What is Dispatches from Blogfrica? Pretty simple: I ask questions of a blogger for an opposing team; he (or she) answers. A truly revolutionary idea, no? Today: Travis from Hammer & Rails, SB Nation's fine blog for all things Purdue.
1) Jeff Brohm has had Iowa's number since he got to Purdue. What's been the secret to his success against the Hawkeyes?
TRAVIS: I think it is a combination of him going against Ferentz’s conservative nature, individual receivers (Anthony Mahoungou, Terry Wright, David Bell x2) having career days, and finding ways to exploit weaknesses. I know last year there was a certain amount of frustration later in the year because Purdue played so well against a good Iowa team and so poorly against Rutgers and Nebraska.
Brohm’s desire to get aggressive those first two years was a big difference. Last year Jeff Brohm was out with COVID, but Brian Brohm filled in and called a great game. Purdue had great offensive balance, was able to run a bit, and did just enough on defense to get the win. Purdue’s two interceptions were offset by two very timely fumbles and David Bell was Bell. Purdue is going to have to play a similar game to win this year.
2) Purdue seems to have a new QB every time they play Iowa -- what's going on with the QB position this year? What should Iowa fans know about the signal caller(s) for this Boilermaker team?
TRAVIS: I have no idea, and Brohm just needs to pick a guy. In 2017 it was Elijah Sindelar out of necessity since David Blough was hurt. The next year Blough took the reigns early and actually held the job all year. He is at least an NFL quarterback (by whatever standards the Detroit Lions are NFL-caliber) and performed well. Jack Plummer was the guy in 2019 due to an injury to Sindelar (who had the worst injury luck of any Purdue QB ever, and that is saying something) and had moments. Last year Aidan O’Connell won the starting job out of camp after finishing as the 2019 starter due to an injury to Plummer.
This year it has been O’Connell vs. Plummer. Plummer won the job in camp and looked good the first two games, but the offense stalled against Notre Dame and Illinois, so O’Connell came in. He threw two picks while pressing at the end of the Notre Dame game, then two more against Illinois before organizing the game-winning drive. He got the start vs. Minnesota and had a mixed bag of results, throwing for 371 yards and a TD, but again, Purdue couldn’t finish drives. He also had two backbreaking turnovers, including a pick on the final drive as Purdue was close to tying it.
Plummer has yet to turn the ball over, but he doesn’t provide the deep threat Brohm is looking for. O’Connell throws a better deep ball, but is a riskier QB with five interceptions thrown. Both have positives. One of the amazing things about O’Connell is that he has just seven starts, plus three more games where he came in in the fourth quarter for various reasons, and he has led four game-winning drives, plus a fifth that tied the 2019 Indiana game and sent it to overtime. He’s like a baseball closer.
I suspect O’Connell will start Saturday, but it could also be Plummer. I just hope Brohm picks a guy and stays with him. You may also see Austin Burton, who added a wrinkle as more of a running option against Minnesota in a pseudo-wildcat. He went 5/5 in mop-up time vs. UConn, but the Minnesota game was the first time he played in competitive action. He is far more mobile than the other two, and has some specific packages designed for him.
3) Why is David Bell so damn good? Has anyone had success slowing him down this year?
TRAVIS: Well, Notre Dame knocking him senseless, causing him to miss the Illinois game is a measure of stopping him, I guess. He was held to 64 yards in that game, but still had 134 against Minnesota in his comeback game. Him playing against UConn was just unfair. At one point we tossed him a goal line fade in double coverage just to see if he could get it, and he almost did (scoring a play later).
He has been over 100 yards in 10 of his last 14 games dating back to 2019 with 14 touchdowns. He is such a smooth, polished receiver, too. He runs routes extremely well, can make catches in traffic, he reads blocks, and always seems to gain separation. He’s a joy to watch. If he stayed for next season he would shatter every Purdue receiving record possible, but we all know he is off to the NFL.
4) Purdue is third in the Big Ten in scoring defense, fourth in yards per play allowed, and they have the stingiest pass defense in the league -- what is working so well for them on that side of the ball?
TRAVIS: It has been a very pleasant surprise combined with playing some very poor passing offenses. Minnesota is 124th nationally in passing, Illinois 122nd, UConn 121st, Oregon State 96th. The run defense numbers don’t look great, but they are SIGNIFICANTLY better than the past two years, especially when teams have been very run heavy against us. Simply put, the defense has done its job and played well enough to win. George Karlaftis is getting pressure even with teams holding the hell out of him, the run defense is not allowing big plays, and really Minnesota and Notre Dame each hitting on a few deep passes is the difference.
The offense just is not finishing drives. It was very poor against Minnesota, scoring 13 points on eight trips inside Minnesota territory. It had Notre Dame to a 4-point game in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t finish drives.
If I had one caveat it is that we’re not getting any turnovers to provide a shorter field for the offense. We have had two turnovers all season, and the last one was an interception by a 4th string walk-on in the fourth quarter with a 49-0 lead at UConn. That is one turnover in the four competitive games, and even that was back against Oregon State. We're 0/6 on recovering fumbles too. We have to be due for a few, right?
5) Outside of Bell, name two Purdue players (offense or defense) that Iowa fans should be concerned about on Saturday.
TRAVIS: TJ Sheffield has been pretty decent as a slot receiver for us and had the game-winning score against Illinois. He was open the play before the game-sealing interception against Minnesota and probably would have scored if O’Connell could hit him. I also like Payne Durham, who has been very good at TE. He started the year extremely well, but was concussed early against Illinois and missed the Minnesota game. He should be back this week. He will be critical on those underneath routes to move the chains.
On defense I have been impressed with Marvin Grant. He has been a great asset coming up in run support and a solid tackler, stopping a lot of runs from becoming 20 and 30-yard gains. Cam Allen has also been good.
6) OK, prediction time -- who ya got?
TRAVIS: I am not as pessimistic as many Purdue fans. I think we really have a shot here because of Bell and Brohm’s history against Iowa. I like coming off of a bye week after you guys were in such a huge game last week. I like the idea that Brohm has been scheming for two weeks and hopefully he goes back to the swashbuckling Brohm of 2017 and 2018 instead of the more conservative version we have seen the last two years. We saw a little bit of it against Oregon State to great success.
I can see this being another low scoring 24-20 type of game. The key is for Purdue to limit turnovers. You guys are picking everything off in sight and Purdue is simply not causing them. You guys will probably win, but Purdue needs to continue being stout defensively, avoid turning the ball over, and hope Bell continues his mastery of Iowa. Do all that and I think we can top you in a similar manner to last year. If we start turning the ball over though, it is going to be a long day. We’re going to have to play significantly better than the last two games, but I think we at least have a chance.
Thanks for being a good sport, Travis, but I still hope your team gets mollywhopped on Saturday. You can check out Travis and the rest of the H&R crew at Hammer & Rails. You can also follow H&R on Twitter at @HammerAndRails. The Iowa-Purdue game is in Iowa City, IA on Saturday, October 16, and is scheduled to start at approximately 2:30 pm CT, with TV coverage from ABC.
