Welcome to the second weekend in November, where the real fun begins. Trophy games, cold weather, and some good, old-fashioned Big Ten Football. Our picks once again stunk last week, and for the first time in decades, we have a losing record during a season. It's been awful, and we apologize BUT the good news is we think we found the problem. You see, for the last few weeks, we have been solely trusting our weather reporting to one of our staff members that claimed to have a background in meteorology. Turns out he had only taken one meteorology class in college and quit after three weeks. That explains why, over the past three weeks, we have picked the OVER in several games that were played in driving rainstorms and hurricane-force winds. Not great!
Luckily, we found this issue before it was too late and our “weather guy” has been fired. We have been in contact with a real weatherman over the last 24 hours who has reviewed our picks this week and assured us that we are in tune with the forecast and that we will not have any monsoons sneak up on us.
With that in mind, we are confident that our picks will begin to get hot again, much like they were at the beginning of the year when many people were saying they were the best picks that had ever been picked.
OK, let’s find some winners.
BIG TEN GAMES OF THE WEEK OF THE CENTURY
Wisconsin +1.5 @ Iowa (2:30 PM CST, FS1)
The battle for the brass bull has arrived at what appears to be the perfect time for both teams. Iowa has found some offense while Wisconsin seems to be adjusting nicely to their new head coach after some early struggles. By the time this game kicks off, we should know if either team has a real shot at making the Big Ten Championship Game. Our hopes for that lie in the hands of Purdue, who I definitely trust and think will beat Illinois…
Anywhoooo, this game will feature two of the best young backs in the conference. Braelon Allen is 11 yards from reaching 1,000 on year and is just a very fast, large, and scary human. Iowa counters with Kaleb Johnson, who rushed for 200 yards last week and might be the greatest running back in the history of the conference.
I am talking up the running backs because this is Iowa vs Wisconsin. Both of these guys are probably going to get run into the ground on Saturday. It is going to be cold and windy (SPREAD AWARENESS WEATHERMAN APPROVED FORECAST), and both teams are just generally pretty bad at passing. Those factors, mixed with two very good defenses, mean this game might be over in 90 minutes.
Here is the thing...Don't expect Iowa to win. Why? Because I am going to the game and the only time I have ever seen Iowa win a football game in person has been when they play against Nebraska which basically doesn’t even count because they are so bad.
Sorry, everyone, but if I am in attendance the bull is probably going to spend another year in Madison.
PICK: WISCONSIN +1.5, UNDER 35
Purdue +6.5 @ #21 Illinois (11:00 AM CST, ESPN2)
This is the big one for those of you that are still hoping Iowa can make the Big Ten Championship Game. Do I want this to happen? Not sure. I didn’t exactly have a fun time in Indianapolis last year, or when Iowa played Michigan and Ohio State earlier this year, so maybe we should all just hope Illinois wins?
Yea? Are we in agreement? No? OK, you are right. We can totally win the Big Ten Championship if we can just get into the title game. I mean, we didn’t lose that badly to Ohio State and Michigan…Like if a few bounces go our way, and if all of their starters got COVID, we totally could beat them in a rematch. Plus, it is super hard to beat a team twice in one season. Have some faith, we got this!
PICK: Purdue +6.5
Rutgers +9.5 @ Michigan State (11:00 AM CST, BTN)
We thought Michigan State having half of their team suspended due to assaulting Michigan players would make their pretty bad team even worse. We were, of course, WRONG, as they went to Illinois and pulled off the upset as a 16.5-point underdog. Gambling is fun. We are having fun.
Rutgers has lost five out of their last six games and despite showing some fight in the first half vs Michigan last week, they quickly came crashing back to Earth. MSU hasn’t been great, but they have at least looked semi-competent as of late. Sparty covers here.
