#2 Iowa vs #7 Iowa State: Preview

WHO: #7 Iowa State Cyclones (5-0)
WHEN: 1:30 PM CT (Sunday, December 4)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
ANNOUNCERS: Shane Sparks, Jim Gibbons, and Tim Johnson
RADIO: AM 800 KXIC | Hawkeye Radio Network (YouTube)
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app 
TWITTER: @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN

NOTE: Don't forget to follow all the action during the game and chat with your fellow Iowa fans in the Go Iowa Awesome discord! (More info here.)

It's CY-HAWK SZN once again. Which means it's also WINNING STREAK SZN once again. Streaks of note in the wrestling incarnation of the Cy-Hawk series: 

• 11-0 (Iowa's record in the series since the Dan Gable Traveling* Trophy was introduced in 2010)
• 16-0 (Tom Brands' record against Iowa State as Iowa's head coach)
• 17-0 (Iowa's record versus Iowa State in the last 17 meetings on the mat between the team)

* seems like a real misnomer of a name -- it's a "traveling" trophy that has only ever known one home

Overall, Iowa has won 32 of the last 33 (and 56 of the last 60) dual meets between the two programs. In fact, Iowa State has won just 19% of the dual meets between the two programs ever (16 of 85). 

But all streaks end eventually. And over the last 12 months or so we have (unfortunately) seen Iowa winning streaks over Iowa State end in several sports. The Cyclones ended Iowa's three-game winning streak in men's basketball last December, as well as the Iowa women's five-game winning streak over ISU. And back in September Iowa State ended Iowa's six-game winning streak in football as well. 

Are there reasons to believe the end of the streak is more likely this year than in years past? Maybe. Iowa State has gradually been improving under Kevin Dresser in recent years; this year they crushed Wisconsin 26-6 in an early season dual meet and they've rode that momentum to a 5-0 record and a #7 ranking. This is the first time both schools have been ranked in the Top 10 for a CyHawk clash since 2008-09. In addition to this being a better ISU team, we're also dealing with an Iowa team with some notable weak points.

To be blunt, if Spencer Lee and Real Woods were confirmed as healthy and starting for this dual, there would be far less sweating the outcome of this dual -- those two alone would likely be worth 8-10 pints for Iowa, which would swing a potentially tight dual meet into blowout territory. Without those two, and with ongoing question marks at 133, Iowa has had some real problems at the lowest three weights in their early dual meets this season. Lee is (seemingly) not expected to make his debut Sunday, though Woods is listed as one of two options at 141 (along with Drew Bennett) on Iowa's probable lineup for the dual -- so we may yet see him make his debut in an Iowa singlet. 

Let's go weight-by-weight. 

125: If Harris goes, this is a win for Iowa State and a strong possibility for bonus points for them. If Iowa has any other options at 125 (aside from waiting for a healthy Lee), now would be a good time to try them. I'm going to assume that Harris goes and drops a lopsided major decision. 
ISU by MD (ISU 4, IOWA 0)

133: This has been another troublesome weight for Iowa, but unlike 125 and 141, there isn't a savior waiting to ride in and save the day here. Brody Teske has not featured for Iowa in several weeks (reading between the lines, it sounds like he's been dealing with an injury) and Cullan Schriever has had inconsistent results; he was last seen getting dominated by Penn's Michael Colaiocco. I don't have an especially good feeling for Iowa at this weight if he's called upon again here.
ISU by DEC (ISU 7, IOWA 0)

141: Another weight with significant uncertainty. If Bennett goes, I think ISU's hotshot true freshman (4-0 this year and ranked in or near the Top 10 by several services) will be too much for him to handle. If Woods makes his debut instead, I could see Swiderski giving him some problems, but Woods grinding out a win in the end. This would be a high profile place for Woods to make his Iowa debut and I think this is a dual that Tom Brands wants to win, for statement purposes if nothing else. So give me Woods and a decision win. 
Iowa by DEC (ISU 7, IOWA 3) 

