A few weeks ago following Iowa's 27-17 win at then-No. 9 Iowa State, my colleague and site owner Pat Vint made a point on Twitter that has stuck with me for weeks:
2002-04, 2009: Iowa won a bunch of games, but only the top 2 mattered and we didn't start the season high enough.
— WWF Hall of Famer Ivan Bologna (@PV_GIA) September 12, 2021
2015: One play short, probably started too low
2006, 2010: Lost early, flamed out.
2021: Didn't start too low, didn't lose early...
This tweet really encapsulates how, in a sport where perception and reputation often outweighs what happens on the field, the little realistic chance Iowa has had at playing for a national title in past years entering October. To be fair, only one team referenced here (2002) would make the playoff if the field existed at the time but this is more a study of whether or not there was as much opportunity for the program nationally this early in any of the past years as there is this season..
I contend there was not and, as a result, the 2021 Hawkeyes are treading in uncharted territory and as we enter Big Ten play.
2002-2004, 2009
In the first golden run of the Kirk Ferentz era from 2002-2004, Iowa went 31-7 overall and won a pair of Big Ten titles. In only one of those seasons, though, were the Hawkeyes ranked in the preseason—No. 19 in 2004. Unfortunately these teams were victims of the era they played in as the BCS system limited the national title chase to only two teams and early poll position (and some computer crap) carried far too much weight. For example, 2002's 11-1 team didn't enter the top ten until late October and the Hawkeyes only reached the top five in the last poll of the season before the bowl game.
Iowa lost three games in 2003 and two in 2004, so it's not like they were screwed out of a BCS title game appearance or anything, but the point is that poll-heavy format (and as the 2002 example shows) one loss likely deep-sixed any hope of a national title. In the CFP era teams can realistically survive one loss and still make the playoff which the 2002 team would've likely done.
In 2009, Iowa opened the season ranked 22nd in the AP poll, but, even though they were undefeated, dropped out of the rankings for three weeks (after narrowly beating UNI) until winning at #5 Penn State in late September. From there, Iowa jumped from 13th to 4th in the country following the famous "7 got 6" game at Michigan State in October,
November 9, 2009 Derrell Johnson Iowa Hawkeyes REGIONAL Sports Illustrated https://t.co/X180hKllW3 pic.twitter.com/Rc3lF6QIQV
— Amazing SportCards (@AmazingSportCa) September 7, 2016
A loss to Northwestern two weeks later dropped Iowa to #10 in the polls and effectively ended any BCS title hopes and the Hawkeyes' OT loss at Ohio State the following week cost them the Big Ten title as well. 2009 was a microcosm though of just how little room for error there was for the program in the BCS era—Iowa was 9-0 with a top-five road win but just a single seven-point loss in early November knocked them completely out of national contention.
2006, 2010
2005's Iowa team never got off the ground nationally as the preseason #11 Hawkeyes started 2-2 with losses at Iowa State and at Ohio State ending any BCS title hopes. The 2006 Hawkeyes, though, started 4-0 and peaked at 13th entering their showdown in Iowa City with the #1 Buckeyes in late September. A 38-17 defeat that day, however, sent Iowa tailspinning into what was eventually a 6-7 season.
Until their first loss there was some reason to believe the 2006 Hawkeyes could possibly make a BCS title game run, but after the loss to #1 Ohio State, Iowa dropped all the way down to #19 in the polls. Had they rebounded to win out with only one loss the Hawkeyes still wouldn't have made the title game.
Like in 2006, there were incredibly high-hopes entering the 2010 season. Early poll position wasn't an issue—Iowa opened the season ranked #9 (their highest preseason ranking ever under Ferentz)—but a week three loss at #24 Arizona dropped Iowa to 18th in the country. A late October home loss to #10 Wisconsin officially ended the Hawkeyes' national title hopes and a three-game losing skid in November stamped the 2010 campaign as perhaps the most disappointing year of Ferentz's tenure in Iowa CIty.
2015
It was so shocking at the time that I often have to remind myself that 2015's 12-2 season actually happened. Just eight-ish months removed from the 2015 Tax Hawk Slayer Bowl and "That's football," serious questions surrounding Ferentz's job security plagued the program as week one against Illinois State approached.
A somewhat surprising 4-0 start featuring stirring wins at Iowa State and versus Pittsburgh hinted that a special season was upon us, but it wasn't until after a 10-6 win at Wisconsin to open conference play that stuff became real (and the Hawkeyes were finally ranked in national polls).
SI regional cover features the undefeated Iowa Hawkeyes https://t.co/lBnt8O6gKa @SInow pic.twitter.com/xZiE8TxiBk
— Cody (@cody_e_bennett) November 24, 2015
At the same time (thanks to perception more than results) the Hawkeyes were getting no respect nationally as the possibility of a playoff berth suddenly became very real. It took until Iowa was 8-0 in late October for them to reach the Top Ten of the polls and, though they were one of only two unbeaten Power Five teams, the Hawkeyes didn't reach the top five until week 12 of the season.
Still, everyone and their mother knew that a single slip-up would end any CFP hopes and some stuff happened in Indianapolis to do just that. The campaign was, and still is, a shocking year from a program that was seemingly DOA entering September.
These 2021 Hawkeyes were supposed to be good, and possibly great if everything broke right for them and through one month, things have done just that. Iowa is unbeaten and ranked high enough early in the season that there is legitimate buzz that this could be the Ferentz team to break through and have a shot at a national title. Even one loss (to the right team) might be survivable in relation to making this year's CFP.
Friday will be a sizable test for Iowa. Maryland boasts an explosive offensive attack and will be doing so in front of a "blackout," night game atmosphere. The Hawkeye defense should be up to the task, but one has to think the offensive run game has to get going at some point if Iowa is going to accomplish what this team is set up to do over the next eight weeks.
Staring down a seemingly wide-open Big Ten in front of them, an incredible opportunity awaits these Hawkeyes. Let's hope they can continue their march to Indianapolis and (possibly) beyond Friday night under the lights in College Park, MD.
#GOIOWAAWESOME
