IOWA (4-0) VS. CLEMSON (4-1)
DATE: November 25, 2022
TIME: 6:00 p.m. CT
LOCATION: Northwest Florida State College Arena, Niceville, FL
TV: CBS Sports Network
RADIO: Learfield Sports
STREAMING: CBS Sports Online
LINE: Iowa -8
KENPOM: Iowa -8 (Iowa 76% win probability)
As you bask in the glow of a Big Ten West title, enjoy an early-evening side of basketball, as the Hawkeyes face Clemson in the semifinals of the Emerald Coast Classic. Tipoff is at 6:00 Central, so you might miss the first part while the football game is wrapping up. It's OK, we won't tell. Winner gets the winner of TCU-Cal (almost certainly TCU, because Cal is God-level awful), to be played after this game, on Saturday afternoon.
Clemson is led by longtime head coach Brad Brownell, who was hired 26 days after Fran McCaffery was announced at Iowa. His results have been Extremely Clemson: Three Tournament appearances in twelve seasons, with one trip to the Sweet 16 back in 2018. The Tigers have finished over .500 in all but one of those twelve seasons, but within three games of .500 in six of them. It's not really a surprise that Brownell's seat is warm headed into this season.
So far this season, Clemson has dispatched four cupcakes by double-digit margins and lost rival South Carolina in a game where they posted a putrid 0.83 points per possession. South Carolina followed up that win with losses to Colorado State, Davidson and Furman. South Carolina is bad. You should not be losing to South Carolina.
Brownell certainly has a signature playing style: Offense run at a medium pace, defense built to pack the lane and extend opposition possessions to the end of the shot clock. His good teams have been built on all-world defense: The four times Clemson has won 20 games under Brownell, their defense has been in the top 20 in efficiency. Every other season, it's been somewhere between 33 and 101. It's 69th so far this season. That should be nice for Iowa, especially given that Clemson has struggled to defend the perimeter; opponents are shooting 37.5% from three, and none of those opponents are currently ranked in the Kenpom Top 125.
The big story so far this season for Clemson has been the status of junior center PJ Hall (6'10", 245). Hall was probably Clemson's best player last season, but had foot surgery after the end of last season, then suffered a patella injury in July. As a result, he's not starting, and has played limited minutes in four games. On Monday night, he logged just 13 minutes against Loyola (Maryland). If healthy, Hall is a stretch five who shot 55 percent from two and 31 percent from three last year, but that appears to be a big "if" at the moment. Clemson has been starting sophomore center Ben Middlebrooks (6'10", 240) in his absence, but Middlebrooks is very much a placeholder: He's scored 7 total points in five games, and has yet to play more than 11 minutes in a game.
Instead, Clemson has largely opted primarily for small-ball, with senior power forward Hunter Tyson (6'8", 220) and sophomore power forward Ian Schieffelin (6'7", 230) playing in tandem on the front line. Both players are solid rebounders, with Tyson posting double-doubles against The Citadel (19 points, 13 rebounds, hey Austin Ash, how ya doin'?) and Bellarmine (11 and 10). Tyson also averages almost five three-point attempts per game and is shooting 33 percent, if you had any misunderstanding about his role. Schieffelin was a monster off the bench against The Citadel, posting 20 points and 14 boards, but hasn't been as impactful since. Freshmen Chauncey Wiggins (6'10", 205) and RJ Godfrey (6'7", 225) got some run in the blowout of Loyola, but haven't been seen much otherwise.
Clemson runs a three-man backcourt, headed by junior point guard Chase Hunter (6'3", 205). Hunter has been white-hot so far this season, shooting SIXTY-EIGHT PERCENT from three and averaging 16 points per game. Wing forward Brevin Galloway (6'3", 210) hasn't been as effective from deep, making just 5 of 18 attempts so far this season, but gets in the lane and draws a ton of fouls. Shooting guard Alex Hemenway (6'4", 195) is a pure perimeter shooter, but has made 48% on a team-high 25 attempts this season. Freshmen Dillon Hunter (6'3", 195) and Josh Beadle (6'3", 185) provide bench depth, but neither has been productive.
So here's the thing: Even if Hall is healthy and can go 30+ minutes, Clemson is not deep. The backcourt is essentially three guys playing 30 minutes, with some spot help from a couple of warm bodies; the frontcourt isn't much better. The whole Brownell slow-tempo defense thing isn't just a style for this squad. It's a necessity. And Iowa is the second-fastest offensive team in the nation. The slow-possession defense scheme is Shaheen Holloway's calling card, too, and Iowa dragged them into a 70-possession game on their home floor. Unless Hall can go 30 minutes, Clemson will also struggle to shut down the lane against a bigger, lankier, deeper Iowa front line. Iowa should go to the Emerald Coast and drag Clemson out into the deep water.
