WHO: Illinois (4-1)
WHEN: 6:30 PM CT (Saturday, October 8)
WHERE: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
TV: BTN
ANNOUNCERS: Cory Provus, Jake Butt, and Elise Menaker
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (TuneIn, or local listings) | SiriusXM Ch. 134 or 195 (app 957)
STREAM: FoxSports.com
MOBILE: Fox Sports app
TWITTER: @IowaFBLive | @IowaAwesome | @IowaOnBTN
WEATHER: partly cloudy, temps in the 60s
LINE: Illinois -4.0 (Total: 36.5)
NOTE: Don't forget to follow all the action during the game and chat with your fellow Iowa fans in the Go Iowa Awesome discord! (More info here.)
We know what the likely keys to victory are for this game because they probably have a lot in common with many of the things Iowa did well in their past slayings of Top 5 opponents. They need to:
Iowa's had a lot of success in rivalry games over the last 5-6 years, but there's no rival that they've had more success against than Illinois. Iowa has owned their eastern border rival for quite some time. Iowa went the entire 2010s without suffering defeat to the Illini. In fact, they've gone 14 years since losing to Illinois -- 2008 was the last time Iowa tasted defeat against them. Granted, there is a small caveat there -- that 14-year span includes just eight games (nine, including tonight's contest) because realignment shenanigans and the machinations of the Delany 9000 scheduling computer conspired to keep Iowa and Illinois apart from 2009 until 2014. But it's not as though Iowa was inadvertently ducking some potent Illinois teams during that stretch -- Illinois has been the same sorry outfit for most of the 21st century.
But it does seem like the times are a-changin' in Champaign. The Illini have cycled through a lot of coaches over the last two decades. Since Kirk Ferentz was hired by Iowa in 1999, Illinois has had five different permanent head coaches and a further three interim coaches when those "permanent" head coaches proved to be not so... permanent. The newest head coach is one with plenty of familiarity with the Big Ten -- and even more familiarity with Iowa: good ol' Bret Bielema. Bielema, a former Iowa player and coach, went 68-24 over seven seasons at Wisconsin. He made a move to Arkansas after that for a move that proved ill-fated (29-34 in five seasons), but he's back in his Big Ten comfort zone now and the results are definitely improving.
Illinois is 4-1 this season, with their only loss being a semi-fluky road loss to Indiana early in the season. They've won their other four games this year by an average of 27 points per game, out-scoring those opponents 127 to 19. That includes an utterly dominant 34-10 mauling of Wisconsin last week... in Madison. These ain't the bumbling Illini we've been accustomed to seeing over the last decade or so. They're starting to look a lot like Bielema's old Wisconsin teams, in fact: burly offensive line, talented running back, and a smothering defense.
The Illini are 7th in the Big Ten in total offense (424.6 yards per game) and averaging 5.6 yards per play. The strength of their attack is the ground game; Illinois is 4th in the Big Ten in rushing offense with 973 yards (194.6 yards per game). Most of that success on the ground has been behind the churning legs of Chase Brown, who's leading the NCAA with 733 yards this season (146.5 yards per game). Slowing down Brown will be Iowa's main objective on defense in this game. Iowa's defensive line was overpowered and overwhelmed by Michigan at times last week and Illinois will bring a similarly big and burly line to this game -- can Iowa's somewhat undersized defensive line hold up better this week?
Ideally, Iowa would probably like to keep Brown in check and force Illinois to move the ball through the air with QB Tommy DeVito. Except... DeVito has been pretty effective this year! He's thrown for 1121 yards (224.2 yards per game, 7.3 yards per attempt) while completing a very nice 69.9% of his passes with nine touchdowns against just two interceptions. That's very solid stuff. (We'd probably chew off our own arms for QB production like that as Iowa fans.) But DeVito also hasn't faced a secondary like Iowa's yet this season, so if the front seven can generate some pressure, hopefully DeVito will make some bad decisions.
The other main challenge Iowa is likely to face in this game is simply moving the ball on offense. Granted, that's been a significant challenge for Iowa against, well, pretty much every opponent this season. But Illinois has the added wrinkle of having a very good defense in their own right. They're conceding just 8.4 ppg, best in the Big Ten. They've also allowed just 1146 yards (229.2 yards per game), second-best in the Big Ten. Their average of 3.8 yards allowed per play is also best in the league. They've been especially dominant on the ground, holding opponents to just 70.2 yards per game, 2.45 yards per game, and conceding a single touchdown. Their pass defense hasn't been bad, either, though, allowing just 159 yards per game and 5.0 yards per attempt, while permitting opponents to complete just 43.7% of their passes and allowing two touchdowns against eight interceptions. Daunting stats, that.
So what's the blueprint for an Iowa victory? It probably involves winning the special teams battle and getting a strong showing from the defense to bottle up Brown and the Illini running game and hopefully forcing DeVito into some mistakes in the passing game. On offense it feels like Iowa will need to hit some chunk plays to move the ball and/or set up scoring opportunities -- it would be very surprising to see this shoddy Iowa offense be able to sustain lengthy drives against this Illini defense.
PREDICTION
Iowa has been good at rebounding from disappointing defeats under Ferentz and they've also been good on the road in recent years (11-4 since 2019). They have a bye week after this game, too, which should make it easier to empty the tanks here, if needed. This game is also a pivotal one for the rest of the season for Iowa -- a loss here drops them to 3-3 (with a trip to Ohio State looming in two weeks) and 1-2 in the Big Ten. Any hopes of winning the West division would probably be in tatters at that point. But... Illinois also looks very good. They have a very stout defense, a great running back, and a quarterback who's been quite good at avoiding mistakes. They're frankly overdue for a win in this rivalry, too -- all winning streaks come to an end at some point and while Iowa's won eight in a row in this series, there have been several close calls, too. That said, am I really going to pick Iowa to lose to Illinois in this game? No. I can't bring myself to do that. Hawkeye Devil Magic rides again.
IOWA 20, ILLINOIS 17
