Hey there, friends. Let's get a quick overview of the 2022 NCAA Wrestling Championships field.
The full brackets are available here.
125
1. Nick Suriano (11-0, SR, Michigan)
2. Vito Arujau (14-1, SO, Cornell)
3. Pat Glory (16-1, JR, Princeton)
4. Brandon Courtney (21-1, JR, Arizona State)
5. Killian Cardinale (14-1, JR, West Virginia)
6. Eric Barnett (16-3, SO, Wisconsin)
7. Trevor Mastrogiovanni (18-3, FR, Oklahoma State)
8. Patrick McKee (20-7, SO, Minnesota)
9. Devin Schroeder (19-4, SR, Purdue)
10. Michael DeAugustino (10-4, SO, Northwestern)
IOWA: #13 Drake Ayala (16-6, FR, Iowa)
ANALYSIS: In terms of the championship, the only real question is: can anyone slow down Nick Suriano? He has torn through the field at 125 lbs since arriving at Michigan in January (11-0, 91% bonus rate), which included two major decisions and a pin as he marched to a Big Ten title a few weeks ago. The best bets to deny him a second NCAA championship are in the bottom half of the bracket, with the Ivy League duo of Glory and Arujau. They're both excellent wrestlers (with a taste for high-scoring matches and bonus points) whose only losses this year have come against... each other. Glory topped Arujau at the dual, 11-9, while Arujau got revenge with an impressive 19-6 major decision win over Glory at the EIWA Championships. It seems like he has the edge on Glory for the time being, so I'd favor him to get to the finals. I can't pick against Suriano after the way he's looked over the last few months, though.
As for Iowa, Drake Ayala got a #13 seed, which sets up a rough path for him. He's got #20 Fabian Gutierrez (20-5 out of Chattanooga) in the first round and if the gets by him he should face returning NCAA finalist Brandon Courtney in the second round. Then he'd (probably) have to face Big 12 champion Killian Cardinale in the quarterfinals before a likely semifinal showdown with Suriano. Tough sledding. I'd like to say that he can wrestle back for a spot on the podium if he goes out early, but that too looks challenging and could depend on the health of his arm/shoulder. I think Ayala still has a very bright future at Iowa, but this weekend could be a bit of a rough go.
WINNER: Suriano over Arujau
IOWA PREDICTION: Ayala -- 2-2, DNP
133
1. Roman Bravo-Young (17-0, JR, Penn State)
2. Daton Fix (21-0, SO, Oklahoma State)
3. Michael McGee (21-2, JR, Arizona State)
4. Korbin Myers (18-1, SR, Virginia Tech)
5. Austin DeSanto (15-3, SR, Iowa)
6. Dylan Ragusin (22-6, FR, Michigan)
7. Lucas Byrd (21-3, FR, Illinois)
8. RayVon Foley (28-4, JR, Michigan State)
9. Michael Colaiocco (21-2, SO, Penn)
10. Chris Cannon (16-5, FR, Northwestern)
ANALYSIS: Can anything prevent a rematch of last year's NCAA finals showdown between Fix and Bravo-Young? Well, no one has been able to beat either guy so far this season. I can't say that I see that changing much this weekend.
From an Iowa perspective, DeSanto got a bit of a rough draw at #5, but ultimately it may not matter that much. He was probably going to have to beat Fix and Bravo-Young in order to claim a NCAA championship here -- so does it matter if he beats Bravo-Young, then Fix (as a #5 seed) or Fix, then Bravo-Young (as a #3 seed)? Perhaps not. To get there, he's got Air Force's Sidney Flores (17-12) in the first round, followed by a likely second round matchup with Pitt's #12 Mickey Phillippi, who DeSanto beat via 13-5 major decision at last year's NCAA Tournament. Then he could see Virginia Tech's Myers in the quarterfinals, who DeSanto beat 10-6 at last year's NCAA Tournament. That sets up the semifinal showdown with Bravo-Young. Can DeSanto finally finish some of his attacks on RBY? Let's hope so.
