WHO: Rutgers (3-0)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Saturday, September 24)
WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA) SHI Stadium (Piscataway, NJ)
TV: FS1
ANNOUNCERS: Noah Eagle and Mark Helfrich
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (TuneIn, or local listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 383 (app 973)
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: clear, temps in the 60s
LINE: Iowa -8 (Total: 34.0)
NOTE: Don't forget to follow all the action during the game and chat with your fellow Iowa fans in the Go Iowa Awesome discord! (More info here.)
What are we watching for? Well, obviously, we're watching for the sweet, sweet punting -- and to see a potentially historic total. Beyond that, I'm not sure how much is left to be said. As we've discussed, this game should pit two defenses that are very good-to-great against two offenses that are very poor. Rutgers has better offensive stats than Iowa (mainly in the running game), but all of those numbers are significantly influenced by a massive thumping they put on Wagner, a bad FCS team. Outside of that game, the Rutgers offense has not been particularly effective.
Rutgers beat a not-very-good Boston College team by a point in their opener in a game that was statistically about as dead-even as the scoreboard reflects. The Scarlet Knights were out-gained by Temple last week, but managed to grind out a 16-14 win by virtue of three field goals and a defensive touchdown (pick-six). They're stealing our gimmick!
There are some weird streaks entering this game as well -- like the fact that Rutgers hasn't won a Big Ten home game since the same day that Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24. No, seriously: Rutgers has not won a Big Ten home game since November 4, 2017, when they beat Maryland 31-24. That's a string of 20 consecutive Big Ten losses for Rutgers. Greg Schiano has won five Big Ten games in his first two seasons back at Rutgers, but all five wins came on the road (at Michigan State, at Purdue, at Maryland, at Illinois, and at Indiana). That home losing streak is going to end eventually -- but hopefully not against Iowa on Saturday night.
It does feel like a fast start would do Iowa a world of good in this game, though. Rutgers is 3-0 and this is a night game, so the fans are going to be hyped up. The more Iowa can do to take them out of the game with early scores or forcing turnovers (or both!) would be very helpful. The last thing the wheezing Iowa offense needs to deal with is a hostile road environment on top of all of its self-inflicted problems.
That said, Spencer Petras has also weirdly been a much more effective quarterback in road games than home games over the course of his career. He's averaging a 58.5% completion rate and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8-to-1 on the road, while he has a 54.9% completion rate and a 12-to-15 TD:INT ratio in home and neutral-site games. Spencer Petras: road warrior? Apparently! There's no doubt that home games have become an incredibly tense and fraught environment for the Iowa offense this year, and for Petras more than anyone else. If nothing else, getting away from that pressure cooker is unlikely to hurt Petras' performance in any way.
PREDICTION
That fast start idea? It could benefit Rutgers just as much as Iowa. If they can get an early score themselves and force Iowa into some mistakes, they'll have a lead, plenty of confidence, and a fired-up crowd making life miserable for an Iowa offense that often seems one or two mistakes away from total meltdown this season. So this game could easily turn into a New Jersey nightmare for Iowa. But that is not my official prediction. I think the defense keeps Rutgers in check and forces a few turnovers, while I think the offense enjoys a game away from Iowa City and Petras is able to connect with local (ish) boy Nico Ragaini for a few big pass plays. Oh, and there will still be plenty of sublime punting by both teams.
IOWA 20, RUTGERS 10
