IOWA (6-1) VS. DUKE (8-2)
DATE: December 6, 2022
TIME: 8:30 p.m. CT
LOCATION: Madison Square Garden, New York City
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Learfield Sports
STREAMING: ESPN+
LINE: Duke -2.5
KENPOM: Duke -1 (Iowa 47% win probability)
After a week off, Iowa's peculiar sojurn into the Atlantic Coast Conference comes to an end Tuesday night when the Hawkeyes face Duke at Madison Square Garden, as part of the Jimmy V Classic. The ESPN production starts immediately following Illinois-Texas, estimated for 8:30 p.m. God's time.
While Iowa has won its first two games against ACC opponents, Clemson and Georgia Tech are certainly not Duke, not even this Krzyzewski-fee version of the Blue Devils. Tuesday night's game will be a significant step up in opponent and atmosphere for the Hawkeyes. With that said, Iowa played well in their one true road test of the season so far, a hop over the Hudson River at Seton Hall.
Duke's season-to-date is a bit difficult to read. The Blue Devils dropped an early game to Kansas that they led by five points with four minutes remaining. No shame in that. A blowout loss to Purdue in the Phil Knight Birthday Extravaganza was significantly more troubling, but it's not like Duke lost to TCU or anything. Otherwise, Duke has blown out a handful of cupcakes, played close games against Xavier (understandable) and Kenpom No. 216 Oregon State (not so much) at the Phil Knight thing, and recorded a nine-point home win over Ohio State in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. The schedule has been sufficiently difficult, and Duke has performed admirably, if not perfectly.
It's Duke, so you know what's coming: There are four freshmen in the starting lineup, three of which were Rivals five-star recruits. The best of them, at least so far this season, is 6'10" center Kyle Filipowski, the nation's No. 7-ranked recruit; if that name sounds familiar, it's probably because Iowa was in Filipowski's final five. He's been all that was advertised: He's averaging a team-high 15.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, with 36% shooting from behind the arc and 84% on five free throw attempts per game. He's currently seventh in the Kenpom Player of the Year standings, three spots ahead of Kris Murray. He's the straw that stirs the drink and the mop that cleans it up.
The hardest part of dealing with this Duke team, though, is that Filipowski is a center in name only. They are gigantic across the front line, with fellow five-star freshman Dereck Lively (7'1", 230) and senior Ryan Young (6'10", 235) sharing time at the power forward spot, and a trio of freshmen Mark Mitchell (6'8", 220) and Dariq Whitehead (6'7", 220) and senior Jacob Grandison (6'6", 190) at the small forward. Mitchell has been the most prolific scorer of that bunch (9.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg), with Young posting solid numbers off the bench (7.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg). The rest have mostly played limited roles, but the sheer volume of bigs is staggering.
In the backcourt, Duke is utilizing -- SURPRISE! -- another freshman, Australian import Tyrese Proctor (6'5", 175). Proctor has struggled to find his footing, though, shooting just 21% from three and averaging 7.5 points per game. He's been coupled with junior point guard Jeremy Roach (6'2",180), the only non-freshman starting for Duke since Lively replaced Young in the lineup for the fourth game of the season. Roach is the only non-Filipowski averaging double figures this year, with 12.2 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 31% from three. Sophomore Jaylen Blakes (6'2", 200) fills out the backcourt rotation.
It says something for how different this Duke team is that the Blue Devils are shooting just 30.5% from three and at a 48.5% effective rate overall. Those are numbers in the bottom half of Division I basketball. Duke makes up for the poor shooting, though, by obliterating opponents on the offensive glass. The Blue Devils rebound 41 percent of their own misses, second nationally, fractionally behind only Mississippi State. The offensive rebounding, coupled with only an above-average free throw shooting percentage and resistance to steals and thoroughly average to below-average results everywhere else, is enough to raise Duke to 17th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. Defensively, their length and athleticism cause perimeter-oriented teams problems, leading to a paltry 27% shooting percentage from three.
Iowa's great weakness from the first quarter of the season has been interior defense, caused largely by a lack of guys to throw at it. This does not bode well for the Hawkeyes on Tuesday night, as there probably aren't enough big guys on the roster to match Duke. That forces action to the perimeter, where Iowa has struggled to score consistently even without a 6'10" guy with his hand in your face to shoot over. If the Hawkeyes can overcome that, this Duke team is the most beatable in many years. But it's still a big "if" to get there.
