This week is a big week for Iowa basketball -- for both the men's and women's teams. It's a big week because this week has some big-time opportunities for both squads. Tonight, the Iowa men face #15 Duke (8-2) on ESPN (8:30 PM CT). Tomorrow night the Iowa women take on #10 Iowa State (6-1) on ESPN2 (6:00 PM CT). And on Thursday night the Iowa men wrap things up with #20 Iowa State (7-1) on FS1 (7:00 PM CT). That is a loaded week of games, for two teams still seeking signature victories this season.
The Iowa men have gone 6-1 through the first month of the season, but their best win was either a comfortable 83-67 road win over Seton Hall or their nail-biter 74-71 win over Clemson at the Emerald Coast Classic. Neither is a Quad 1 win at the moment -- Seton Hall is just 114th in the NET rankings (they're only 4-4 on the season), while Clemson is 87th. By comparison, Iowa is 20th in the NET rankings, while Duke is 18th and Iowa State is 26th. As a refresher, here's how the Quad 1/2/3/4 wins break down:
- Quad 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quad 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
- Quad 4: Home 160+, Neutral 200+, Away 240+
Wins over Duke and Iowa State would both count as Quad 1 wins, although the Iowa State might be tenuous -- they're just 26th now and a loss to Iowa could knock them out of the Top 30. Regardless, they would both be Good Wins.
Both games look winnable for Iowa as well -- Iowa isn't a David-style underdog in either of these games. Vegas lists Duke as a 2.5-point favorite tonight, while KenPom has them as a 1-point favorite. There isn't a Vegas spread yet for the Iowa-Iowa State game on Thursday, but KenPom has Iowa -6 and gives the Hawkeyes a 73% chance of winning that game. Of course, on paper the TCU game also looked very winnable, too -- KenPom rankings are lovely but they don't guarantee wins when the ball is tipped.
A Duke win would resonate more because, well, it's Duke. This a post-Coach K Duke, but they're still absolutely loaded to the gills with blue-chip talent and if that talent gels under first year head coach Jon Scheyer, they could be one of the nation's best teams by the end of the season. I don't think it's going out on much of a limb to say that it's probably better to face Duke in December than in March. A win over the Blue Devils would very likely be a great feather in Iowa's cap and an excellent item on their resume when tournament season rolls around in a few months. Plus, beating Duke always feels great, though Iowa doesn't have a lot of experience in doing so -- the Hawkeyes are just 1-7 all-time against the Blue Devils, with the lone win coming back in 1994.
The Cy-Hawk showdown with Iowa State is always an important game -- bragging rights matter! -- but it certainly has some added juice when both teams are actually good and look capable of making the NCAA Tournament. Iowa State made some noise early this year when they upset then-#1 North Carolina and while that win has lost some luster since then with the Tar Heels on a four-game losing streak and crashing out of the Top 25, this still looks like a pretty solid ISU team. They're 1-1 in Quad 1 games and 1-0 in Quad 2 games; in addition to the UNC win, they also have solid wins over Villanova and St. John's. It's unclear where a home win over Iowa State will stack up at season's end, but I doubt it will be worse than a Quad 2 victory. And resume-building aside, losing to Iowa State in Iowa City is just a bad look -- we don't want to do that, right, guys?
Speaking of that... the Iowa women have their own elite showdown at home with Iowa State this week. Their game with ISU is probably a bit more critical than the men's, to be honest. One, the ISU women's team looks like one of the nation's best -- and they look poised to stay in that heady company all season, which means a win over them would carry a lot of value. Two, Iowa and Iowa State are both likely to be angling for top seeds and home-court advantage at the NCAA Tournament in March -- a win in this game could serve as a key tiebreaker if their resumes have a lot in common. And three, the Iowa women have already missed on their other chances to log a big non-conference win this year -- it would hurt to whiff on all of them. They suffered a neutral court defeat to UConn and followed that up with a home loss to NC State in which their defense was a total no-show. Losing all three of their big games in non-conference play would definitely put Iowa in a tough spot when it comes to getting a great seed at the NCAA Tournament.
Again, these games are opportunities -- wins here could do a lot of good for Iowa as the season progresses. Losses won't hurt much (though a loss by the women could be harmful to their seeding prospects) and there will be ample opportunities for the men and women to record big wins against Big Ten competition this season. But missing out on opportunities early puts greater pressure on opportunities later in the season -- and could also lower the ceiling for these teams, at least in terms of seeds and ranks.
And beyond all that? Big wins are just plain fun. It was a blast to watch Caitlin Clark & Co. tear through the Big Ten's best at the end of last season and we're eager to see them do the same to some top-tier opponents this year. Likewise, we want to see the Iowa men go out and claim some big, exciting wins, too. The opportunities to do so are waiting for them this week -- hopefully the Hawkeyes can seize them.