WINNER: Bravo-Young over Fix
IOWA PREDICTION: DeSanto -- 3rd
141
1. Nick Lee (17-0, SR, Penn State)
2. Jaydin Eierman (16-1, SR, Iowa)
3. Sebastian Rivera (24-0, SR, Rutgers)
4. Real Woods (14-1, SO, Stanford)
5. Andrew Alirez (22-3, SO, Northern Colorado)
6. Cole Matthews (17-2, SO, Pitt)
7. Clay Carlson (30-4, SO, South Dakota State)
8. Grant Willits (23-5, JR, NC State)
9. Allan Hart (15-5, JR, Missouri)
10. Jakob Bergeland (19-7, JR, Minnesota)
ANALYSIS: As the announcers have loved to note in every match of his this season, Jaydin Eierman's NCAA Tournament finishes have gone 5th, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd over the course of his NCAA career -- can he finish atop the mountain in his final shot at an NCAA title? That would be a whole lot easier without the excellent Nick Lee on the other side of the bracket -- and if Eierman was healthy. That seems to be the decisive issue for about half of this Iowa roster at NCAAs -- how healthy are they and how far can their battered bodies carry them at this tournament? Eierman is reportedly dealing with a pretty significant knee injury, which is concerning for his prospects here. I would probably not favor him over Lee if he was 100% healthy (though it would be basically a coin-flip match), but I certainly don't like a hobbled Eierman's odds. Even getting back to the championship match could be a challenge if his knee injury is truly limiting; Carlson could be a dangerous quarterfinal draw and Rivera could be a huge obstacle in the semis (though he too is dealing with injuries after forfeiting out of the Big Ten Tournament a few weeks ago).
WINNER: Lee over Rivera
IOWA PREDICTION: Eierman -- 6th (medical forfeits in consos after losing in semis)
149
1. Yianni Diakomihalis (23-0, JR, Cornell)
2. Tariq Wilson (15-0, SR, NC State)
3. Austin Gomez (18-2, JR, Wisconsin)
4. Sammy Sasso (22-2, SO, Ohio State)
5. Kyle Parco (21-1, FR, Arizona State)
6. John Millner (19-1, JR, Appalachian State)
7. Joshua Heil (11-2, SR, Campbell)
8. Max Murin (12-3, JR, Iowa)
9. Kaden Gfeller (18-2, JR, Oklahoma State)
10. Ridge Lovett (20-3, SO, Nebraska)
ANALYSIS: Weird but true -- it's been three years since we've seen Yianni Diakomihalis at the NCAA Tournament. The last time we saw him he was topping Joey McKenna in an overtime thriller at 141 lbs in the 2019 NCAA finals for his second-straight NCAA championship. Injuries and COVID robbed him of 2020 and the Ivy League's decision to ice athletics last year cost him a shot in 2021. But he's back now and while he's up a weight, not much else has changed. He's 23-0 with a 70% bonus rate this season, a record that includes wins over some of the top challengers here (Gomez, Sasso). It's going to be tough to stop him for getting his third NCAA title.
As for Murin, he got a pretty rough draw. He faces Central Michigan's Corbyn Munson (25-7) in the first round, then should get Gfeller in the second round. He edged Gfeller 5-2 at the dual meet, so hopefully he can do the same here. But if he does win that match, his reward is a likely match with... Yianni. Gulp. Hopefully Max can do some damage on the back side.
WINNER: Diakomihalis over Gomez
IOWA PREDICTION: Murin -- 5th place
157
1. David Carr (21-0, SO, Iowa State)
2. Ryan Deakin (13-0, SR, Northwestern)
3. Jacori Teemer (19-0, SO, Arizona State)
4. Ed Scott (24-2, FR, NC State)
5. Quincy Monday (20-3, JR, Princeton)
6. Jared Franek (23-3, SO, North Dakota State)
7. Josh Humphreys (18-3, JR, Lehigh)
8. Will Lewan (17-5, SO, Michigan)
9. Kaleb Young (17-7, SR, Iowa)
10. Peyton Robb (13-8, SO, Nebraska)
ANALYSIS: Not often you get a weight that still has three undefeated wrestlers, but such is the case at 157 with Carr, Deakin, and Teemer. That should make for an explosive semifinal round if they all make it that far. (A name to watch from outside the Top 10 seeds: #11 Austin O'Connor of North Carolina, who seems significantly under-seeded here.)
