WHO: #9 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0, 4-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: Sunday, January 31, 2021
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
START TIME: 11:00 AM Central
TV: BTN
ONLINE: FoxSports.com
RADIO: Hawkeye Sports Network (check local listings); TuneIn (maybe)
ANNOUNCERS: Shane Sparks and Jim Gibbons
This was supposed to be both Iowa's first triangular meet of the season as well as their first big test of the year. But that was back when Iowa was slated to face #2 Michigan. Then that dual meet got postponed, the triangular became a regular dual meet, and a chance for Iowa to test itself against one of its top challengers became another opportunity to stomp a mudhole in an overmatched opponent. So it goes.
In fairness, Illinois isn't a pushover -- they're 4-0 on the season and they've ridden that hot start to a #9 ranking. Those wins have come in lopsided fashion of Indiana and Wisconsin, as well as a narrow win over Purdue and a surprise upset of Ohio State. The Illini have wrestlers ranked within TrackWrestling's Top 30 at eight weights, including a pair of Top 10 wrestlers in Michael Carr (#8 at 149) and Luke Luffman (#5 at 285). The problem, of course, is that Iowa has higher-ranked wrestlers at every weight. Still, there should be at least a few competitive matches in this dual, even if the overall outcome is never in doubt.
| WT | #1 IOWA | VS | #9 ILLINOIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 |
#1 Spencer Lee (SR, 2-0) Aaron Cashman (SO, 0-0) |
vs | #13 Justin Cardani (SO, 2-2) |
| 133 | #4 Austin DeSanto (SR, 2-0) | vs | #23 Lucas Byrd (SO, 4-0) |
| 141 |
#1 Jaydin Eierman (SR, 2-0) Carter Happel (SR, 0-2) |
vs | #13 Dylan Duncan (SR, 2-0) |
| 149 |
#5 Max Murin (JR, 2-0) Bretli Reyna (FR, 0-1) |
vs | #8 Michael Carr (SR, 3-1) |
| 157 | #6 Kaleb Young (SR, 2-0) | vs | Johnny Mologousis (JR, 1-3) |
| 165 | #2 Alex Marinelli (SR, 2-0) | vs | Luke Odom (FR, 0-1) |
| 174 |
#1 Michael Kemerer (SR, 1-0) Patrick Kennedy (FR, 1-1) |
vs |
#26 D.J. Shannon (SO, 2-2) Trey Sizemore (SO, 0-0) |
| 184 | #6 Nelson Brands (SO, 2-0) | vs | #11 Zach Braunagel (SO, 2-2) |
| 197 |
#3 Jacob Warner (JR, 1-1) Connor Corbin (JR, 0-1) |
vs | #24 Matt Wroblewski (JR, 3-1) |
| 285 | #3 Tony Cassioppi (SO, 1-1) | vs | #5 Luke Luffman (SO, 4-0) |
Looking at things weight-by-weight:
125: Welcome to the Thunderdome, Justin Cardani. The only question here is whether or not Lee pins him or has to settle for a technical fall. I've picked a technical fall the last two times out, only to be proven wrong when Spencer notched a pin inside two minutes both times. So, what the hell, let's predict a pin here.
IOWA 6, ILLINOIS 0
133: Byrd is 4-0 on the season, but he's yet to face anyone of note at 133. DeSanto has looked better than ever through two matches this season. Tom Brands just needs to remind him not to take Byrd's arm home as a souvenir.
IOWA 11, ILLINOIS 0
141: Duncan is a very solid wrestler, a 3-time NCAA qualifier with a 70-38 overall record. He's 2-0 on the season with a pair of bonus point wins. But Eierman is a legitimate national championship contender at this weight and he's at a level that Duncan simply can't match. I think Duncan might be able to keep it close for a bit, but ultimately Eierman should win comfortably -- and I think we'll see him push his margin of victory into major decision territory.
