With a #4 preseason ranking and a non-conference schedule filled with big opponents, Iowa is hoping to build towards a more successful March. But a key component of Iowa’s resume will be its Big Ten performance.
Last year, Iowa finished the season on a huge run and earned a share of the regular season Big Ten title. The Hawkeyes then won three games in three days to capture the Big Ten Tournament. Will Iowa be able to repeat that success this year?
The first thing to note is that the top six teams in the Big Ten are very good. Each is ranked in the preseason Top 25, and each could compete for a Sweet 16 or better. But after the Top 6, things really fall off.
Charlie Creme only projects those 6 Big Ten teams to make the NCAA Tournament, and no other Big Ten team is in the First or Next 4 out. Maybe one or more of the bottom eight teams will take a step, but for now there is a huge gap between the top and bottom of the conference.
#11 Indiana
The Hoosiers were arguably the second-best team in the conference last year, and return two All-Conference players in Grace Berger and Mackenzie Holmes. They were also active in the transfer portal, adding one of the best shooters in the country in Sarah Scalia, a former 5-star recruit in Sydney Parrish, and a solid forward in Alyssa Geary.
The preseason expectations are for Indiana to be as good or better than last year, but I’m not so sure. The Hoosiers lost three seniors—Ali Patberg, Aleksa Gulbe, and Nicole Cardano-Hillary—who were very important to the team’s success. Cardano-Hillary was the team’s best perimeter defender and guarded Caitlin Clark closely in each of their three matchups. Patberg was in her 7th season, and ran the offense well at point guard. And Gulbe did basically everything well.
I think Indiana’s offense will be better than last year, but its defense will be worse. And the Hoosiers don't have a natural point guard among their top players. I still think Indiana will be one of the best teams in the conference, but I think last year’s team fit together better.
#14 Ohio State
The Buckeyes have arguably the best back court in the country. Jacy Sheldon and Taylor Mikesell are both All-Big Ten players, and they attack the basket and shoot the three as well as anyone. They also see guard Madison Greene return after being out last season with an injury.
Like last year, Ohio State’s biggest questions are at the forward positions and on defense. Ohio State doesn’t have a great post presence, and like Iowa they prefer to outscore teams than to win games on the defensive end.
Aided by a favorable conference schedule, the Buckeyes split the regular season conference championship with Iowa last year. This year, they will look to repeat that and to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding. I think they will be Iowa’s biggest competition in the conference.
#17 Maryland
I expected Maryland to be one of the Top 5 teams in the country last year. Instead, injuries and chemistry issues led them to finish 23-9 and lose in the Sweet Sixteen. That’s a great season for most teams, but not for Maryland and not with the expectations the Terrapins had entering the season.
Things got worse in the offseason, as Angel Reese and Ashley Owusu—two of the most talented players in the country—transferred to other schools. Key role player Mimi Collins also transferred, and Coach Brenda Frese shared details about her transfer that she really shouldn’t have.
But just when it looked like Maryland might take a significant step back, Frese dipped into the transfer portal, adding Abby Meyers, Lavender Briggs, Elisa Pinzan, Allie Kubek, and Brinae Alexander, who all did well at their prior schools.
The Terps also still have Diamond Miller, one of the top players in the conference, and Shyanne Sellers, an athletic sophomore who will likely build on a strong freshman season last year.
So where does that leave Maryland? I’m not entirely sure. Frese is one of the top coaches in the country, but she has also lost a ton of talent to the transfer portal in recent years. Can Frese get a bunch of new pieces to fit together, or will chemistry issues continue to make Maryland underperform?
Of all the top teams, I think Maryland is the most volatile. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Terps challenge for a conference title. I also wouldn’t be totally shocked if they finish the season outside the Top 25.
#22 Nebraska
It pains me to say this, but Nebraska is a really fun team. Like Iowa, they play fast, shoot a ton of threes, and score a lot of points. Jaz Shelley is one of the best guards in the conference, and Alexis Markowski was the conference’s best freshman last year. The Huskers also return many of their best role players.
They finished 24-9 and 11-7 in conference last season. I expect them to be better this year. If they can improve their defense and limit their scoring droughts, they might well compete for a Top 4 spot in the conference.
#25 Michigan
This year’s Michigan team reminds me a lot of Iowa’s 2019-2020 team. As a refresher, the 2019-2020 Iowa team was coming off an Elite Eight appearance, but also lost arguably the best player in school history in Megan Gustafson. It returned many of the key role players from that Elite Eight team, though, and the future in recruiting was bright. The expectations for that Iowa team were low, but it outperformed them, and was on pace for a Top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament before the Tournament was cancelled due to COVID.
Michigan is coming off an Elite Eight appearance, but needs to replace Naz Hillmon, arguably the best player in school history. The Wolverines return a bunch of role players from that Elite Eight team, but their expectations are relatively low—I have seen some predictions that they will be a bubble team this year. The future of the team also looks bright with some key recruiting commitments.
I don’t expect Michigan to be quite as good as the 2019-2020 Iowa team, but I do think they will easily make the NCAA Tournament and be competitive with the top teams in the conference.