As for Iowa... I hate Kaleb Young's draw. He has Penn's Doug Zapf (18-6) in the first round. If he wins that, he should see Michigan's Will Lewan (17-50 in the second round. If he wins that, he'd likely get Carr in the quarters. If Young loses to Lewan, he could see Penn State's Brady Berge in his second consolation match. Young has surprised before and I think he'll need to do so here in order to ensure his final appearance in an Iowa singlet ends on a high note.
WINNER: Carr over Deakin
IOWA PREDICTION: Young -- DNP
165
1. Evan Wick (17-0, SR, Cal Poly)
2. Keegan O'Toole (20-0, FR, Missouri)
3. Alex Marinelli (20-1, SR, Iowa)
4. Dean Hamiti (24-2, FR, Wisconsin)
5. Shane Griffith (16-4, SO, Stanford)
6. Cameron Amine (16-5, FR, Michigan)
7. Carson Kharchla (21-3, FR, Ohio State)
8. Phillip Conigliaro (19-4, JR, Harvard)
9. Peyton Hall (25-3, FR, West Virginia)
10. Jake Wentzel (16-5, SR, Pitt)
ANALYSIS: Youth is ready to be served at this weight -- seven of the 10 top seeds are sophomores or younger (although that does include the COVID-era weirdness of some third-year guys still technically being "freshmen," but hey) -- but will the old heads allow it to happen this year? Evan Wick and Alex Marinelli are still around and still at the top of this weight -- and still potentially headed for one final showdown in the NCAA finals.
I was pleased that Marinelli was placed on the opposite side of the draw from Wick (and Wisconsin's Dean Hamiti), but he still has some tough obstacles in his path. After Drexel's Evan Barczak (21-9) in the first round, he could see Columbia's Josh Ogunsanya (20-6) in the second round, and a potential Big Ten finals rematch with Michigan's Amine in the quarters. Missouri's undefeated freshman star O'Toole could be waiting in the semis, followed by that aforementioned Wick match in the final. Can Marinelli end his years of NCAA frustration with one shining moment? I hope so.
WINNER: Marinelli over Wick
IOWA PREDICTION: Marinelli -- 1st
174
1. Carter Starocci (18-0, FR, Penn State)
2. Mekhi Lewis (20-1, SO, Virginia Tech)
3. Logan Massa (16-2, SR, Michigan)
4. Hayden Hidlay (14-2, SR, NC State)
5. Michael Kemerer (9-2, SR, Iowa)
6. Dustin Plott (17-3, FR, Oklahoma State)
7. Ethan Smith (21-5, JR, Ohio State)
8. Michael O'Malley (22-2, SO, Drexel)
9. Mikey Labriola (20-4, JR, Nebraska)
10. Clay Lautt (15-5, JR, North Carolina)
ANALYSIS: You could just cut-and-paste what I wrote at 141 for this weight and most of it could apply. Like Eierman, Kemerer has had an almost got 'em career with the NCAAs, finishing 3rd, 4th, and 2nd in his previous appearances. Like Eierman, Kemerer also appears to be dealing with significant injury and forfeited out of the Big Ten Tournament. How healthy is he? Can he unseat a top-seeded Penn State rival? Hard questions, no easy answers. And that's if he gets that far. Kem gets Army's Benjamin Pasiuk (19-5) in the first round, then could see South Dakota State's Cade DeVos (29-7) in the second round, followed by a possible quarterfinal clash with Hidlay. I'd have full confidence in a healthy Kem to get to the finals here. But we don't know the extent of Kem's injuries or how effectively he might be able to fight through them. I have no doubt he'll give it his all here -- I just worry there isn't much gas left in that tank.