IOWA 15, ILLINOIS 0
149: Illinois' best chances to grab a win in this dual are here and up at 285. Murin is coming off a solid 5-1 win over Minnesota's Michael Blockhus, while Michael Carr is 3-1, though his wins have come over mostly undistinguished opposition. Murin and Carr have considerable history against one another -- Murin went 2-1 against Carr when both were down at 141 lbs in 2019. Carr beat him 6-4 at the dual meet that year, but Murin edged him 3-1 at the Big Ten Tournament and 4-3 at the NCAA Tournament. I expect another close match here and it does look like a match that either guy could win, but I'll go with Murin to get a key third period takedown to win.
IOWA 18, ILLINOIS 0
157: Kaleb Young won a thriller in the tiebreaker periods of overtime against Minnesota's Brayton Lee last week. If this match is that close, something has gone horribly wrong. Mologousis is 1-3 on the season and he's coming off a 14-4 loss to Purdue's Kendall Coleman last week. I think Young gets his offense going early and often in this match and finds some bonus points.
IOWA 22, ILLINOIS 0
165: Illinois has a decent 165er in Danny Braunagel; unfortunately, he's not the listed option for the Illini at this weight in the match notes. They only list Luke Odom, a true freshman who lost his only previous match this season via 8-0 major decision. If he faces The Bull, it's going to get bloody.
IOWA 28, ILLINOIS 0
174: Kemerer made his 2021 season debut last week with a controlled 12-3 major decision win over Minnesota's Jake Allar. I think he puts on a little bit more of a show against Illinois' DJ Shannon, a 2-2 RS freshman. Let's go with Kemerer by technical fall.
IOWA 33, ILLINOIS 0
184: Technically this match isn't one of the two Top 10 clashes that could take place during this dual -- but it misses out on that status by the slightest of margins, as Brands is ranked #6 and Illinois' Zach Braunagel is ranked #11. This ought to be one of the most competitive matches of the night and another chance for Brands to establish himself as one of the guys to beat at this weight in the Big Ten. Braunagel edged Brands 3-2 at Midlands last year and I expect another close match here as well. Brands responded well to a slow start last week but he'd do well to avoid that against Braunagel whose strength and defense could make him difficult to mount a comeback against late if necessary. This match feels close to a toss-up, but it doesn't feel right to pick against Iowa yet.
IOWA 36, ILLINOIS 0
197: Warner owns a 3-0 lifetime record against Wroblewski, though they haven't squared off since the 2018 Midlands, a 6-1 Warner win. Warner won the other two meetings with Wroblewski in 2017, a 9-1 major decision and a pin in 3:47. Wroblewski is 3-1 on the season, but just 1-1 against the only two decent opponents he's faced, Purdue's Thomas Penola (a 5-3 loss) and Ohio State's Gavin Hoffman (a 4-2 victory). This is a match where Warner might be able to get bonus points if he pushes for them, but I think a comfortable decision win is a more likely outcome.
IOWA 39, ILLINOIS 0
285: Finally, at 285 we get the other Top 10 showdown of the day. In fact, this isn't just a Top 10 throwdown, it's a Top 5 clash. Luffman has rocketed up the rankings this season, thanks to a 3-2 win over Ohio State's Tate Orndorff and a 4-3 win in overtime over Wisconsin's Trent Hillger. He's clearly a very capable heavyweight. Cassioppi ought to be looking for a strong performance to rebound from the 14-6 shellacking he endured at the hands of Gable Steveson last week. I expect a fairly close match here, but Cassioppi has typically found ways to come through in matches like this, so I'll pick him to do so again here.
IOWA 42, ILLINOIS 0
Iowa hasn't had a shutout yet this season, but that looks like a very real possibility here, given that Iowa figures to be favored in every match. That said, they're only going to be slight favorites at a few weights (149, 184, 285), so they'll need to sweep those (and avoid any shock upsets elsewhere) to preserve the hope of a shutout. I think they'll get it done.
I'll be posting results in the comments below, but I encourage you to follow along with the action in our Discord server, which you can find here. More information about joining the Discord server is available here.
