IOWA (6-2) VS. #20 IOWA STATE (7-1)
DATE: December 8, 2022
TIME: 7:00 p.m. CT
LOCATION: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: FS1
RADIO: Learfield Sports
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
LINE: Iowa -3.5
KENPOM: Iowa -6 (73% win probability)
Less than 48 hours after a loss to Duke in Madison Square Garden, Iowa returns home for another big non-conference game. It's Iowa's second consecutive non-conference game against a ranked opponent and another chance to score a potentially resume-boosting marquee win. It's also, of course, the Cy-Hawk showdown, so in-state bragging rights are on the line. The Cyclones ended some recent Hawkeye dominance in the series last year with wins in men's and women's basketball and followed that up this fall with a win in football as well, though order has been restored by the Hawkeyes this week with a pair of wins in wrestling and women's basketball. Can Fran & Co. make it three-for-three in high-profile Cy-Hawk clashes this week?
Iowa State rocketed to national attention this season when they upset then-#1 North Carolina in the men's side of the Phil Knight Birthday Bonanza out in Portland over Thanksgiving weekend. ISU's 70-65 win over the Tar Heels came a day after they knocked off Villanova 81-79 in OT. Those wins have been losing luster pretty much ever since Iowa State recorded them, though. Villanova has gone 2-2 since that loss and is just 4-5 overall this season and ranks just 53rd in the current KenPom rankings. North Carolina's loss started a four-game tailspin that the Heels still haven't emerged from even as they crashed out of the AP Top 25 (despite being ranked #1 literally two weeks ago) and tumbled to #24 in the KenPom rankings. Iowa State wrapped up their stay in Portland by getting solidly trounced by UConn, although it turns out the Huskies... might just be really, really good? They're trouncing everyone right now.
On paper, Iowa-Iowa State looks like a classic match-up of good offense (Iowa) vs good defense (Iowa State). The Hawkeyes rank 6th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, while the Cyclones rank 13th in defensive efficiency. ISU succeeds on defense by slowing the game down (they're 255th nationally in tempo), contesting the hell out of shots (they're allowing an eFG of 43.3, 21st best), and forcing a lot of turnovers (30.3% of opponent possessions end on turnovers, best in the nation). The Cyclones have been especially good at contesting three-point tries (holding opponents to just 26.3% behind the arc, 15th best), which is an ominous sign for an Iowa team that's been ice cold from long range over the past few weeks. They force a lot of steals (17% of opponent possessions) and also get a lot of turnovers from non-steals as well (13.3% of opponent possessions). The fact that nearly one-third of opponent possessions end in a giveaway is a pretty impressive stat for ISU's defense. Interestingly, this game is going to pit the defense that forces the most turnovers (ISU) against the offense that concedes the fewest turnovers (Iowa). The Hawkeyes have given the ball away on just 12.6% of their possessions this year and only 7% of their possessions have ended in steals. It's fair to say that whichever team wins the turnover battle figures to have a key edge in this game.
The Cyclones have been more pedestrian on the offensive side of the ball, checking in at 113th in offensive efficiency and just 193rd in eFG% (49.3). The one thing they do particularly well on offense is rebound -- they're hauling in 35.3% of their misses (34th best) this year. St. Bonaventure transfer guard Jaren Holmes (6'4", 210) is their leading scorer at 14.8 ppg, though he's been an icy 38% on 2-point shots this year. He's made up for that by making 40% of his three-point attempts. He had 22 points in their win over UNC and has hit double-figures in all but one game this season. Caleb Grill (6'3", 200) is also averaging double-figures (10.5 ppg) and went off against North Carolina (31 points on 7/11 shooting from deep), but he's also been held to single digits in five games this season. Osun Osunniyi (6'10", 235), another St. Bonaventure transfer, is the final ISU player averaging double-figures in scoring (10.0 ppg), as he's done most of his damage inside the arc (54% on 2-point tries). Aljaz Kunc (6'8", 225) is their other starting big, averaging 7.9 ppg and a team-high 6.4 rpg. He's a threat around the perimeter too, or at least wants to be -- he's attempted almost twice as many shots (28) from beyond the arc as inside it (15), although he's shooting much better on twos (73%) than threes (32%). Two other players to note -- freshman guard Tamin Lipsey (6'1", 200) and former Minnesota wing Gabe Kalscheur (6'4", 200). They're both averaging 25+ minutes per game, with Lipsey leading the team in assists (3.8) and Kalscheur serving as a scorer from the wing (8.4 ppg, though he's making just 27% of his long range tries so far).
The big question for Iowa tonight is Kris Murray's health.
Just saw Kris Murray in a walking boot. Sounds like the injury occurred early in the Duke game and he played through it. I know nothing about his status for tomorrow.
— Mark Woodley (@MarkWoodleyTV) December 7, 2022
Woodley is a sports reporter for KWWL and saw Murray at the Iowa women's game last night. If he is dealing with a foot injury, that would certainly help explain why he looked as off as he did against Duke the other night. The state of his foot and his availability (and effectiveness) for this game are very much TBD. If Murray isn't able to play, I'd expect to see more minutes for Connor and Patrick McCaffery (and perhaps some added Big Jelly time for Josh Ogundele as well) and maybe a greater reliance on the back court -- perhaps some three-guard looks with three of four from Tony Perkins, Ahron Ulis, Payton Sandfort, and Dasonte Bowen playing? The risk of that is a small Iowa team getting absolutely hammered by ISU's length and physicality. Keeping Iowa State off the offensive glass could be particularly difficult with that lineup.
UPDATE: This is not the news we were looking for.
Iowa men's basketball SID Matt Weitzel confirms Kris Murray is out for tonight's Iowa State game, called it a "lower-body injury," no timeline for his return. He'll be wearing a boot tonight.
— Mike Hlas (@Hlas) December 8, 2022
If this game gets slowed down and turns into a relative rock fight, it certainly favors ISU, who is at home in that style of game. If Iowa can get them sped up and playing more of an end-to-end game, they should have the upper hand -- especially if they can take advantage of ISU's propensity to foul on defense (they're fouling on over 40% of their possessions on defense, 316th nationally). Doing damage at the free throw line could be an effective way to score points, particularly if Iowa's still not able to get much going from outside. After a run of close games in this series in the mid-'10s, the last four games in the series have all been blowouts, decided by at least 14 points or more (with Iowa winning three of those). This feels like a closer game than that -- unless Iowa's icy shooting touch shows up again. If that's the case, it could be a very long night for the black and gold side of the Cy-Hawk series.
