It's been a while since we've been here. Eight years, to be precise, since we had to recap a loss by Iowa to Nebraska in football. That defeat, in 2014, combined with an 0-for display in trophy games and a blowout loss to Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl prompted changes within the Iowa program. Will this loss do the same for the current Hawkeye program? Let's hope so.
In some ways this was a shit happens game -- a lot of things that could wrong for Iowa did go wrong, all at once. Losing Cooper DeJean to injury on a block early in the game was a terrible bit of luck and it proved costly to Iowa in both the secondary and the punt return game. Losing Spencer Petras to injury after a blind-side sack early in the second quarter was also unlucky, although in that case that hit and the ensuing fumble (as well as Alex Padilla's fumble on a similar hit later in the game) were also indicative of a persistent problem for Iowa in this game and in the season writ large: shoddy pass protection by the offensive line. (We'll get back to that in a bit.) The turnover gods also turned against Iowa for much of this game; Iowa ended the game with a -3 turnover margin, thanks to two fumbles, a muffed punt, and Padilla's game-ending interception. Overcoming a turnover margin like that would be difficult for almost any team; it's virtually impossible for a team as offensively-challenged as Iowa.
Nebraska took full advantage of those turnovers and injuries and hit Iowa with haymaker after haymaker in the first half, with the first (and biggest) coming via an 87-yard touchdown pass from Casey Thompson to Trey Palmer early in the second quarter. Iowa had given up fewer 20+ and 30+ yard plays than anyone in college football this year and just one play of 60+ yards -- but Thompson and Palmer socked me right between the eyes. Palmer found himself matched up on T.J. Hall, Cooper DeJean's replacement at cornerback, and Nebraska exploited the hell out of that matchup. Hall had a rough day (to put it mildly) and was eventually replaced by Jamison Heinz, a walk-on (who also had a rough day). Iowa preaches a "next man in" mentality, but DeJean's injury seemed to be the final straw for an Iowa secondary that was already without Jermari Harris and Terry Roberts.
Iowa's next drive after Palmer's big play touchdown ended after four plays on the Petras strip-sack (and injury). Iowa's defense did some bending, but broke before Nebraska could get into the end zone and forced the Huskers to settle for a 21-yard field goal and a 10-lead. The next Iowa drive covered almost seven minutes but just 13 plays and 31 yards -- and ended in essentially the same fashion as the previous one, with a Padilla strip-sack fumble. There was bending AND breaking by the Iowa defense on the ensuing drive, as a four-play Nebraska drive (aided by an Iowa pass interference penalty) ended with another Thompson-to-Palmer touchdown pass and a 17-0 Nebraska lead.
A 17-0 halftime deficit seemed daunting enough, but things went from bad to worse early in the second half despite Iowa forcing a Nebraska punt on the Huskers' first possession of the third quarter. Arland Bruce IV (subbing for the injured Cooper DeJean) muffed the punt, which Nebraska recovered on the Iowa 18-yard line. Three plays later Thompson connected with Marcus Washington for another touchdown and a 24-0 lead. If a 17-0 deficit was bad, a 24-0 hole might as well have been 240-0 for this Iowa offense.
But, to its credit, this Iowa team did not quit in the face of such a massive deficit and when playing Nebraska there's always a chance that the Huskers will do some very stupid things. Which is exactly what happened. Iowa finally put together a good drive that didn't end in a turnover, capped off by a 44-yard touchdown run by Kaleb Johnson. Iowa's ground game was one of the only parts of the offense that actually worked reasonably well in this game. Officially, the Hawkeyes had 33 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown, but that also includes 39 lost yards for sacks from Padilla and Petras. Iowa's running backs were effective, though: Kaleb Johnson had 109 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries (6.8 ypc) and Leshon Williams had 43 yards on nine carries (4.8 ypc). It's not too hard to imagine a game where Iowa is able to methodically run over Nebraska if they could have avoided those early turnovers that dug them an eventual 24-0 hole.
