best. West Virginia got just one sack against the Terps, but Illinois had three, which helped them keep that game close. The Iowa pass rush has dented some good offensive lines this year (Iowa State has allowed only five sacks this season, but two came against Iowa and there was a lot of additional pressure from Iowa's defense that didn't result in an official sack).
But even factoring all that into account, unless Iowa's defense plays the game of its life and absolutely smothers the Terps or forces a slew of (so-far uncharacteristic) turnovers, Maryland's offense is going to get something. So the real test in this game may be the battle of weakness (Iowa offense) vs weakness (Maryland defense). Except the Maryland defense hasn't been that weak -- they're 30th in the defensive SP+, 8th in scoring defense (14.3 ppg), 44th in total defense (324.3 ypg), and 46th in yards per play (4.9). They've allowed just 111.8 yards per game on the ground (38th) and 3.36 yards per rush (42nd). Through the air they've conceded only 212.5 ypg (59th), 50% completion percentage (6th), 6.5 yards per attempt (47th), and only two touchdowns against four interceptions. I don't think you need me to recount how bad Iowa's offense has been this season. Suffice to say when you rank in the triple digits in several categories, it makes for pretty grim viewing. Can they find a way to be effective on the road against a defense that has so far been solid at worst?
The path to victory in this game for Iowa is the same one that's been true in most of their games this year (but especially the Iowa State and Indiana games): force turnovers, win the field position battle, dominate the special teams portion of the game, and be opportunistic on offense. We saw glimpses of big play potential from the Iowa offense last week -- we'll probably need to see even more of that this week. Turnovers (both the avoidance of on offense and the forcing of on defense) will be crucial for Iowa as well and we're going to need some big plays from Tory Taylor, Terry Roberts (gunner extraordinaire), and Charlie Jones in special teams as well.
So... does that happen? I was nervous about this game in the summer when it got moved to a Friday night time slot, creating a cross-country road game on a short week of preparation for Iowa. And that was before the Terps turned out to be solid on both sides of the ball and Tagovailoa was a star in the making. So I'm very nervous of this game now. Can Iowa win the game? Of course. But I'm concerned because it seems to require a lot of different things going right. I think Iowa's physicality will make things difficult for the Terps -- the two most physical teams they've played this year were West Virginia and Illinois and Maryland beat them by a combined nine points -- but I'm not sure that will be enough. Iowa's anemic offense hasn't been an impediment to victory yet this year, but I think that weakness is too much to overcome tonight.
MARYLAND 24, IOWA 20
