WHO: #2 Ohio State (6-0)
WHEN: 11:05 AM CT (Saturday, October 22)
WHERE: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)
TV: FOX
ANNOUNCERS: Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt, and Jenny Taft
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (TuneIn, or local listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 98 or 196 (app 958)
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: raining blood
LINE: Ohio State -30.0 (Total: 50.0)
NOTE: Don't forget to follow all the action during the game and chat with your fellow Iowa fans in the Go Iowa Awesome discord! (More info here.)
What can we really say about this game? All the jokes about the Iowa offense have been made. Marvin Harrison, Jr. (9) and Miyan Williams (8) each have more offensive touchdowns than Iowa's entire offense has (7). Ohio State is #1 in scoring offense; Iowa is #127. Ohio State is #2 in total offense; Iowa is #131. And so on. By just about any metric you choose to look at this, this is one of the most lopsided offensive matchups in recent memory. Iowa is bringing a broken slingshot to this fight, while Ohio State rolls up with laser-guided missiles.
If you want to cringe at Iowa's offense even more, you could read Scott Dochterman's deep dive into Iowa's red zone offense this week at The Athletic ($), which was scary as any horror novel you'll read during SPOOKY SZN this month:
Spanning the past 14 games, during which the Hawkeyes are 7-7, Iowa quarterbacks have attempted 15 passes from inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. They have seven completions and one touchdown, which took place in the waning seconds of a 27-14 loss to Michigan on a 5-yard route from quarterback Spencer Petras to tight end Luke Lachey. But the head-shaking statistic is that Iowa’s seven completions during that 14-game period have totaled 3 yards.
It sounds almost impossible, yet it’s completely true. In six games this year, Iowa is 4-of-5 passing from inside the 10 for 5 yards. Along with Lachey’s touchdown catch, the other completions included a shovel pass that lost 1 yard against Illinois and a pair of short flat routes against Michigan that totaled 1 yard.
This year’s numbers align with the final eight games from 2021. From inside the 10-yard line, there were three completions for minus-2 yards. A slant route gained 4 yards, an out picked up 1 yard and an outlet to a running back lost 7.
I told you it was grisly stuff. Of course, that presumes Iowa's offense makes it to the red zone. That hasn't happened very often this season and it's hard to see why that would change much this week against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have only allowed 11 red zone trips in six games this year (slightly fewer than two per game), which is tied for the second-fewest trips allowed in the nation. (Opponents have scored on 10 of those trips, so teams are getting points when they get in the red zone against Ohio State... those opportunities are just few and far between.)
The main question for this game is really: how much can Iowa's defense withstand? Iowa has a very good defense this season, allowing only 9.8 ppg (3rd best, nationally) -- but it also hasn't faced an offense with the explosiveness and ability to stretch the field (horizontally as well as vertically) like the Ohio State offense. Even in optimum conditions, this would be an immense test of the defense's abilities. And they're probably not going to see optimum conditions -- not on the road and not with this offense. The best-case scenario for Iowa's defense is to prevent big plays -- but if that just means giving up long, time-consuming drives that still end in OSU touchdowns, the effect is the same. And over the course of the game, that's going to wear down the defense, likely giving the OSU offense opportunities to hit on those big plays.
Can the Iowa offense possess the ball long enough -- and, ideally, move the ball into scoring positions and convert those opportunities (but let's not get too crazy here) -- to give the defense a break? Probably not, based on the offense we've seen through the first six games of the season. A steady stream of three-and-outs by Iowa's offense is going to lead to breakage from the defense, no matter how good they are (or how far Tory Taylor can punt the ball).
PREDICTION
Pain. Pain, pain, and probably a little more pain, too. Barring an absolute miracle from the Iowa offense (or a preposterously high-scoring day for the Iowa defense), it's hard to see an outcome beyond "Iowa loses badly." The question is just how badly the final margin ends up. Can Iowa cover a 30-point spread? You'd like to think so -- even losing by "only" four touchdowns would just be 28 points, and that would be enough to cover! But keeping it even that "close" could be a step too far with this Iowa offense. I think -- hope? -- that Iowa can avoid a shutout (if nothing else there ought to be a lot of garbage time in this game) in the game... but that's about as far as my optimism goes.
OHIO STATE 45, IOWA 7
