Iowa versus Duke -- we know how this script plays out, right? Unfortunately, yes: Duke kept Iowa at arm's length for most of the game, won by 12 (74-62), and improved their record over the Hawkeyes to 8-1 all-time. The frustrating thing about this loss was that Duke didn't even play that well in easing past Iowa. Duke shot 44% for the game and 35% from 3-point range -- numbers that were far better than their second half shooting numbers (39% overall, 11% from deep -- regression to the mean hit like a pile of bricks after they went 6/11 from 3-point range in the first half). We fretted about Duke's ability to control the glass with their army of giants and while they did win the rebounding battle, it wasn't a total wipeout -- 45-35 overall, 11-9 edge on the offensive glass. This was, on the whole, a beatable Duke team, especially when they went through some dry spells in the second half.
So why were they celebrating a win at the end of the game and not the Hawkeyes? Unfortunately, as underwhelming as Duke's shooting was for portions of this game, Iowa's shooting was worse. Much worse. The Hawkeyes shot 39.7% overall and a disastrous 18.8% from 3-point range. As bad as they were from deep in the first half (2/9), they were even worse in the second half (1/7). A team like Iowa isn't going to beat Duke if their jump shots aren't falling, especially from 3-point range, and Iowa's jumpers were locked in the deep freeze all night.
The inability to hit from deep is becoming a real concern, too. Against non-cupcake competition, Iowa's 3-point shooting has been pretty grim:
- Seton Hall: 5/16 (31.2%)
- Clemson: 4/19 (21%)
- TCU: 3/17 (17.6%)
- Georgia Tech: 9/26 (34.6%)
- Duke: 3/16 (18.8%)
That's a not-so-sizzling 25.5% from beyond the arc against opponents with a pulse. If you take out the relative heater Iowa had against Georgia Tech, the three-point number drops to 22.1%. It's damn hard to beat decent teams -- let alone good-to-very-good opponents -- shooting as miserably as that. Iowa needs to start making some outside shots. There were decent looks tonight, the ball just steadfastly refused to go in the hoop. Maybe -- hopefully -- this is just a prolonged early season shooting slump and Iowa will be able to shake it off. Outside of Connor McCaffery (making a definitely-sustainable 56% from long distance), Iowa's guards have really struggled to get threes to go down: Tony Perkins is 4/13, Payton Sandfort is 8/36, and Ahron Ulis is 5/17.
Of course, it wasn't just 3s that weren't dropping for the Hawkeyes in this game -- they were 22/47 (46.8%) on shots inside the arc too. They missed mid-range jumpers, they missed floaters, they missed lay-ups and putbacks near the rim. Filip Rebraca had a brutal stretch late in the first half when he missed three bunnies and Perkins was an icy 1/8 on 2-point tries.
A game after putting up an all-time great performance -- 31 points, 20 rebounds -- Kris Murray had by far his worst game of the season, managing just 8 points on 3/9 shooting, along with 7 rebounds, and 3 assists. He just looked off the entire night; he was badly short on several shots, tossing up more airballs in one game than we've seen him do in entire months worth of games. To Duke's credit, they certainly keyed on him on defense and made it hard for him to get the ball in his most comfortable spots.
In doing so, the Blue Devils exposed a key weakness for this Iowa team -- if you stop Kris Murray, it's not clear who the hell is going to be able to step up and make you pay. Tonight, no one could. Iowa's leading scorers were Patrick McCaffery and Dasonte Bowen, who each had 12 points. McCaffery's points came in spurts in each half, while Bowen's points came primarily late, with the game effectively over. Bowen was 5/7 from the floor and 2/2 at the free throw line, though, and he definitely provided a much-needed jolt. It was too little, too late tonight, but there's no doubt that he needs to be getting more minutes. You might not want to insert him into the starting lineup just yet -- Iowa's next two games are against Iowa State and Wisconsin -- but he definitely needs to be getting more run, especially with Iowa's other guards struggling at the moment.
Outside of McCaffery and Bowen, Iowa's only other double-figure scorer was Filip Rebraca, who had 10 points (on 5/12 shooting), 8 rebounds, and 3 blocks. The missed layups were frustrating, but Rebraca played with good energy all night long, stayed out of foul trouble (he had just one foul in 33 minutes of action), and played Duke's mega-hyped freshman Kyle Filipowski to a near-statistical draw (12 points on 5/15 shooting, 10 rebounds). In fact, despite Duke's army of highly-touted bigs, the guys that killed Iowa were the wings -- Jeremy Roach (22 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists) and Mark Mitchell (17 points, 5 rebounds). They created their own shot with ease and either found the holes in Iowa's zone or just shot right over it.
The hope is that Iowa can flush this bad performance quickly and rebound with a stronger outing against #20 Iowa State on Thursday night. The worry is that Duke (and TCU before them) have established a pretty clear blueprint for beating Iowa: scheme Kris Murray out of the game and make other players beat you. Other players -- Perkins, McCaffery, Ulis, Rebraca, Bowen, Sandfort, someone -- are going to need to become more consistent threats. If not, we could see a lot more frustrating games like this one.