Purdue
At the beginning of last season, Purdue looked like it was arguably in the worst position of any team in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers' longtime coach decided to retire early amidst scandal. Most of their top players transferred in the previous off-season. And new coach Katie Gearlds' only previous head coaching experience was at NAIA Marian.
Purdue went 16-14 overall last year and 7-11 in the Big Ten. That was good for a tie for 9th in the conference. This year, the Boilermakers return most of their top players. They might well be the best team outside of the Top 6 and might even compete for an NCAA Tournament bid.
Northwestern
Northwestern plays an aggressive zone defense that focuses on turning teams over. That has given Iowa fits the last two seasons. It also helped the Wildcats make the second round of the NCAA Tournament two years ago. Last year, they were on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but just missed making the tournament.
This year’s Northwestern squad returns four of its top six players, but it loses Veronica Burton, who was drafted #7 overall in the WNBA Draft and played in 36 games for the Dallas Wings.
Now the Wildcats look to return to the NCAA Tournament without their star player. I’m skeptical that they'll be able to accomplish that, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Northwestern pulled a couple upsets throughout the season.
Michigan State
Michigan State is very similar to Northwestern. The Spartans were on the NCAA Tournament bubble for a while last year, before fading down the stretch. The Spartans are a good bet to finish in the middle of the conference, though, as they have finished between 7th and 9th in each of the last five seasons.
There is some optimism that results can improve this year. The Spartans dealt with a number of injuries last year, but return many of their top players. Like Northwestern, though, Michigan State also has to replace its top player. Nia Clouden was one of the best players in the conference last year, but was drafted #12 overall in the WNBA Draft and played in 28 games for the Connecticut Sun.
Like Northwestern, I’m skeptical they will return to the tournament without their best player from last year.
Minnesota
Lindsay Whalen is the Scott Frost of women’s basketball. Former player who led their school to glory and is universally loved by the fanbase? Check. A hire that seemed like a home run when it was announced? Check. A team that wildly underperformed expectations in the coach’s first few seasons? Check. The coach’s future largely dependent on a single class of players? Check again.
Whalen went 60-57 in her first four years at Minnesota, but her conference record was just 28-44. For comparison, Coach Marlene Stallings went 82-47 overall and 38-30 in conference in her four seasons at Minnesota before Whalen took over. Stallings made the NCAA Tournament twice. Whalen hasn’t made one NCAA Tournament appearance. And her results have arguably gotten worse every year.
Last year Iowa beat Minnesota 105-49 in Minneapolis, and it looked like a low point for the program. Then things got worse in the off-season, as most of Minnesota’s top players transferred. There was a brief point in time before the freshman arrived that Minnesota only had a few players on its roster.
So why does Whalen still have a job? Well, aside from how tough it would be to fire the program’s best-ever player, Whalen did just bring in the best recruiting class in program history. Had Minnesota fired her this off-season, it might have risked those players changing their commitments to another school.
Still, Whalen and Minnesota have a lot riding on the next season or two. If the results don’t improve, Whalen will be out of a job, and Minnesota might have a significant rebuild ahead.
Penn State
Last year Penn State had one of the conference’s best scorers in Makenna Marisa, but went 11-18 overall and 5-13 in conference. Marisa is back this year, along with promising sophomore Leiani Kapinus. The Nittany Lions also brought in a few transfers that might help.
Coach Carolyn Kieger is entering her fourth season, though, and she’s 12-43 in conference. If Penn State doesn’t show decent improvement this season, Kieger might be looking for another job.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin went 8-21 overall and 5-13 in Big Ten play last year, and frankly that was a success. The Badgers were the worst team in the Big Ten in 2020-2021, and brought in Coach Marisa Moseley to begin a big rebuild. The Badgers have most of their top players back from last year, so the question now is can they build toward a middle of the conference finish?
Rutgers
Rutgers used the transfer portal earlier than most teams in the Big Ten. For a few years, it helped the Scarlet Knights supplement their roster and helped them make a few NCAA Tournament appearances. But last season Rutgers had to remake its roster through the portal after a few graduations and transfers.
It’s safe to say that didn’t work. Rutgers went 11-20 overall and just 3-14 in the Big Ten. Then to make things worse, legendary coach C. Vivian Stringer announced her retirement after the season.
Rutgers brought in Coquese Washington to replace Stringer. Coach Washington spent the past two seasons as an assistant coach at Notre Dame, but was Penn State’s coach from 2007-2019. In that time, she made four NCAA Tournaments, two Sweet Sixteens, and won the Big Ten three times. But she also struggled significantly in her final five seasons at Penn State, finishing 11th or worse in the conference in four of those seasons.
The Scarlet Knights only have 8 players listed on their roster right now, and two of those players are freshman, so it might be a long season in Piscattaway.
Illinois
Coach Nancy Fahey’s five years at Illinois went about as poorly as they possibly could have. The Illini went 42-99 in that time, and were a horrible 7-77 in the Big Ten. And it’s not like they had a ton of success before her. The Illini's last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 2003.
But Illinois does have renewed hope in the form of a new coach. Shauna Green (born in Clinton, IA) joins the program after six very successful seasons with Dayton in which she won the Atlantic 10 five times and made four NCAA Tournament appearances.
The bottom of the Big Ten was brutal last year, but Illinois was a step below the rest. Any finish above dead last would be good for Coach Green in her first season.