PICK: MSU -9.5
Indiana -40.5 @ #2 Ohio State (11:00 AM CST, FOX)
It seems like every week Ohio State is a 30+ point favorite, and every week they fail to cover. The Buckeyes are 4-4-1 ATS this year and I believe we are 0-9 picking their games. With that knowledge now public, we are going to do the smart thing and not pick a side here. We are just going to take the UNDER and not check the score of this game until Sunday morning.
PICK: UNDER 58.5
Maryland +10.5 @ #14 Penn State (2:30 PM CST, FOX)
Last week we correctly said that Maryland had no chance against Wisconsin because Taulia Tagovailoa can’t stay healthy. And while he may have played the entire game, he was sacked five times and only had 10 completions for 77 yards (Ha! Imagine only having 77 yards passing in a college football game. Couldn’t be my team!)
Look for Penn State to do pretty much the same thing Wisconsin did last week and shut down the Terps. The good news for Maryland is they are already bowl-eligible so woo!
PICK: Penn State -9.5
Nebraska +30.5 @ #3 Michigan (2:30 PM CST, ABC)
Nebraska will be without their starting QB again this week which could be a problem considering their second and third string QBs literally cannot pass the ball. I am not sure what they are going to do against Michigan, but bringing back the triple option seems like the only viable option.
Michigan running back Blake Corum, who should be in New York for the Heisman ceremony, is probably licking his chops getting ready for this one. The Huskers let Mo Ibrahim run for 132 yards and two touchdowns last week, and I fully expect Corum to do the same. Michigan by a billion.
PICK: Michigan -30.5
Northwestern + 17.5 @ Minnesota (2:30 PM CST, BTN)
Northwestern kept it close with Ohio State last week in what was a shocker to everyone. All it took was 40+ mph winds and a driving rainstorm to do it. This team is awful, and our new weather guy has assured us that there will be no rain in Minneapolis this weekend so it is tough to see how they will be able to keep it close. With that being said, we are taking Northwestern because our picks have been so bad lately sometimes you have to fade yourself.
PICK: Northwestern +17.5
TOP 25 GAMES OF THE WEEK OF THE CENTURY
**NOTE: Spread Awareness did the impossible and picked every game of the week of the century wrong last week. Some say that is bad, some call it impressive. Either way, we are due for a huge bounce-back, or another epic meltdown...Maybe fade these picks....
#7 LSU -3.5 @ Arkansas: Everyone and their grandmother is picking Arkansas in this game. This is a big letdown spot for LSU, BUT…it’s tough to trust a team that has lost its three games vs ranked opponents by a combined 48 points. Geaux Tigers.
#9 Alabama -11.5 @ #11 Ole Miss: I am starting to think the old saying “You don’t win money betting against Nick Saban” isn’t true anymore. Ole Miss is 1-4 ATS at home this season though, so I GUESS we will give Saban one more shot.
Louisville +7 @ #10 Clemson: DJ Ukulele ain’t that guy, and I am not sure why Dabo refuses to try someone else. Louisville has covered in their last four games, why not make it five??
#25 Washington +13.5 vs #6 Oregon: Oregon is 4-0 ATS at home this year but that should end here. Washington has lost three in a row in this series but all three games have been close.
#18 Texas -7 vs #4 TCU: A lot of people are doubting the Horned Frogs, probably because they have hurt almost every starting QB they have played which makes winning a little easier. IF Ewers plays the entire game for Texas, I think they cover. If he gets hurt, this pick never happened.
BONUS BEAUTIFUL JERSEY GAME OF THE YEAR
Western Kentucky -13 vs Rice: The Hilltoppers are busting out these wonderful jerseys this weekend, no way they don’t cover.
The moment youve all been waiting for@caboni and @WKUBigRed came through#GoTops https://t.co/6mIWO035ev pic.twitter.com/TZT4523pJS
— WKU Football (@WKUFootball) November 8, 2022
YEAR-TO-DATE RECORD
- Overall: 72-73-1
- Against the Spread (ATS): 56-55-1
- Over/Under (O/U): 16-18
