IOWA (5-0) VS. TCU (4-1)
DATE: November 26, 2022
TIME: 6:00 p.m. CT
LOCATION: Northwest Florida State College Arena, Niceville, FL
TV: CBS Sports Network
RADIO: Learfield Sports
STREAMING: CBS Sports Online
LINE: Iowa -6.5
KENPOM: Iowa -6 (Iowa 70% win probability)
Iowa faces TCU in the Emerald Coast Classic final Saturday evening, with tipoff from Niceville at 6:00. And, yes, announcers Brad Johansen and Steve Lappas will again be on the call for CBS Sports Network. Best bring a stopwatch, a shot clock users' manual and Neil DeGrasse Tyson to explain how time works.
I was going to make a snarky comment about how Iowa and TCU were on the verge of joining the legendary winners of the Emerald Coast Classic, but this tournament actually has some legitimate history. They have been playing this tourney since 2014 -- with a pandemic break in 2020 -- and every champion has eventually made the NCAA Tournament. It might be a game in a JUCO gym in the Florida Panhandle, but the Emerald Coast Classic final is a harbinger of things to come.
TCU is still hard to read after five games. They've played five teams, but all were ranked below Kenpom 200 at the time of the game. They dropped a home game against Northwestern State by a point -- longtime Iowa fans know how that can happen -- and didn't summarily dispatch with winless Cal last night, so there are certainly some signs of concern.
It's Jamie Dixon's seventh season in Fort Worth. The longtime Pitt coach has been unable to build the sustained success he had with the Panthers, but TCU did make the NCAA Tournament field last year, and took Arizona to overtime in the second round before bowing out.
TCU has most of the key components of that team back, but have been dealing with a string of injuries. Junior guard Mike Miles (6'2", 195) missed two games with a bone bruise, returning last night against Cal to pour in 23 points. His backcourt mate from last year, Damion Baugh, is serving an indefinite NCAA suspension for signing with an unapproved agent during the NBA Draft process last spring, so Dixon has turned to Shahada Wells (6'0", 183), who barely played last year but shot 38 percent from three at UT-Arlington two years ago. Junior guard Rondel Walker (6'5", 180) has also gotten three starts and averaged 22 minutes per game, but has functioned as a pure perimeter shooter.
The TCU frontcourt is hindered by a recent back injury to starting power forward Emanuel Miller (6'7", 215). The senior was averaging more than 13 points per game before sitting out last night's game; given the quick turnaround, it seems unlikely we'll see him tonight. They still have plenty of other options, though. Senior forward Chuck O'Bannon (6'6", 215) is the only player to start all five games this season for TCU, and he's essentially a second shooting guard. O'Bannon leads TCU in three-point attempts by a wide margin, but is shooting just 21% from behind the arc. He's also been a stout perimeter defender and draws more than 5 fouls per game, though his 68% free throw rate leaves a bit to be desired. Sophomore JaKobe Coles (6'7", 215) and junior Micah Peavy (6'7", 215, do you see a theme here) work in rotation with O'Bannon and Miller in the forward spots. Both are willing, if not particularly good, perimeter shooters and effective around the rim, but there's not much else in their profiles to mention.
At center, Dixon rotates sophomore Eddie Lampkin (6'11", 263) and junior Xavier Cork (6'9", 230). Lampkin is a solid rebounder and shot blocker, and has the size to cause problems in the lane, but doesn't score much. Cork essentially has no statistical profile whatsoever.
There just isn't that much of note here. TCU certainly has size and length in the frontcourt, but it's not particularly productive. They look to be perimeter-oriented on offense, but they're shooting an atrocious 24% from three. Basically, they clog the lane on defense with all that length, which leads to some decent block rates and long possessions for the opposition, but they also have yet to play a team ranked above 165th in offensive tempo. Iowa is ninth. This is an experienced and deep team, but it's unclear how that translates onto the court, and Iowa's not generally the circumstance where you're afforded time to figure that out.