149: Murin's matches aren't always for the faint of heart, but they usually end up with our favorite snake-loving Hawkeye wrestler getting his hand raised in victory. Johnson represents an interesting challenge, though -- he's a redshirt freshman who rocketed into the Top 10 at this weight after stunning Wisconsin's Austin Gomez (#2) early in the season, 9-4. Murin presents a different style than Gomez, though, who often hunts big moves and doesn't mind going for broke; Murin tends to be much more cautious (overly so, at times...) and methodical in his approach. I expect a low-scoring match here and one that may come down to a single takedown -- but I also think Murin will be on the scoring that takedown. 
Iowa by DEC (ISU 7, IOWA 6)

157: Until Cobe Siebrecht went and got himself ranked after his thrilling win last week, this looked like it might be the only weight in the dual with no ranked wrestlers. But Siebrecht has entered the rankings now (#25, per InterMat) and should give Iowa a solid edge at this weight. In fact, this might be one of a handful of weights where Iowa has a shot at bonus points, if Siebrecht is able to turn his funk into some back points (or more). I won't go that far, but I do think he gets a solid win to give Iowa the lead at the halfway point of the dual. 
Iowa by DEC (Iowa 9, ISU 7)

165: The second half of the dual jumps off with one of the biggest matches of the meet, one that pits #3 David Carr, a national champion at 157 lbs, against Iowa's hotshot sophomore, #13 Patrick Kennedy. Kennedy has been creeping up the rankings since the season began, but a win over Carr would rocket him into the Top 5 at this weight. Carr hasn't missed a beat since moving up a weight, though -- he's 5-0 with four bonus point wins and his lone decision win was a 7-5 victory over Wisconsin's very tricky Dean Hamiti (he and Alex Marinelli had some real battles last year). I'd love to see Kennedy get the win here, but I think Carr has too much talent and too much experience for now.
ISU by DEC (ISU 10, Iowa 9)

174: Brands vs Broderson is not only a battle between two guys looking to climb into podium contention at 174 lbs, it's also a matchup of two Iowa prep standouts. Both Brands and Broderson were three-time state champions in their Iowa high school days, though they've never previously tussled in high school or college (to the best of my knowledge). I expect a cagey match, but I think Brands gets the better of his fellow three-timer here. 
Iowa by DEC (Iowa 12, ISU 10)

184: Are Assad and Coleman really Top 10-caliber wrestlers and All-America contenders at this weight, or is this just a down year for 184? We'll find out over the course of the season, but this is a nice early test for both guys. This will be Coleman's fourth CyHawk match -- at his third different weight. He's bounced between 174 and 197 during his ISU career, but he seems to have found a good fit at 184. He's off to a 5-0 start this season, including a 13-5 major decision win over #18 Caleb Hopkins. I want to believe in Abe's ability to win a match like this... but I need to see it first. 
ISU by DEC (ISU 13, Iowa 12)

197: This is a rematch from a year ago, when Bastida announced his presence with a surprising 4-2 win over Warner. He had a very good debut season last year overall, going 25-7 and finishing 5th at the NCAA Tournament. He'll give Warner a battle, but we've seen a very focused and aggressive Warner so far this season, which bodes well. Having a bit of experience against Bastida now should be beneficial as well, and while I expect a tight match, I think Warner comes out on the right side this time. 
Iowa by DEC (Iowa 15, ISU 13)

285: This is a rematch from a year ago, when Cassioppi earned a DQ win over Schuyler. Cassioppi was up 9-0 when the match was stopped; Schuyler was disqualified for getting dinged for stalling too many times. Will he actually try to wrestle Tony this year? We'll find out! I expect Tony to win fairly comfortably, but it may end up being something like a 7-0 or 8-1 decision win if Schuyler is active enough to avoid drawing too many stall calls.  
Iowa by DEC (Iowa 18, ISU 13)

So my official prediction is that Iowa's winning streak over Iowa State will not end this year; I believe the Dan Gable Traveling Trophy will stay in Iowa City once again. But this is a tight dual -- there are a lot of weights that are virtual toss-ups and if Bennett goes instead of Woods at 141, I'd be inclined to favor ISU in that match, which would switch the team score to Iowa State 16, Iowa 15. Upsets and toss-up matches will decide this dual, and bonus points could have a big say as well. Let's see if Iowa can bring out their best performance of the season yet in their biggest meet of the season so far.