WINNER: Lewis over Starocci
IOWA PREDICTION: Kemerer -- 6th (medical forfeits after losing in semis)
184
1. Myles Amine (17-1, SR, Michigan)
2. Aaron Brooks (16-1, SO, Penn State)
3. Trent Hidlay (17-0, SO, NC State)
4. Parker Keckeisen (24-1, FR, UNI)
5. Bernie Truax (14-2, SO, Cal Poly)
6. Trey Munoz (20-3, FR, Oregon State)
7. Kaleb Romero (13-3, JR, Ohio State)
8. Marcus Coleman (17-4, JR, Iowa State)
9. Zach Braunagel (15-7, SO, Illinois)
10. Taylor Venz (16-8, SR, Nebraska)
IOWA: #18 Abe Assad (13-8, SO, Iowa)
ANALYSIS: This weight produced one of the best matches of the Big Ten Tournament with the final between Amine and Brooks and could be poised to do so again at NCAAs. If the team race between Michigan and Penn State is as tight as it was at Big Tens, this weight would be a good one to save for the main event of the Saturday night finals. The semis could produce some fireworks as well if Hidlay and Keckeisen join Brooks and Amine there.
As for Iowa... Assad has a miserable draw and poor form heading into this event. Suffice to say, I am not confident! He has Virginia Techs's Hunter Bolen (22-5) in the first round and if he wins that match, he likely gets Penn State's Brooks in the second round. He could face Ohio State's Romero or Nebraska's Venz in his second consolation match as well. Not a fun path for Abe here.
WINNER: Brooks over Amine
IOWA PREDICTION: Assad -- DNP
197
1. Max Dean (18-1, JR, Penn State)
2. Stephen Buchanan (23-2, SO, Wyoming)
3. Eric Schultz (16-2, SR, Nebraska)
4. Patrick Brucki (19-6, SR, Michigan)
5. Nino Bonaccorsi (15-3, JR, Pitt)
6. Jacob Warner (17-5, JR, Iowa)
7. Rocky Elam (19-5, FR, Missouri)
8. Lou DePrez (26-3, JR, Binghamton)
9. Cameron Caffey (27-7, JR, Michigan State)
10. Yonger Bastida (19-5, FR, Iowa State)
ANALYSIS: Dean has looked very good this year so this could be a simple march through the bracket for him... but this is also a weight with a lot of good wrestlers, so it also feels like one of the weights where things could get a little chaotic in terms of the results. Warner has his work cut out for him, though. He gets Northern Colorado's Alan Clothier (14-11) in the first round and could see Purdue's Thomas Penola (22-7) in the second round. But a quarterfinal tilt with Schultz looks daunting, as does a potential semifinal match with Buchanan. But I do thin Warner could do some damage in the wrestlebacks.
WINNER: Dean over Schultz
IOWA PREDICTION: Warner -- 4th
285
1. Gable Steveson (13-0, JR, Minnesota)
2. Cohlton Schultz (18-0, FR, Arizona State)
3. Tony Cassioppi (15-2, JR, Iowa)
4. Greg Kerkvliet (18-2, FR, Penn State)
5. Wyatt Hendrickson (24-0, SO, Air Force)
6. Jordan Wood (22-2, SR, Lehigh)
7. Mason Parris (15-4, SR, Michigan)
8. Matt Stencel (18-4, SR, Central Michigan)
9. Lucas Davison (22-6, SO, Northwestern)
10. Nathan Traxler (19-2, SR, Virginia Tech)
ANALYSIS: There's Steveson -- and then there's everyone else. He's the biggest lock in the field this weekend and there's no reason to think he won't roll to another NCAA title here. He is that much better than everyone else he'll face. But who will he face in the finals? Well, hopefully Tony Cassioppi. Cass has Oklahoma's Josh Heindselman (14-13) in the first round and could see Illinois' Luke Luffman (15-10) in the second round. But Lehigh's Jordan Wood could loom in the quarters, followed by Schultz (or -- gulp -- Mason Parris) in the semis.
WINNER: Steveson over Cassioppi
IOWA PREDICTION: Cassioppi -- 2nd
