WHO: Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-8, 2-6 Big Ten)
WHEN: 3:01 PM CT (Friday, November 25)
WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
ANNOUNCERS: Brandon Gaudin, Jake Butt, and Rick Pizo
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (TuneIn, or local listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 138 or 195 (app 957)
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: temps in the low 50s, mostly clear
LINE: EVEN Iowa -10.5 (Total: 38.5)
NOTE: Don't forget to follow all the action during the game and chat with your fellow Iowa fans in the Go Iowa Awesome discord! (More info here.)
Only one thing stands between Iowa and a second-straight trip to the Big Ten Championship Game: the Nebraska Cornhuskers. The Huskers are, as usual, not very good this season. They're just 3-8 overall and 2-6 in Big Ten play. They gave Northwestern their only win of the season. Their only Big Ten wins this came against Indiana (another contender for worst team in the Big Ten) and Rutgers.
And yet... Nebraska did suffer one-score defeats to Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. (Even without Scott Frost, their close game karma has remained poor.) The Huskers should have starting quarterback Casey Thompson back under center after he missed a few weeks (he was 12/20 for 106 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT versus Wisconsin last week). They also have the benefit of playing with nothing to lose and an opportunity to spoil Iowa's season.
What does Iowa need to do to avoid getting spoiled?
Limit big plays. Junior wide receiver Trey Palmer, an LSU transfer, has definitely flashed some explosive potential -- he caught both touchdowns against Wisconsin last week and had monster games against Purdue (7 receptions, 237 yards, 2 TD) and Indiana (8 receptions, 157 yards, 1 TD). Limiting big plays is always a focus for Iowa's defense, and this unit has been particularly good at doing so -- the Hawkeyes have allowed just 22 plays of 20+ yards (best in the nation) and 8 plays of 30+ yards (also tops nationally).
Control the ground game. Iowa and Nebraska haven't been especially competent at running the ball this year, especially in Big Ten play -- Iowa ranks 12th (95.8 ypg), while Nebraska ranks 13th (95.6 ypg). Iowa is also coming off its worst display of defending the run in several years, conceding an eye-popping 312 yards to Minnesota last week. Nebraska doesn't look quite as equipped to gash Iowa's defense the way the Gophers did a week ago, though; there's no Mo Ibrahim-caliber running back in that backfield, nor is the Husker offensive line as big or as talented as Minnesota's line. On the other side, Iowa will get a chance to run against one of the Big Ten's most accommodating run defenses, as Nebraska ranks dead last in the conference overall against the run (195 ypg, 4.6 ypc). Those numbers have been better in league play -- but still not quite good (178 ypg, 10th in the Big Ten; 4.1 ypc, 9th). This is a defensive front that Kaleb Johnson & Co. should be able to run on with some success.
Win the turnover battle. Another area of the game that Iowa regularly tries to win anyway, but one that should favor Iowa in this matchup as well. Iowa is +7 in turnovers this year (20 forced, 13 given away), while Nebraska is -6 in turnover margin (12 forced, 18 given away). In Big Ten games, Iowa's turnover margin is even better (+8), while Nebraska's is unchanged (-6). Over the last four games (all Iowa wins), the Hawkeyes have just one turnover (a lost fumble against Wisconsin) while forcing eight turnovers (including six interceptions). Nebraska has been much cleaner in the turnover department of late (only one lost turnover in the last three games, an interception against Minnesota), but the Huskers also haven't forced many giveaways recently, either (just one takeaway in three games, an interception against Wisconsin last week). Getting Thompson back at quarterback may not be a positive in the turnover department, either -- while he avoided any interceptions against Wisconsin last week, he's had at least one interception in six of the other eight games in which he's played this season -- and he had two interceptions each in four of those six games. In other words, he is a quarterback who will make some errant throws and poor decisions -- which could be very good news for an opportunistic Iowa secondary.
Exploit special teams advantages. Nebraska was consistently terrible at special teams play under Scott Frost, and while it hasn't been quite as bad this season, Iowa should still have some advantages in that area. Nebraska does have a punt return touchdown this season (against Indiana), but the Huskers have also failed to return a punt in 9 of 11 games this year. Iowa has a Big Ten-best 260 punt return yards and consistently looks to gain yards and improve field position through the return game. Cooper DeJean has proven especially skilled at helping Iowa gain yardage in that way since taking over punt return duties a few weeks ago. Nebraska does have a solid punter (Brian Buschini has averaged 44.5 yards per punt, 4th best in the Big Ten) and placekicker (Timmy Bleekrode is 8/10 on field goals this season), but you'd still probably give Iowa the edge in those areas with Tory Taylor and Drew Stevens.
PREDICTION
This is an Iowa team that's very hungry: they want back-to-back Big Ten West championships. These Hawkeyes want a return trip to the Big Ten Championship Game. And they want another opportunity to play either Michigan or Ohio State. Things could have gone very sideways on this season after that three-game losing streak in October; instead Iowa has been able to lock in and grind out four consecutive wins. It's rarely been pretty, thanks to an often-sporadic offense that will need to be a major offseason focus no matter what happens over the remainder of the season, but behind an outstanding defense and an offense that has been able to do just enough, Iowa's found a winning formula that's effective, albeit unconventional. I expect the defense to keep Nebraska relatively buttoned up (especially on the ground, where Iowa's front seven should be eager to atone for last week's poor showing) and to force the Huskers into some mistakes. I think the offense will have more flashes of competence against a softer defense this week, especially in the ground game. And I think there will probably be a special teams play or two that goes Iowa's way as well. Add all that up and what do you get?
IOWA 23, NEBRASKA 13