The Iowa defense made a huge stop on 3rd-and-1 on the next Nebraska drive and forced a punt; unfortunately, the Iowa offense could not take advantage and punted on 4th-and-long from the Nebraska side of the field. The next Nebraska drive was an absolute killer -- it led to no points, but Nebraska ran off over six minutes of clock in the fourth quarter on an 11-play, 35-yard drive that was kept alive by a costly personal foul penalty on Sebastian Castro on a punt. Castro was called for jumping over the punt shield; that's a personal foul penalty, which results in 15 yards and an automatic first down. On replay, it looked like Castro was helped over the punt shield by a Nebraska player, but that penalty exists to protect players like Castro from doing things like that and potentially hurting themselves; he did jump toward the Nebraska players and put himself in a position where that penalty could be called. There was no need to do anything like that at that moment, either; Nebraska was punting and Iowa was poised to get the ball back in reasonably good field position with 13 minutes to go. Instead, the Huskers were able to bleed another three minutes off the clock.
When Iowa finally did get the ball, the Hawkeyes put together what was arguably their finest drive of the 2022 season, a 9-play, 90-yard (!) drive that covered just 2:45 and was capped off with a 14-yard touchdown reception by Luke Lachey in which he carried three Nebraska defenders into the end zone with him. Credit to Lachey, too: he was one of the other rare good things for Iowa on offense in this game -- he finished with 89 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions in this game, suggesting he's capable of carrying the load for Iowa at tight end next season. Unfortunately, that was just about it for good plays by the Iowa offense for the remainder of the game.
The Iowa defense finally made the big play the Hawkeyes had needed all game on the next Nebraska drive, forcing and recovering a fumble on first down. The Iowa offense took over at the Nebraska 27-yard line... and proceeded to go absolutely nowhere. After three incomplete passes by Padilla, Drew Stevens came on and drilled 45-yard field that -- improbably, and semi-inexplicably -- made it a one-possession game with just under six minutes to play. Could Nebraska really Nebraska this hard one more time?
Alas, no. The defense forced a three-and-out and a punt, but Iowa's offense managed just one complete pass in seven plays before turning the ball over on downs. The defense was able to force another three-and-out to return the ball to the Iowa offense with 1:05 to go, but there were no miracles in store for Alex Padilla & Co. After a short completion on first down, Padilla's next three passes went: incomplete, incomplete, interception.
A recurring theme for Iowa on those final, ineffectual possessions? Alex Padilla scrambling for his life behind the line of scrimmage as Iowa's pass protection broke down, yet again. This game wasn't a complete waste for the offensive line -- as noted, they did some good things in run-blocking and creating holes for Johnson and Williams. But when it came to pass protection, it was the same sorry song and dance that we've seen over and over this season, as blitzers raced through Iowa's protection untouched to harass the quarterback, forcing rushed decisions, tipped passes, and errant throws again and again. There will be a lot of questions about who the Iowa quarterback will be during the upcoming offseason, but it may not matter very much if the Iowa offensive line isn't able to take some massive steps forward by next September.
While injuries and bad turnover luck played key roles in this Iowa loss, this defeat was also one that was of Iowa's own making, given the consistently substandard play of the offense all season. Against a below-average Nebraska defense, Iowa's offense still could only muster 274 yards of offense and 17 points (and even then, three of those points were all but gifted by the defense via the fumble recovery). That's the sort of anemic offensive production we've been accustomed to seeing all season and it puts an inordinate amount of pressure on the defense and special teams. The defense and special teams were able to bear that pressure during Iowa's four-game winning streak leading up to this game, but they buckled a bit here and that left the Hawkeyes with nowhere to turn.
This is definitely a loss that will sting for quite some time, too, given the stakes. The drum had been beating all week that Iowa controlled its own destiny to win the Big Ten West and make the Big Ten Championship Game; all the Hawkeyes had to do was beat 3-8 Nebraska. Instead... thud. (Hilariously, despite this loss Iowa is actually not eliminated from contention in the division -- if Northwestern upsets Illinois AND Indiana upsets Purdue tomorrow, then Iowa would improbably back into another West title.) This loss -- and, ultimately, this season -- has to go down as one of the most bitterly disappointing of Kirk Ferentz's tenure in Iowa City, right alongside the 2005 and 2010 campaigns. (2016 and 2019 aren't too far behind, either.) Iowa had one of the best defenses in not just the Ferentz Era, but in the history of the Iowa program; that, coupled with a West division without any standout teams, set the table for them to repeat as West champions. Instead, one of the worst offenses in not just the Ferentz Era, but the history of the Iowa program, continually held them back. Failing to win the West this season constitutes a painful whiff and a serious black eye on the program.
