IOWA (5-1) VS. GEORGIA TECH (4-2)
DATE: November 29, 2022
TIME: 8:00 p.m. CT
LOCATION: Carver Hawkeye Arena
TV: ESPN2
RADIO: Learfield Sports
STREAMING: ESPN+
LINE: Iowa -15.5
KENPOM: Iowa -15 (Iowa 91% win probability)
An era ends for Iowa on Tuesday night: The Hawkeyes participate in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge for the last time when they face Georgia Tech at CHA. Tipoff on ESPN2 is scheduled for 8:00 Central.
After a weekend where Iowa struggled to shoot in the Florida Panhandle and suffered their first loss of the season, Georgia Tech presents an opportunity to return to form. The Hawkeyes are unquestioned heavy favorites against the Yellow Jackets. So far this season, Georgia Tech has rolled over four cupcakes and two losses at a holiday tournament in Fort Meyers against Utah (close) and Marquette (not close). This comes on the heels of a 12-20 season last year. Things aren't great for seventh-year coach Josh Pastner.
If you were concerned about Georgia Tech following TCU's model and using pure size and interior strength against the Hawkeyes, you're going to be disappointed. Tech is small. Like low-major small. There is only one player in Georgia Tech's rotation over 6'7" tall, and that player (6'11" forward Rodney Howard) only plays about 12 minutes per game and has scored a grand total of six points against Division I competition this season. Tech is shooting just 46% on two-point attempts this year as a result, and their assist-to-field goal ratio is among the 100 worst in college hoops. They are 346th in offensive rebounds allowed, with opponents rebounding nearly two out of every five misses.
So then, you might think, Georgia Tech is going to try to win from the perimeter. Wrong again! Tech is 324th in three-point shot attempt percentage (the number of three-point attempts out of all shot attempts) and is shooting a 311th-placed 28.6% from behind the arc. You could say their shooting percentage is Down.
In other words, I'm not sure how this team scores. There are three Yellow Jackets averaging double figures, but just barely -- forward Dallian Coleman (6'6", 220, 11.3 ppg), wing Miles Kelly (6'6", 175, 11.2 ppg) and point guard Deivon Smith (6'1", 175, 10.8 ppg) -- and one player not far behind, forward Ja'von Franklin (6'7", 215, 9.3 ppg). Coleman and Smith are established starters, and Kelly got his first start of the season Saturday against North Alabama. Franklin, who has been their most efficient offensive player by miles, has started the last two games. Perhaps Pastner is finally figuring out who should and should not be playing, but these aren't freshmen; rotations should have been established weeks ago. It's quite possibly the most confusing Kenpom profile I've ever reviewed.
Defensively, Iowa is going to have to watch for Coleman and backup guard Kyle Sturdevant (6'3", 195) on the perimeter, meaning this could be a busy night. Kelly isn't shy about taking his share of three-point attempts, either, but he's shooting a whopping 18% so far this season on 22 attempts, and was only at 33% last year. Tech's most effective inside scorer has arguably been the point guard, Smith, who leads the team in two-point attempts (7.3 per game) and two-point makes (3.7 per game), and is second to only Franklin in two-point percentage (50%).
On offense, Iowa is going to run into a Tech defense that, while lacking the usual size expected of an ACC opponent, plays well as a unit. Tech's opponents are shooting at just a 43.6% effective rate so far this season, and just 26% behind the arc. The rebounding figure mentioned above has been killer, though, as has been their number of free throws conceded (nullified slightly by the fact that their opponents are shooting just 61% from the stripe). Surprisingly, Georgia Tech blocks a lot of shots, particularly Franklin and sophomore forward Jalon Moore (6'7", 210). While a significant portion of this is competition-based, it's obvious that Tech is good at team defense.
With all that said, Iowa now has a type. In the aftermath of TCU, it's clear that there will be some teams that are going to give this particular Iowa roster trouble absent a red-hot shooting night from the Hawkeyes. But whatever this Georgia Tech team is, it isn't that, and Iowa should use its size and length to make this a relatively stress-free night at Carver Hawkeye Arena.
